Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:            

• EU Can Cut Russian Energy Dependence Sooner Than Thought: Draghi.
• Ukraine Update: Mariupol ‘Basically Encircled’ Yet Hasn’t Fallen.
  
• Abramovich Visits Kyiv, Seeks to Revive Ukraine-Russia Talks. 
• Global Investors Flee China Fearing That Risks Eclipse Rewards.  
• Beijing Crackdown Derails Alibaba’s Bid for Amazon-Size Profit.  
• Recession Risks Duel Resilience Hopes in Global Economy Outlook.
• Treasuries’ Biggest Foreign Buyers to Return on Weakening Yen.
• Bearish Yen Bets Mount as Currency Slumps for 12th Straight Day.
• U.S. Futures Dip as Oil, Gas Rise; China Data Loom: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Jumps as Week Opens on Libyan Disruption, Russian Warning.
  
• Ukraine Resistance Stalls Putin’s Victory Drive: Weekend Reads.
• Goldman Sachs Sees U.S. Recession Odds at 35% in Next Two Years.  
• Powell May Be About to Seal Deal on a Half-Point Hike: Eco Week.
  
• Elon Musk’s Cryptic Tweet Channeling Elvis Baffles Investors.

Wall Street Journal:

• Latest Updates From the War.
• Officials in U.S. Adopt New Message on Covid-19 Behaviors: It’s Your Call.
• The Coming Green-Energy Inflation. Demand for metals and other commodities will keep skyrocketing unless mandates are reversed.
• Biden’s Immigration Damage. By rescinding Title 42 without a substitute, he’s doing more to help restrictionists than Donald Trump did. 
• Inside a Shanghai Mass Quarantine Center.
• Russia and Ukraine Build Forces for Looming Battles in East.
• Bond Rout Threatens More Pain for Investors.
• War Deepens Debt Woes Across Developing World.
• Utilities Plan Electric Grid Upgrades, Adding to Power Bills.
• Car Prices Expected to Remain Elevated in 2022.
• Decade-High Mortgage Rates Pose Threat to Spring Housing Market.

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (COST), (FDX), (PGNY) and (D).

Fox News:   

• McCarthy: How Biden could have 'saved thousands of lives' in Ukraine.
• Suspect in mall shooting that left 14 people injured could soon return to work under bond conditions.
• Sunshine State rejects record number of math textbooks over 'prohibited topics'.
• Russian energy giant supplying gas to Europe — through enemy territory.

CNBC:

• Mariupol hasn’t surrendered to Russia, PM says; at least 5 dead, 20 injured in Kharkiv attack.
• China’s Covid policy forces a city three times the size of New York to lock down.

Zero Hedge:

• CIA Bombshell: The Sussman Data Was "User Created".
• Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open - Easter weekend news round up.
• "Every Fed Hiking Cycle Ends With Default And Bankruptcy Of Governments, Banks And Investors".
• The Bond Market Is Calling For A Recession In Mid-2023... But That Has Not Eased Inflation Expectations.
• Bird Flu Outbreak "Above And Beyond Rate Of Spread" Observed In 2015, Warns Industry Expert 
• China's Digital Yuan, Biggest Threat To The West, Is Overshadowed By Russian War, Kyle Bass Warns.
• "The Light Is Killing Me" - Ukrainian Woman Describes Brutal Conditions Inside Shanghai Quarantine Center.
• 'Inflationary Psychology' Has Set In - Dislodging It Won't Be Easy.
• Drug And Alcohol Abuse Slowing Labor Force Participation Rate, Fed Study Finds.
• The Greatest Danger To The Political-Corporate-Media Triumvirate Is That Musk Is Right.
• Fourth Bus Of Illegal Migrants From Texas Border Arrives In Washington DC.
• Something Is Rotten In The State Of Shanghai's Latest COVID Lockdowns.
• "I Think It's Gone Too Far" - Pioneering Trans Psychologist Says Too Many Teens Are Taking Hormones "Because It's Trendy".
• We Still Haven't Reached The Inflation Finale.
• Truck Drivers Are Facing Another Bloodbath.
• Zelensky Says Ukraine Won't Give Up Territory In Donbas, Claims Putin Could Use Tactical Nukes.
• How Much Radiation Is Emitted By Popular Smartphones?
• MSNBC Blast From The Past: It's Our Job To Control How People Think... Not Elon Musk's.
• China Threat Grows As Beijing's 'Tech-Based' Plans Dominate Washington's 'Finances-First' Approach.

MarketWatch.com:           

• A retired nurse lost $43,000 to bitcoin — watch out for red flags online.
  
• Mortgage rates soar to highest level in over a decade — even wealthy home buyers are feeling the pain.
  
• Inflation is raging, but these 16 companies have pricing power.

NewsMax:  

• Ukrainians Defy Deadline to Surrender in Mariupol or Die.
  
• Gordon Chang: COVID Policies 'Critical Threat' to China's Rule.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• 26-Year-Old Former Razorback Lineman Dies from Heart Attack.
• Democrat NYC Mayor Admits Progressive Politics Play a Role in Increased Crime (VIDEO).
• Austin Texas To Implement Pilot Of Radical Socialist ‘Guaranteed Income’ Program.
• Zelenskyy Calls for Biden to Visit Ukraine: ‘He Should Come Here’ (VIDEO).
• Stacey Abrams Increased Her Net Worth 3,000% in Less than 4 Years – What Is the Real Source of Her Income?
• Private Group Sues Philidelphia Mayor, Health Commissioner and Others for Reinstituting Insane COVID Mandates.
• This Is How They Steal: Remote Scanners Track Orange County Ballots at Drop Boxes. Why Not Just Collect Daily?
• Georgia’s Governor Kemp, Who Certified the Corrupted 2020 Election, Now Tries to Distance Himself from the Election.
• Zelenskyy Says the World Should ‘Be Ready’ For Nuclear War With Russia (VIDEO).
• Florida Department of Education Rejects 54 Math Textbooks for ‘Attempting to Indoctrinate Students’ With Critical Race Theory, Common Core.

The Epoch Times:

• Experts Warn of China’s Near-Monopoly on Freight Container Production, Threatening Global Supply Chain.
• ‘More People Will Be Killed by Lockdown Than by COVID-19’: Shanghai’s Top Pandemic Expert.

Twitter:

• @JackPosobiec - WEF’s Yuval Noah Harari: “Free will is over”. (video) This is the future Klaus Schwab wants. (video)
  

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 803,168 Reports(+3,437 from prior week) Through April 1st, 2021.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs). 
• COVID Money Tracker. Tracking the Covid response.
  

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -1.25% to -.5% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 108.25 -.25 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 67.25 +.25 basis point.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 53.30 +.12%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 4,614.0 +11.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 25.5 +1.8%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.
• S&P 500 futures -.63%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -1.1%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (BAC)/.74
• (BK)/.86
• (SCHW)/.84

After the Close:

• (JBHT)/1.94
• (PNFP)/1.58
  

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• The NAHB Housing Market Index for April is estimated to fall to 77.0 versus 79.0 in March.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China GDP report could also impact trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by consumer and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.