Tuesday, July 06, 2021

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Virus Variant Concerns, China Tech Crackdown, Oil Decline, Commodity/Financial Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 16.6 +10.0%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,155.0 -240.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.14 -.62%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.75 +2.1%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 48.6 +2.4%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 119.0  +15.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .85 +10.4%
  • NYSE Arms 1.96 +69.0%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 47.53 +1.3%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 378.92 +1.1%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.84 +.98%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 101.0 -4.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 84.91 +1.14%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 157.51 +2.6%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KCCB) 38.60 -.71%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 7.75 +1.0 basis point
  • TED Spread 9.5 +.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -5.0 -1.5 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  68.25 +1.25 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 73.5 +.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.08 -.69%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% unch.
  • Yield Curve 121.0 +1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 206.05 USD/Metric Tonne -1.39%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 1.6 -9.9 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 96.50 -11.7 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 71.0 -3.4 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.33 -1.0 basis point
  • 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 15th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -233 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -222 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +3 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my commodity/industrial/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

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