Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Lower Long-Term Rates, Falling Oil, Short-Covering, Gambling/Homebuilding Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 19.7 -9.5%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .86% -7.1%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 66.2 +.7%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 170.3 +.64%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.44 +.24%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 26.6 -8.7% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 106.0 +22.0
  

• Total Put/Call .86 -19.6%

• NYSE Arms .91 -35.0%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 79.1 -2.7%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 378.39 -1.4%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 340 -11
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 99.89 -3.6% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 309.38 +.14%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 197.0 basis points -7.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 137.9 +1.5%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 238.23 -2.6%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 144.97 +5.8%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.6 -.1%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -13.0 basis points -.75 basis point
  

• TED Spread 21.25 basis points -.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -27.0 -1.25 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 190.0 +3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 908.0 +3.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 92.0 +5.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.2 +.09%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.45% -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 112.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.68%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 51.28 euros/megawatt-hour +.32%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 48.7 -4.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -28.9 +3.5 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 22.7 -.3
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(86 of 500 reporting) +2.2% unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 240.28 unch.:  Growth Rate +9.3% unch., P/E 17.6 -.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.12% +1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(2 of 10 reporting) -20.9% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 267.89 +.58: Growth Rate +58.0% +.3 percentage point, P/E 27.7 +.2
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.20 +6.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -.28 -2.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -23.0 basis points (2s/10s) -6.25 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +5.41% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.70% unch.: CPI YoY +3.36% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.40 -7.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 13th FOMC meeting: 74.6%(-5.5 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 31st meeting: 64.0%(-7.8 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -4 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +4 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +52 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower:  On losses in my commodity sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long