Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Earnings Outlook Optimism, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Short-Covering, Tech/Utility Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 19.6 -3.8%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .75% -13.2%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 63.8 -3.0%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 169.2 -.64%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.36 -1.18%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 29.99 -.2% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 111.0 +9.0
  

• Total Put/Call .89 -2.2%

• NYSE Arms 1.10 -.90%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 77.91 -2.1%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 370.4 -2.6%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 330 -10
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 98.64 -1.26% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 302.8 -2.1%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 199.0 basis points +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 134.4 -2.5%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 236.2 -1.6%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 141.75 -2.2%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.74 +.34%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -13.5 basis points -.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 20.25 basis points +1.0 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -25.5 +1.5 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 186.0 -4.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 930.0 +22.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 92.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.24 unch.
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.44% -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 117.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.7%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 49.26 euros/megawatt-hour -3.9%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 49.0 +.3 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -43.9 -15.0 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 23.0 +.3
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(118 of 500 reporting) +1.9% -.3 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 240.26 -.02:  Growth Rate +9.3% unch., P/E 17.7 +.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.12% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(2 of 10 reporting) -20.9% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 268.15 +.26: Growth Rate +58.2% +.2 percentage point, P/E 27.9 +.2
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.20 +6.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -.16 +6.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -26.0 basis points (2s/10s) -3.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +5.41% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.70% unch.: CPI YoY +3.32% -4.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.40 unch.
  
• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 13th FOMC meeting: 75.0%(+.2 percentage point) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 31st meeting: 65.7%(+1.6 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +168 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +189 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +88 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my utility/tech/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long