Stocks Higher into Final Hour on US Economic Soft-Landing Hopes, US Regional Bank Bounce, Technical Buying, Financial/Tech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume:  Heavy

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 24.1 -9.2%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .79%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 49.9 +7.1%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 150.2 +.9%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.7 -1.1%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 40.4 -4.6% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 82.0 -21.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.04 unch.

• NYSE Arms 1.17 +14.7%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 86.6 -3.5%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 401.29 -7.0%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 370.0 +21
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 106.5 -3.2% 
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 530.5 +2.5%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 185.0 basis basis points -7.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 139.8 +7.8%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 255.5 -.52%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.9 -.26%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 24.25 basis points +2.25 basis points
  

• TED Spread 12.75 basis points -22.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -24.25 +17.75 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  163.0 +4.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 613.0 +7.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 60.0 +2.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.55 +.09%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.75% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 132.7 USD/Metric Tonne +.74%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 44.2 euros/megawatt-hour -10.9%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 50.3 +2.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 51.6 -3.0 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 18.4 +1.3 points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 225.37 +.04:  Growth Rate +1.1% unch., P/E 17.4+.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.38% unch.
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.65 +61.0 basis points
  
• Yield Curve -60.5 basis points (2s/10s) -7.25 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.63% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.73% +1.0 basis point: CPI YoY +5.22% -99.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.31 +7.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for May 3rd FOMC meeting: 47.8%(+15.5 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for June 14th meeting: 44.8%(+12.2 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -52 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +76 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +37 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my tech/medical/industrial sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure: 25% Net Long