Wednesday, January 20, 2021

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Stimulus Hopes, No Inauguration Violence, Earnings Optimism, Tech/Homebuilding Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Around Even
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 21.7 -6.6%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,076.0 +73.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 129.87 -.49%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.2 -.49%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 48.8 -5.4%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 133.0 +33.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .70 -1.4%
  • NYSE Arms 1.55 +31.9%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.92-1.23%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 489.94 -.67%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.61 -3.06%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 115.0 +4.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 61.92 -.92%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 166.41 -1.54%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 185.22 +.13%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 7.75 +.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 14.75 unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -5.0 -1.25 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  69.0 -2.75 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 73.25 +.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.67 +.40%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .08% unch.
  • Yield Curve 96.0 -1.25 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 164.85 USD/Metric Tonne -.67%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 49.90 -2.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 143.60 -5.0 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 60.70 -2.5 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.12 +1.0 basis point
  • 100.0% chance of no change at March 17th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at April 28th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +146 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -10 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +16 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/medical/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

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