Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Mideast War Resolution Hopes, AI Infrastructure Build-Out Optimism, Positive Earnings Outlooks, Tech/Energy Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 59.2 -.3%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 69.4 -.01% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .35 +2.0 basis points
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .03 -5.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 66.30 -2.3% 
• Emerging Market CDS Index 160.4 -.1% 
• Israel Sovereign CDS 57.2 +1.2% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .7 unch.
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 86.9 -1.2

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 74.0 +.4

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -2.6 -.1

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 36.2 -1.3
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(451 of 500 reporting) +27.1% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 416.47 +.06:  Growth Rate +27.0% unch., P/E 18.3 +.3
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.32% -2.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +34.9% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 1,107.26 +.59: Growth Rate +64.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 16.0 +.5
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .90 +9.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 25.0 basis points (2s/10s) -.5 basis point
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 171.5 +1.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 87.0 euros/megawatt-hour +2.7%
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 14.1% unch.
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 Forecast +3.5% unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.99% n/a
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 1.99 n/a

• Highest target rate probability for Jan. 27th FOMC meeting: 60.7% (+.6 percentage point) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for March 17th meeting: 43.9%(+3.5 percentage points) chance of 4.5%-4.75%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +930 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -37 open in China
• KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating +20 open in South Korea 

• DAX Futures: Indicating +182 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/biotech/energy sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long