Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:                     

• China’s Modest GDP Growth Target Reduces Need for More Stimulus.  
• China Markets Set for Weak Showing as Growth Target Disappoints.
• China Aims to Boost Grain Capacity Under New Food Security Push.  
• Missing Banker Reignites Fear of Xi Among China's Tech Bosses.
  
• Top Japan Cosmetics Analyst Says Street Is Too Bullish on China.
• South Korea Inflation Slows, Easing Pressure on Central Bank.
• Europe’s Surging Inflation Bets Undercut Lagarde’s Rate Campaign.
  
• World’s Riskiest Markets Stumble Into Crisis With Dollars Scarce.
• Ukraine Latest: US Evaluates Kyiv Pilots; Estonian Election Test.
•   Dollar Edges Higher as Traders Weigh China Outlook: Markets Wrap.
• Saudi Arabia Raises Oil Prices for Asia and Europe for April.  
• Forget Peak Oil Demand: A Thirst for Barrels Puts $100 in View. 
•   Five Key Charts to Watch in Global Commodity Markets This Week.
• Powell Set to Lay Groundwork for Higher Rates on Capitol Hill.
  
• US Jobs Report and Powell Testimony Take Center Stage. 
• Plan to Target ‘Unregulated’ Expansion in Property Market.
• Stock Market’s Fate Comes Down to the Next 13 Trading Sessions.
• NYC Mayor Adams Says Chicago Election Is ‘Warning Sign’ on Crime.
• Weather Warnings Brought Forward as Arctic Air Arrives Early.  
• Apple Supplier Foxconn’s Sales Decline Despite China Reopening.  
• Commodity Traders Saw $100 Billion Year as Market Boomed, Says Report.  
• ESG Funds Hit by ‘Staggering’ Inflows Head for Issuance Freeze.   
• Harris Associates Sells Entire Credit Suisse Stake, FT Reports.

Wall Street Journal:

• Companies Disclose CEOs’ Actual Pay for First Time.
• Wall Street Concedes There Is Finally an Alternative to Stocks.
• China Sets Lowest Economic Growth Target in Decades.
• Bars, Hotels and Restaurants Become the Economy’s Fastest-Growing Employers.
• Russia’s Troops Wear Out Ukrainian Forces in Bakhmut.
• Why Elite Law and Medical Schools Can’t Stand U.S. News. Our rankings provide students vital, accurate data. Administrators don’t like to be held accountable.
• Pentagon Sees Giant Cargo Cranes as Possible Chinese Spying Tools.
• Facial Recognition: The Creepy Convenience.
• EVs Boost Chip Demand Despite Semiconductor Makers’ Woes.
• Texts From Crypto Giant Binance Reveal Plan to Elude U.S. Authorities.
• Effort to Ban Stock Trading Among Executive Branch Officials Renewed.

Fox News:

• We are living through the largest, deadliest scandal in American history.
• Top Democrat sounds the alarm on conservative counties pushing to leave liberal state.
• '60 Minutes' tries turning back the clock after declaring lab leak theory 'debunked'. 
• DeSantis rips Dem governor in his own backyard, says state ‘hemorrhaging population’.

CNBC:

• One of the biggest autonomous vehicle experiments is deep underwater.
• China to increase defense spending by 7.2%. 
• Senators to launch bill that will help ban or prohibit foreign tech like TikTok.

Zero Hedge:    

• Fauci 'Prompted' Scientists To Fabricate 'Proximal Origins' Paper Ruling Out Lab-Leak: House GOP.
• Communities Block, Ban Dollar Stores Amid Nationwide Invasion.
• Flynn Sues DOJ, FBI For Malicious Prosecution, Wants $50 Million.
• Hedge Fund CIO: "Are Inverted Yield Curves Really Saying What We Think They're Saying".
• Weekend News Round Up - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• TME Weekend.
• Thank Goodness For Friday.
• Goldman: The Big Near-Term Risk Here Is If The Fed Opens Up 50s.
• Doctors, Scientists Call On Mississippi Officials To Take COVID Vaccines Off The Market. 
• China People's Congress Reveals Conservative GDP Target Of Just 5% For 2023.
• Employers Frequently Overlook Resumes Which Include "They/Them" Pronouns.
• Washington Post: Yes, The Biden Loan Forgiveness May Be Unconstitutional But...
• Biden's Executive Order Nightmare: Government Will Track Every Dime You Spend.
• Matt King Explains Why Stocks Refuse To Go Down In Two Minutes.
• Employers Frequently Overlook Resumes Which Include "They/Them" Pronouns.
• Growing Number Of Dems, Republicans Split Over Military Aid To Ukraine.
• Why so resilient?
• Top Food Brands Virtue Signal 'Healthy Diets' While Cashing In On Junk Food.
• San Francisco 'Opens The Door' To Supervised Drug Consumption Sites.
• The Global Internet Kill Switch.
• The Attack Of The Subversive Elites.
• These Are The Most (And Least) Expensive Cities To Live In.
• Trump Promises "Quantum Leap" For A New America.
• WHO Urges Countries To Reveal Intel On COVID Origins After FBI Director's Statements.
• Snowed-In And Terrified: Trapped California Mountain Residents Plea For Help.
• Residents Told To Shelter In Place After Norfolk Southern Freight Train Derails In Ohio.
• Another FBI Whistleblower Says He Was Forced To Inflate Domestic Terrorism Numbers.

MarketWatch.com: 

• Stock market faces crucial test this week: 3 questions that could decide rally’s fate.
• ‘Love him or hate him’: New ETFs let investors bet on or against Jim Cramer and his stock picks.
  
• Apple’s stock has 5 overlooked catalysts that will drive it higher, analyst says.

NewsMax:

• Trump to Newsmax: Dems Have Weaponized Justice in the US.  
• China's Silence Thwarts Effort to Discern COVID Origin.

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• J6 Political Prisoners at DC Gulag Leak Heart-Breaking Video from Inside Jail Praying and Singing National Anthem – VIDEO. 
• In 2022 New Zealand Recorded Its Largest Increase in Deaths in a Century.
• Democrat Biden Challenger Marianne Williamson Says the DNC Is “Rigging” The System for Biden.
• Business Leader Kevin O’Leary: Blue States Are Becoming ‘Uninvestable’ (VIDEO).
• Thousands of Belgian Farmers Join Protest Against Globalist Reset Plans.
• Parents Defend Transitioning Child – Say They Knew Their Child Was Trans “Before She(He) Could Ever Speak” (VIDEO).
• The UK Lockdown Files: Text Messages Reveal How Top British Health Officials Conspired to “Scare the Pants Off Everyone” and Asking “When Do We Deploy the New Variant?”.
• FOX News Hides the Real CPAC Straw Poll Results – Shows Nikki Haley in 3rd When She Was 4th to Businessman Perry Johnson.
• Democrats Turn on ‘Joke Candidate’ Marianne Williamson for Launching 2024 Primary Challenge to Joe Biden – But Bumbling Joe Biden Is Not a Joke?
• Why Is Late-Night Bully Jimmy Kimmel Mocking Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers For Mentioning Upcoming Release of Jeffrey Epstein Client List? [VIDEO].
• Spate of Whale Strandings Near Offshore Wind Projects Becoming Impossible to Ignore – But Feds Still Deny Link.
• DEVELOPING: Residents Told to Shelter in Place After Train Derailment in Springfield, Ohio (VIDEO).

The Epoch Times:

• China Outpaces US in Military Ship Buildup: Former Intelligence Officer.

Twitter:

• @kylenabecker - Biden Executive Order Paves the Way for ‘Woke’ Artificial Intelligence.
• @texasrunnerDFW - Why are young people still throwing money at 0DTE, vacations, crypto, STRs, quitting jobs, taking huge car loans? If any generation calls the Federal Reserve’s bluff, it will be Millennials or Gen Z Many of us have nothing but debt And that means we have nothing to lose.
• @TPostMillenial - BREAKING: Far-left extremists TORCH future cop training center in Atlanta, direct action was announced on Twitter.
• @Mayhem4Markets - Hedgie net leverage is rather low. (graph)
• @GameofTrades_ - The stage is set for delinquencies to rise. Bank tightening is a good leading indicator for loan defaults. Tighter standards = defaults. (graph)
• @JamesMelville - Sweden had the lowest overall cumulative excess deaths in countries analysed by the OECD during the pandemic era from March 2020 to June 2022. Even lower than Finland, Norway and Denmark.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 938,175 Reports(+1,692 from prior week) Through February 17th, 2023.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are unch. to +1.0% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 110.0 -2.5 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 64.75 -2.75 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 122.0 USD/Metric Tonne -2.7%
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.7 +.07%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 67.2 +.53%.
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .25 -4.0 basis points. 
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.7 +.02%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.26%.
• S&P 500 futures -.03%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.04%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.