Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on US Economic "Soft-Landing" Hopes, FANG+ Stock Optimism, Technical Buying, Tech/Homebuilding Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.1 -.4%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .59%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 55.0 +1.2%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 155.5 -.02%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.74 -.71%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 33.6 -3.2% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 105.0 +12.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .95 +2.2%

• NYSE Arms .60 +3.5%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 81.4 +.11%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 409.7 -.13%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 415.0 -13.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 102.98 +.18% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 377.5 -.16%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 192.0 basis points +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 132.58 -1.9%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 250.25 +.96%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.5 -.41%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 24.5 basis points -1.5 basis points
  

• TED Spread 13.5 basis points +7.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.5 +.75 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 166.0 -4.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 710.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 94.0 -1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.9 -.03%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.21% -3.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 104.6 USD/Metric Tonne -.8%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 36.9 euros/megawatt-hour +.8%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 18.6 -1.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -20.3 -5.7 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 38.0 +1.1 points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 227.97 +.25:  Growth Rate +2.4% +.1 percentage point, P/E 18.1 +.3
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.25% -1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .06 +5.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.55 -4.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -50.0 basis points (2s/10s) -2.5 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +2.75% +9.0 basis points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.66% unch.: CPI YoY +5.19% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.24 +3.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for July 26th FOMC meeting: 58.5%(-.1 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 20th meeting: 47.0%(-4.4 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +99 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -12 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +73 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my tech/medical sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long