Stocks Finish Slightly Higher on Loosening US Financial Conditions, Dollar Weakness, Technical Buying, Tech/Utility Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 18.7 +1.2%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .56%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 66.8 -.1%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 151.09 +.42%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.5 -.1%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 34.4 +1.3% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 96.0 +6.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .97 +7.8%

• NYSE Arms 1.16 +58.9%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 70.5 -1.44%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 330.3 -.95%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 319.0 -4
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 82.9 -3.2% 
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 402.8 +2.5%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 183.0 basis basis points +1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 110.25 -1.25%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 226.05 -.19%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 27.5 +.7%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 32.0 basis points -1.5 basis points
  

• TED Spread 14.25 basis points -.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -8.75 -1.5 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  149.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 529.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 56.0 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.8 +.16%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.85% +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 124.3 USD/Metric Tonne unch.
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 42.1 euros/megawatt-hour -6.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 34.9 -4.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 56.6 -7.8 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 12.0 +2.6 points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 224.87 -.43:  Growth Rate +.9% -.2 percentage point, P/E 18.1 +.4
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.35% +2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .30 +2.0 basis points
  
• Yield Curve -90.75 basis points (2s/10s) -.25 basis point
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.27% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.72% unch.: CPI YoY +6.21% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.49 -3.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for May 3rd FOMC meeting: 61.6%(-3.0 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for June 14th meeting: 56.1%(-.4 percentage point) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 84 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.8%(-0.0 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) -0/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -83.3%(+.1 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -227 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -20 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -5 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long