Stocks Closing Higher on Oil Pullback, Earnings Optimism, Short-Covering, Consumer Discretionary/Retail Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.4 -10.0%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .76% -36.9%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 70.7 +1.9%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 168.2 +.48%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.49 -.36%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 24.3 -9.9% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 108.0 -2.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .96 -9.4%

• NYSE Arms .49 -41.0%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 75.2 -1.6%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 357.29 -.04%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 364 +8
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 96.85 -1.39% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 298.62 -.77%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 198.0 basis points -6.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 126.9 +.88%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 233.49 -1.60%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 129.5 +4.7%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.78 -.14%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -12.0 basis points -.75 basis point
  

• TED Spread 18.0 basis points +.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -27.5 +.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 187.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 913.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 86.0 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.3 +.06%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.48% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 116.9 USD/Metric Tonne  -.26%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 48.5 euros/megawatt-hour -10.2%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 51.8 +.6 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -41.8 +.7 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 19.1 -.3 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(32 of 500 reporting) +12.3% -2.0 percentage points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 239.54 -.44:  Growth Rate +9.1% -.1 percentage point, P/E 18.3 +.2
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.25% +7.0 basis points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 267.28 +.18: Growth Rate +57.7% -.1 percentage point, P/E 28.7 +.2
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .13 +13.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -.26 -19.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -39.5 basis points (2s/10s) +3.5 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +5.15% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.70% unch.: CPI YoY +3.42% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.38 +3.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 13th FOMC meeting: 67.2%(-2.5 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 31st meeting: 64.4%(-5.2 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +311 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +44 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +116 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower:  On losses in my index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long