Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:           

• EU Tells Gas Companies Not to Bend to Russia’s Demand for Rubles.
  
• Biden Approves More Gas Export Projects as Russia Cuts Supply to Europe.
  
• Ukraine Latest: White House Readies Long-Term Assistance Package.  
• Major Shipping Firm Sees Signs of Supply-Chain Bottlenecks Easing.  
• China’s Hangzhou Starts Mass Covid Testing; Shanghai Cases Drop.
• Banks Slash Yuan Forecasts as China’s Economy Reels From Covid.
• U.S. Futures Rise, Stocks Steady as Meta Aids Mood: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Slips as Investors Weigh China’s Lockdowns, Russian War.
• Bill Hwang’s Archegos Catastrophe Was Wilder Than Anyone Knew.
• Fed Nominees to Wait Until Ailing Democrats Return, Brown Says.   
• Stock Rout Is Fed’s ‘Best-Case Scenario’ as Powell-Put Era Ends.  
• More NYC Apartment Renters Are Moving Out Instead of Paying Higher Rates.  
• Apollo Throws Struggling Carvana $1.6 Billion Junk-Bond Lifeline.

Wall Street Journal:

• Russian Gas Stoppages Spur Europe’s Race for New Energy Supplies.
• Latest Updates: U.S. Weighs Listing Russia as State Sponsor of Terrorism.
• Russia’s Energy Extortion of Poland and Bulgaria. With more U.S. help for Europe, the ploy could boomerang on Vladimir Putin.
• Fentanyl Kills So Fast That Aid Groups Are Rethinking How to Fight Overdoses.

Fox News:   

• Teachers union boss facing potentially serious consequences over alleged 'doctored quotation'.
• Randi Weingarten says parental rights bills are 'the way in which wars start'.
• Fauci forced to backtrack after claiming US is 'certainly' out of 'pandemic phase'.

CNBC.com:

• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Meta, Qualcomm, Ford, PayPal and more.
• Adjustable-rate mortgage demand doubles as interest rates hit the highest since 2009.
• Qualcomm revenue pops 41% driven by Android phone chip sales.
• Pinterest jumps after earnings beat.

MarketWatch:            

• Ford’s Rivian investment drags down Q1 earnings, and supply-chain challenges remain.
  
• Teladoc stock plunges more than 30% after earnings outlook slashed, massive impairment charge.  
• PayPal cuts earnings outlook, but user growth quells some fears.

Zero Hedge:

• DHS Creating 'Disinformation Governance Board' Ahead Of Midterms.
• Russia Hoax: Durham Staffer Accidentally Reveals Emails Showing Coordination Between Fusion GPS And Media.
• Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open - US stocks ended a choppy session mixed, although futures benefitted post-Meta earnings.
• Germany Supports 'Gradual' EU Ban On Russian Oil As Moscow Rejects Gas Payment From Seized Trading Unit.
• Plastic Grocery Bag Bans Actually Boost Sale Of Small Plastic Garbage Bags: Study.
• Iran & China Declare Deepened Military Cooperation To Confront 'US Unilateralism'.
• More Secret Gender Transition Closets Discovered In Public Schools.
• "Bigger Mess Than Last Year" - Global Supply Chain Crisis Could Emerge By Summer.
• Luongo On Disney's Demise: "This Is Not The Way".
• Rates reversing?
• Biden Administration Releases Plan To Deal With Expected Illegal Immigration Surge.
• Fauci Admits "Pandemic Phase" Of COVID Is Over.
• Southern California Asks Millions To Cut Outdoor Water Use Amid Drought.
• Newsquawk US Market Wrap: Stocks pause and DXY firms amid China lockdowns, peak earnings season, and the EU gas crisis.
• Facebook Soars After Reporting Solid User Growth Despite Revenue Miss And Weak Guidance.
• FANG FUBAR, Bonds & Boeing Battered As Dollar Index Nears 20-Year-High.

 Newsmax: 

• US Judge Halts WH Preparations for End of US Asylum Limit.  
• Rep. Reschenthaler: 'America First' Driving 'New Republican Party'.

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• Hillary Clinton Takes a Swipe at Trump, Goes on Woke, Feminist Rant at Madeleine Albright’s Funeral (VIDEO).
• Twitter Source Leaks Internal Slack Channel Reconfirming Shadowbanning is Real (VIDEO).
• **HUGE** Georgia State Elections Board FINALLY Issue First Subpoenas to True the Vote on Ballot Trafficking Investigation INCLUDING INFORMATION ON ALLEGED WHISTLEBLOWER!
• Biden to Teachers: “They’re Not Somebody Else’s Children, They’re Yours When You’re in the Classroom” (VIDEO).
  
• Wow! McCarthy DEFENDS Leaked Jan. 10, 2021 Audio and GOP Lawmakers Cheer — Talked of Removing Trump from Office, Urging Tech Giants to Silence Conservatives.
• JUST IN: Masked, Shielded, and Quadruple-Vaxxed Maxine Watters, 83, Tests Positive for Covid-19 – Says She’s “Grateful to be Fully Vaccinated”.
• Madrid’s Deputy Minister for Public Health Claims Cases of Hepatitis on Young Kids Might be “Related to Covid-19 Vaccine”.
• California Democrats to Raise State’s Gas Tax to 53.6-Cents Per Gallon This Summer.
• Goya Foods CEO Warns We’re on the Precipice of a Global Food Crisis.
• DHS Chief Mayorkas Absurdly Claims, “We Have Effectively Managed” Biden’s Border Crisis – As Millions of Illegals Pour Over the Border (VIDEO).
• Former Rep. Steve King Reveals What Really Goes On In Capitol Hill: McCarthy ‘Worshipped’ The New York Times And Is Forcing GOP Members To Sell Out To Globalists.
• Welp, That Backfired: LibsofTikTok Trolls WaPo Crybully Taylor Lorenz After Gaining Hundreds of Thousands of Followers on Twitter, Breaking ONE MILLION.

The Epoch Times:

• White House Visitor Logs Reveal Meetings Between Hunter Biden Business Partner and Joe Biden.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 807,241 Reports(+4,073 from prior week) Through April 15th, 2022.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 122.75 +1.75 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS  79.75 -1.75 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.37 -.01%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,760.0 -17.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 29.9 -3.1%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.25%.

• S&P 500 futures +.63%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +1.09%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (MO)/1.09
• (AEP)/1.20
• (BAX)/.81
• (BC)/2.33
• (CAT)/2.60
• (CMCSA)/.81
• (DISH)/.75
• (DPZ)/3.08
• (LLY)/2.30
• (FCN)/1.44
• (GWW)/6.12
• (HSY)/2.10
• (IP)/.56
• (IRM)/.71
• (JKS)/.49
• (KDP)/.33
• (LH)/6.01
• (MA)/2.16
• (MCD)/2.17
• (MRK)/1.83
• (NOC)/5.98
• (BTU)/2.20
• (PHM)/1.73
• (RS)/7.18
• (SIRI)/.08
• (SAH)/2.37
• (LUV)/-.30
• (SWK)/1.70
• (STRA)/.74
• (TROW)/.76
• (TWTR)/.02
  

After the Close:

• (AMZN)/8.50
• (AAPL)/1.43
• (BZH)/1.05
• (FSLR)/-.44
• (GILD)/1.81
• (INTC)/.79
• (KLAC)/4.82
• (MHK)/2.91
• (OLN)/2.34
• (RMAX)/.50
• (HOOD)/-.36
• (SKYW)/-.01
• (SYK)/1.94
• (TEX)/.47
• (TRUP)/-.02
• (X)/2.95
• (WDC)/1.49
• (ZEN)/.15
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• 1Q GDP is estimated to rise +1.0% versus a +6.9% gain in 4Q.
• 1Q Personal Consumption is estimated to rise +3.5% versus a +2.5% gain in 4Q.
• The GDP Price Index for 1Q is estimated to rise +7.2% versus a +7.1% gain in 4Q.
• The Core PCE QoQ for 1Q is estimated to rise +5.5% versus a +5.0% gain in 4Q.
• Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to fall to 180K versus 184K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 1399K versus 1417K prior.
  

11:00 am EST

• The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for April is estimated to fall to 35.0 versus 37.0 in March.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The German CPI report, 7Y T-Note auction and the weekly EIA natural gas inventory report could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.