Thursday, July 15, 2021

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Valuation Concerns, Global Virus Variant Worries, Dollar Strength, Tech/Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing Inline
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 17.7 +8.4%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,970.0 -112.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.83 -.40%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.63 -.69%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 50.8 +4.6%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 87.0  -20.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .86 +4.88%
  • NYSE Arms 1.12 +3.7%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.15 +1.5%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 402.07 +2.9%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 54.69 +1.2%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 105.0 +2.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 85.20 -2.67%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 161.44 +1.08%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KCCB) 39.02 +.04%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 7.75 unch.
  • TED Spread 8.0 -.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.75 +.5 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  70.5 +.75 basis point
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 73.75 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.97 -.32%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 111.0 unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 212.20 USD/Metric Tonne -.59%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 26.8 +4.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 75.70 -1.6 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 62.5 +3.4 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.31 -4.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 15th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -249 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -100 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -35 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my commodity/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

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