Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.7 +.17%
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.29% -2.0 basis points
- China Iron Ore Spot 98.8 USD/Metric Tonne +.6%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 49.6 euros/megawatt-hour -1.3%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 5.7 +3.5 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -12.4 +.2 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -1.5 unch.
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(19 of 500 reporting) +21.2% unch.
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 272.29 +.13: Growth Rate +14.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.8 +.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.57% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 393.38 +.11: Growth Rate +25.5% +.1 percentage point, P/E 33.9 +.2
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .66 -2.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.39 -97.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 31.5 basis points (2s/10s) -1.0 basis point
- US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +2.45% -14.0 basis points
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 24.9% -.9 percentage point
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.87% unch.: CPI YoY +2.86% unch.
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.35 unch.
- Highest target rate probability for March 19th FOMC meeting: 51.5% (+2.1 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for May 7th meeting: 45.2%(-1.0 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -198 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -9 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +138 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my tech/utility/financial/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long