Thursday, July 08, 2021

Stocks Lower into Afternoon on Global Shutdown Worries, Fed Taper Concerns, Technical Selling, Road & Rail/Homebuilding Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 18.3 +12.8%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,940.0 -202.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.25 -.34%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.03 +2.3%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 47.4 -.04%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 102.0  -6.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .85 +1.2%
  • NYSE Arms 1.31 -13.2%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.03 +2.4%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 387.50 +2.0%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 55.3 +2.6%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 107.0 +6.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 88.94 +2.6%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 161.63 +2.8%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KCCB) 38.71 +.14%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 8.25 +.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 9.0 -.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -6.25 -1.25 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  70.0 +1.75 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 73.75 +.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.79 -.19%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .05% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 110.0 +1.0 unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 205.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.23%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index .4 -.7 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 91.60 -1.5 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 67.9 -.9 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.24 -3.5 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 15th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -278 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -207 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -6 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Lower: On losses in my commodity/industrial/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

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