Friday, July 09, 2021

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on China Rate Cut, Dovish Fed Commentary, Oil Gain, Commodity/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 16.2 -14.7%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,139.0 +250.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.14 +.67%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.8 -1.5%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 46.4 -4.0%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 131.0  +25.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .84 -2.3%
  • NYSE Arms .43 -70.3%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 48.09 -1.6%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 381.43 -1.6%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 54.17 -2.0%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 106.0 -1.0 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 89.17 +.33%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 159.22 -1.9%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KCCB) 38.71 unch.
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 8.25 unch.
  • TED Spread 8.0 -1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -5.75 +.5 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  70.25 +.25 basis point
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 73.5 -.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.94 +.28%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .05% unch.
  • Yield Curve 112.0 +2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 206.65 USD/Metric Tonne +1.2%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -.3 -.7 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 87.10 -4.5 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 70.9 +3.0 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.29 +5.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 15th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +635 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +99 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -3 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my commodity/industrial/tech/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

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