Stocks Higher into Afternoon on US Economic Soft-Landing Hopes, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, End-of-Quarter Positioning, Alt Energy/Gambling Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 18.8 -1.4%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .82%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 54.1 -1.2%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 150.5 -.3%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.0 -.08%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 34.3 +.3% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 84.0 -30.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .98 +4.3%

• NYSE Arms 1.30 +4.0%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 75.9 -2.8%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 383.1 -4.0%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 455.0 -3
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 98.9 -4.0% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 424.68 +16.0%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 181.0 basis basis points -5.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 130.9 -2.4%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 229.48 -2.2%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.85 +.60%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 33.25 basis points -.75 basis point
  

• TED Spread 43.75 basis points +4.0 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -18.25 +1.5 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  152.0 -3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 673.0 +3.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 92.0 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.9 -.06%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.66% -8.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 123.80 USD/Metric Tonne -1.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 47.8 euros/megawatt-hour +9.8%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 57.0 -2.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 50.0 -4.2 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 26.5 +4.7 points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 225.98 -.13:  Growth Rate +1.7% , P/E 18.1 +.2
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.30% -1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.42 -12.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.03 +2.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -58.25 basis points (2s/10s) -3.0 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.49% -70.0 basis points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.60% -13.0 basis points: CPI YoY +5.22% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 unch.
  
• Highest target rate probability for June 14th FOMC meeting: 50.0%(+5.5 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 26th meeting: 49.9%(+1.3 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +209 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +5 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +153 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/medical/industrial sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long