Stocks Surging into Afternoon on US Economic "Soft-Landing" Hopes, Diminished Regional Bank Contagion Fears, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Financial/Commodity Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.4 -13.6%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.08%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 54.2 +8.2%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 155.5 +.43%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.81 +.31%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 34.7 -9.3% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 99.0 +11.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .92 +4.6%

• NYSE Arms .68 -25.3%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 81.05 -2.2%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 413.20 -3.9%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 428.0 +15.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 102.79 -3.9% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 378.08 -1.9%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 190.0 basis points -3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 135.3 -.13%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 247.87 -1.6%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.63 -.15%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 26.0 basis points +.25 basis point
  

• TED Spread 6.25 basis points -.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -23.25 +1.75 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 170.0 +6.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 709.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 95.0 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.0 +.31%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.24% +3.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 99.54 USD/Metric Tonne +.7%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 36.6 euros/megawatt-hour +2.6%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 19.7 +3.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -14.6 -19.9 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 36.9 +.3 point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 227.72 +.22:  Growth Rate +2.3% +.3 percentage point, P/E 17.8 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.26% unch.
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .06 +26.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.51 +19.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -47.5 basis points (2s/10s) -10.0 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +2.66% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.66% unch.: CPI YoY +5.19% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.21 +2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for July 26th FOMC meeting: 60.9%(+26.0 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 20th meeting: 51.0%(+12.5 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -83 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +25 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +79 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/utility/industrial/medical sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long