Stocks Surging into Afternoon on Lower Long-Term Rates, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Short-Covering, Alt Energy/Tech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 18.8 -4.1%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .91%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 66.8 +1.9%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 150.60 -.24%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.5 -.4%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 34.9 -1.0% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 104.0 +18.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .86 -19.6%

• NYSE Arms .86 +16.2%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 71.5 -4.6%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 335.8 -3.3%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 323.0 -6
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 85.66 -3.97% 
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 392.9 -1.0%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 182.0 basis basis points -5.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 112.2 -1.3%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 227.8 -4.3%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 27.3 +.05%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 33.5 basis points unch.
  

• TED Spread 14.75 basis points +1.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -7.25 -.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  148.0 -7.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 527.0 -5.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 55.0 -2.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.6 +.14%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.84% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 125.9 USD/Metric Tonne +.4%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 45.0 euros/megawatt-hour -3.9%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 38.9 +.8 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 64.4 -6.4 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 9.4 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 225.3 +1.30:  Growth Rate +1.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 17.7 +.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.33% -1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .28 unch.
  
• Yield Curve -90.5 basis points (2s/10s) -6.0 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.27% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.72% unch.: CPI YoY +6.21% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.52 +4.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for May 3rd FOMC meeting: 64.0%(-.7 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for June 14th meeting: 56.3%(-.5 percentage point) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 84 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.8%(-0.0 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) -0/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -83.3%(+.1 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +237 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +52 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +45 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my medical/commodity/industrial/tech sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long