Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:           

• Russia to Cut Gas to Poland and Bulgaria, Making Energy a Weapon.
  
• Ukraine Latest: Russia Cuts Gas, UN Seeks Mariupol Relief Role.  
• Russia Left Swaths of Ukraine Seeded With Mines, Aid Group Says.
  
• U.S. Seeks More Authority to Seize Russian Assets to Aid Ukraine.  
• Satellite Data Show Extent of China’s Crippling Lockdowns.
• China Running Out of Ways to Stem Self-Made Market Meltdown.
  
• BOJ to Reaffirm Easing Stance as Yen Risk Mounts: Decision Guide. 
• Stocks Struggle, Bonds Rise as Growth Outlook Dims: Markets Wrap.
  
• U.S. Diesel Futures Close at Record High as Shortage Deepens.
  
• Chipotle Says Food Inflation Pressure May Persist Into 2023.  
• Texas Republicans Bear Down on Wall Street Over Its Embrace of Climate Policies.   
• Churning Stocks Dealing Swift Punishment to Anyone Who Dares Buy.

Wall Street Journal:

• In Ukrainian Villages, Fears Grow for Men Taken to Russia.
• Russia’s Lavrov Says NATO Is Using Ukraine as a Proxy, Warns Against World War III.
• Latest Updates: Russia to Stop Supplying Natural Gas to Poland and Bulgaria.
• Musk Bets Twitter Users Will Like a More Freewheeling Platform.
• China Looms Large Over Twitter’s Future.
• Harvard Pledges $100 Million to Redress Ties to Slavery.
• Business Schools Try to Talk M.B.A. Prospects Into Quitting Their Jobs.
• Biden Seriously Considering Student-Loan Forgiveness, Officials Say.

Fox News:   

• McEnany on liberals' meltdown over Elon Musk buying Twitter: 'They fear a level playing field'.

CNBC.com:

• GM will start tying executive compensation to electric vehicle targets.
• Tesla stock closes down more than 12% after Musk’s Twitter deal.
• Microsoft earnings beat across the board, stock up on outlook.
• YouTube’s huge miss shows digital media ad market is getting hit hard.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Alphabet, Robinhood & more.
• Chipotle earnings beat estimates as customers paid more, helping offset surging costs.
• Biden blocks sales of inefficient lightbulbs, reversing Trump-era policy.

MarketWatch:          

• These 21 large-cap stocks have now plunged at least 50% as tech falls to fresh low.
  
• Lael Brainard confirmed to be Powell’s No. 2 at Fed.
  
• A median-priced new home in the U.S. is roughly $77,000 more expensive than it was a year ago.

Zero Hedge:

• Twitter's Top Lawyer Breaks Down In Tears During Musk Takeover Meeting.
• Poland Confirms Russia To Halt All Gas Delivery Wednesday If Payment Not Settled In Rubles.
• Biden Senior Adviser Called 'Squad' Members 'F**king Idiots' According To NYT Reporters.
• Some Vaccine-Injured Getting Better While Others See Little Improvement.
• A Lone Bank Doubles Down On Its Doomsday Call, Says Recession "Will Be Worse Than Expected".
• Bolsonaro Asks WTO Not To Sever Russian Trade As 27 Fertilizer Ships Inbound.
• Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open - US stocks declined and Alphabet missed on earnings.
• Broken markets...
• Big Tech Censored Biden Criticism 646 Times Over 2 Years: Report.
• WTI Slides Lower After Surprise Crude Build.
• Newsquawk US Market Wrap: Stocks plunge deeper on global growth woes while Nasdaq 100 sees biggest decline since Feb 3rd.
• "Meltdown": Bank Of America Sounding The Alarm On Collapsing Freight Demand.
• Robinhood To Fire 9% Of Full-Time Employees.
• Alphabet Plummets 7% After Missing On Earnings, YouTube Revenues, Despite New $70BN Stock Buyback. 
• Elon Musk 'Clarifies' Free Speech Stance After EU Threats.
• Pukefest!

Newsmax:  

• Fiona Hill on Putin Using Nuclear Weapons: 'Of Course He Would'.
• Ukraine Accuses Russia of Blackmail With Plan to Halt Gas to Poland.
• US, Allies Vow Heavy Arms for Ukraine, Shrug Off Russian Nuke Warning.
• Reports of Russian Concentration Camps, Demands for Money.
• Biden Admin. Pushed Germany to Delay Russian Oil Ban Until After Midterms.

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• BREAKING: Project Veritas Releases Leaked Audio of Twitter Meeting Following Elon Musk’s Purchase.
• Schumer Says the “Only Way” to Reduce Inflation Caused by Biden and Democrats is to Raise Taxes on Americans (VIDEO).
• Family Launches Billboard Campaign – Claims Pfizer Drugs and Wisconsin Hospital Killed Their Daughter Grace.
• Double Vaccinated ESPN’s Kirk Herbstreit to Miss 2022 NFL Draft Due to Blood Clot (VIDEO).
• Joe Biden Paid For Hunter Biden’s Legal Bills For a Deal with Communist China.
• Despite Record Pain at the Pump — Joe Biden Blocks Oil Drilling on Millions of Acres of US Land.
• Biden Incurred $5.2 Million in Unexplained Income Hidden in Financial Records.
• JUST IN: Fully Vaxxed and *Double Boosted* Kamala Harris Tests Positive For Covid-19, Goes Into Isolation.
• “They Attack People Viciously and Personally Why, Because the Left Can’t Win on the Facts. Their Agenda Is Insane” – Senate Candidate and Former Governor Eric Greitens.

The Epoch Times:

• Marxists Seek to Destabilize American Society Through Sexualization of Young People: Expert.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 807,241 Reports(+4,073 from prior week) Through April 15th, 2022.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.75% to -.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 121.0 +2.25 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS  81.5 +2.5 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.36 -.05%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,480.0 -44.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 30.0 -1.0%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.3%.

• S&P 500 futures +.05%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.20%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (AMT)/2.48
• (ADP)/2.08
• (BA)/-.22
• (BSX)/.39
• (BG)/2.94
• (CME)/2.00
• (DISCA)/.57
• (GD)/2.52
• (GPI)/9.43
• (HOG)/1.47
• (HES)/1.11
• (HUM)/6.78
• (KHC)/.53
• (MAS)/.85
• (NSC)/2.92
• (ODFL)/2.41
• (OSK)/.17
• (OC)/2.44
• (PAG)/3.64
• (RGEN)/.72
• (R)/2.38
• (STX)/1.88
• (STM)/.70
  

After the Close:

• (AFL)/1.37
• (ALGN)/2.23
• (AMGN)/4.16
• (AVB)/2.26
• (CHRW)/1.55
• (CP)/.71
• (CAKE)/.51
• (DFS)/3.61
• (F)/.38
• (FWRD)/1.36
• (HTZ)/.86
• (LVS)/-.24
• (FB)/2.51
• (OII)/-.01
• (ORLY)/7.41
• (PYPL)/.88
• (PPC)/.68
• (QCOM)/2.92
• (RJF)/1.64
• (NOW)/1.70
• (SAVE)/-1.58
• (URI)/4.87
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Advance Goods Trade Balance for March is estimated at -$105.0B versus -$106.3B in Feb.
• Wholesale Inventories MoM for March is estimated to rise +1.5% versus a +2.5% gain in Feb.
• Retail Inventories MoM for March is estimated to rise +1.4% versus a +1.1% gain in Feb.
  

10:00 am EST

• Pending Home Sales MoM for March is estimated to fall -1.0% versus a -4.1% decline in Feb.

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -225,000 barrels versus a -8,020,00 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +300,000 barrels versus a -761,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -985,710 barrels versus a -2,664,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise +.21% versus a +1.0% gain prior.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Australia Trade Balance report, 5Y T-Note auction and the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.