Stocks Lower into Afternoon on Mid-East Regional War Fears, Tightening US Financial Conditions, Earnings Outlook Worries, Financial/Tech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 20.7 -3.2%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .66% -52.7%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 67.0 -2.2%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 169.2 +.2%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.42 unch.

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 30.0 -4.3% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 95.0 unch.
  

• Total Put/Call 1.01 -6.5%

• NYSE Arms 1.04 +11.8%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 80.68 -.08%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 381.72 +1.8%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 351 -3
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 103.67 +3.6% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 308.94 +.66%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 204.0 basis points +3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 136.3 +1.5%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 243.3 -.9%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 137.02 +6.4%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.7 unch.

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -12.25 basis points -.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 21.5 basis points +5.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -25.75 +.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 187.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 905.0 -4.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 87.0 +2.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.2 +.1%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.46% -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 113.3 USD/Metric Tonne -3.5%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 51.1 euros/megawatt-hour +1.9%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 52.9 -1.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -32.4 +2.3 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 23.0 -.9
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(86 of 500 reporting) +2.2% +.3 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 240.28 -.07:  Growth Rate +9.3% unch., P/E 17.7 -.3
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.11% -1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(2 of 10 reporting) -20.9%
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 267.31 -.35: Growth Rate +57.7% -.2 percentage point, P/E 27.5 -.8
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.21 -6.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -.26 +67.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -16.75 basis points (2s/10s) +1.5 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +5.41% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.70% unch.: CPI YoY +3.36% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.47 -3.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 13th FOMC meeting: 73.1%(+3.2 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 31st meeting: 65.9%(+4.6 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -34 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -89 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +111 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my transport sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: Market Neutral