Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:            

• Booming Chip Exports Mask Misery in Taiwan’s Services Sectors.
• Asia Stocks Mixed After Powell as China Data Loom: Markets Wrap.  
• Oil Extends Losses on U.S. Stockpile Gain While OPEC+ Nears Deal.
• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.
• Overdose Deaths Hit U.S. Record; Asia Cases Soar: Virus Update.
• Key Democrats Hold Back on Budget Deal Until Details Offered.
• Powell Sees Tapering a 'Ways Off,' Gets House Inflation Grilling.
• Powell Says Stable Coins Need Regulation to Protect U.S. Public.  
• Moderna’s Next Act Is Using mRNA vs. Flu, Zika, HIV, and Cancer.
• Amazon Sued by U.S. Product-Safety Agency Over Dangerous Items.

Wall Street Journal:

• U.S. Drug-Overdose Deaths Soared Nearly 30% in 2020.
• The Sanders Democrats Go For Broke. 
• EU, China Unveil Plans to Cut Carbon Dioxide Emissions.
• Texas Democrats Suppress the Vote.
• Two-Thirds of Miami Condo Buildings Are Older Than 30 Years. The Repair Bills Are Coming Due.
• Lumber Prices Are Down, but Don’t Expect New Houses to Cost Less.

Fox News:

• Texas Speaker calls on state Dems who hopped on private plane to dodge voting bill to forfeit earnings.
  

CNBC.com:

• How inflation could prompt the largest Social Security cost-of-living adjustment in decades.
• The junk bond market is on fire this year as yields hit a record low.
• FDA chief tells reporter ‘move on’ when pressed on Biogen Alzheimer’s drug approval..
• Delta, Apple, Best Buy are some stocks that will benefit from consumer spending rebound, Cramer says.

MarketWatch.com:        

• The Child Tax Credit will boost spending at Walmart, Amazon, Wingstop and other consumer brands. 
  
• 19 dividend stocks with yields of at least 4.26% that will help you combat inflation.
• Game on? Netflix hires first videogame executive, signaling a new approach.

Zero Hedge:

• South African Army 'Activates' All Reserve Members Amid Worsening Social Unrest 
• Are Teachers' Unions Evil?
• Natural Infection May Offer Better Protection Against Delta Variant, Israeli Health Ministry Says.
• No Victory Lap For Governors Who Locked Down America.
• Georgia County Ballot Images Prompt Speculation Of "Provable Fraud".
• Democrats Unveil Bill To Decriminalize (And Tax) Marijuana.
• California Relaxes Over Unmasked Students After Policies Conflict With CDC Guidance.
• US Waives Sanctions On Frozen Iranian Oil Funds.
• Brazil's Bolsonaro Hospitalized After Hiccupping For Over A Week.
• Environmentalists "Feel Burned" By Biden's Infrastructure Bill, Want Another $2.1 Trillion In Climate Spending.
• Watch: Radical Fed Morphs From Central Bank To Bailout Kingpin... And Americans Aren't Paying Attention.
• Biden Rails Against Texas For "Making It Easy To Vote & Hard To Cheat" According To Gov Abbott.
• US Consumers So Far Completely Undeterred By Delta Variant.
• Bonds, Bitcoin, Bullion, & Big-Tech Bid As 'Powell Promises' Purge PPI Panic.

Newsmax:

• Time on Their Side, Texas Republicans Wait for Dems' Return, Hone '22 Message.
• Rep. Mike Garcia: Biden WH 'Hell Bent' on Helping 'Bad Guys' in Cuba.
  

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• United Nations Formally Invited by Biden Admin to Investigate “the Scourge of Racism, Racial Discrimination, and Xenophobia” in the US.
• DOJ Watchdog Says FBI Allowed USA Gymnastics Team Doctor Larry Nassar to Get Away with Child Sex Crimes.

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 86.75 -1.25 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 37.0 -1.0 basis point.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.12 -.07%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,043.0 -39.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.85 +1.26%.
• FTSE 100 futures -.26%.

• S&P 500 futures -.20%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.07%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (BK)/1.00
• (CTAS)/2.31
• (HTLD)/.26
• (MS)/1.64
• (PGR)/1.05
• (TSM)/5.24
• (TFC)/1.17
• (USB)/1.13
• (UNH)/4.45
  

After the Close:

• (AA)/1.28
• (AOUT)/.23
• (MRTN)/.26
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Empire Manufacturing for July is estimated to rise to 18.0 versus 17.4 in June.
• Philly Fed Business Outlook Index for July is estimated to fall to 28.0 versus 30.7 in June.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 350K versus 373K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 3300K versus 3339K prior.
• The Import Price Index MoM for June is estimated to rise +1.1% versus a +1.1% gain in May. 
• The Import Price Index Ex Petroleum MoM for June is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +.9% gain in May.
• The Export Price Index MoM for June is estimated to rise +1.4% versus a +2.2% gain in May.
  

9:15 am EST

• Industrial Production MoM for June is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +.8% gain in May.
• Capacity Utilization for June is estimated to rise to 75.6% versus 75.2% in May.
• Manufacturing Production for June is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.9% gain in May. 
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone CPI report, weekly Langer Consumer Comfort Index, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (COUP) analyst day and the (LOW) fireside chat could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are slightly lower, weighed down by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.