Stocks Higher into Afternoon on US Economic Soft-Landing Hopes, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Quarter-End Positioning, Tech/Gambling Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 19.3 -3.3%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .37%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 53.1 +3.8%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 150.0 +1.3%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.9 -.1%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 35.4 -.3% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 86.0 -49.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .92 -14.0%

• NYSE Arms .81 -1.2%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 81.0 -3.3%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 417.13 -2.9%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 473.0 +2
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 107.50 -6.4% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 478.2 -2.3%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 182.0 basis basis points -3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 140.5 -3.3%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 241.5 -3.2%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.57 +.24%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 33.25 basis points +.25 basis point
  

• TED Spread 48.25 basis points -.75 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -21.75 unch.
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  157.0 -4.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 666.0 +3.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 91.0 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.83 +.08%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.73% +9.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 123.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.08%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 42.8 euros/megawatt-hour +.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 60.8 -.5 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 60.0 -.9 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 22.5 -1.0 point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 226.29 +.03:  Growth Rate +1.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 17.6 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.33% unch.
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.41 +11.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.15 +4.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -50.75 basis points (2s/10s) -1.5 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +3.19% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.73% unch.: CPI YoY +5.22% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.33 +2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for June 14th FOMC meeting: 60.3%(+8.4 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%. Highest target rate probability for July 26th meeting: 45.8%(+2.2 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -88 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +49 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +149 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my tech/medical/industrial/utility sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long