Monday, July 19, 2021

Stocks Falling Substantially into Final Hour on Global Virus Shutdown Worries, Earnings Outlook Concerns, Oil Plunge, Commodity/Financial Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing Inline
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 24.5 +32.6%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,243.0 -622.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.37 -.60%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.7 +2.7%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 54.3 +3.4%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 80.0  -8.0 points
  • Total Put/Call 1.0 -.99%
  • NYSE Arms 1.42 -12.9%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.21 +4.44%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 434.68 +6.0%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 56.41 +.28%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 110.0 +4.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 85.20 +.9%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 167.26 +3.5%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KCCB) 38.89 -.35%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 6.75 -1.25 basis points
  • TED Spread 9.0 -.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.5 -.5 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  73.0 +1.75 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 73.75 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.66 -.75%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% unch.
  • Yield Curve 106.0 -3.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 210.9 USD/Metric Tonne -1.25%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 17.6 -2.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 67.4 -6.6 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 59.2 -4.5 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.28 -6.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 15th meeting
US Covid-19:
  • 68 infections/100K people(last 7 days) +1/100K people
  • 13% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) unch.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -507 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -169 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -52 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my commodity/tech/industrial/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Took profits in my commodity sector longs and added to my tech sector longs
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

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