Earnings Announcements
Company/Estimate
LSCC/-.01
MERX/.09
MU/-.07
PERY/1.11
Splits
ASFI 2-for-1
COCO 2-for-1
Economic Data
Durable Goods Orders for February estimated up 1.5% vs. -2.3% prior month.
Durable Goods Less Transportation for February estimated up 1.0% vs. 1.2% prior month.
New Home Sales estimated at 1100K for February vs. 1106K prior month.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Underperform on RKY. TheStreet.com is saying OVTI is about to have a lot of large competition. TSC also says that this still looks a pullback in a primary uptrend.
Late-Night News
Asian stocks are mostly higher on an upgrade of Japan's debt rating and several major stock buyback announcements by leading Taiwanese companies. Richard Branson's Virgin USA low-cost carrier plans to purchase as many as 55 planes and may partner with US Airways as it seeks to take advantage of demand for low cost flights in the U.S. OPEC will discuss a proposal to delay production cuts at a meeting next week, OPEC news agency said. Taiwan Semi announced a 300 million share buyback on its 13% decline since the disputed election. Nokia(NOK) may tell shareholders at an annual general meeting Thursday that demand for handsets is rising, leading to better-than-expected 1Q earnings. Japan's debt outlook was raised by S&P, the first of the rating companies to become more optimistic after 3 years of downgrades.
Late-Night Trading
Asian Indices -.25% to +.75%.
S&P 500 indicated -.05%.
NASDAQ indicated +.11%.
BOTTOM LINE: I expect the U.S. markets to remain weak to flat tomorrow on continuing worries over geopolitical matters, technical deterioration and high commodity prices. The Portfolio is 25% net long and I will look to add market exposure on any signs of a significant countertrend rally.
Wednesday, March 24, 2004
Tuesday, March 23, 2004
Tuesday Close
S&P 500 1,093.95 -.13%
NASDAQ 1,901.80 -.42%
Leading Sectors
Iron/Steel +.80%
HMO's +.78%
Airlines +.72%
Lagging Sectors
Telecom -1.02%
Disk Drives -1.03%
Oil Service -1.40%
Other
Crude Oil 37.51 +.16%
Natural Gas 5.53 unch.
Gold 419.90 -.02%
Base Metals 110.87 -1.28%
U.S. Dollar 87.85 +.07%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 3.69% -.61%
VIX 20.67 -4.22%
Put/Call .67 -30.21%
NYSE Arms 1.22 -63.58%
After-hours Movers
RHAT +9.12% after largest developer of Linux software met 4Q estimates and raised 1Q guidance.
NOVL +5.71% as number 2 developer of Linux software benefited from strong RHAT report.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on AMGN. GS reiterates its view that steel stocks will continue to see earnings driven outperformance. TheStreet.com has a negative column on AWE, saying it is losing subscribers. TheStreet.com has a positive column on gaming stocks, saying estimates are rising as the stocks correct.
After-hours News
U.S. stocks ended slightly lower Tuesday on another disappointing session for the bulls. Equities were higher until the final 30 minutes, dropping on reports that Israeli gunboats opened fired off the shoreline of Gaza City. After the close, Tyson Foods said it won't have to pay $1.28B in damages to thousands of ranchers, according to a ruling by a U.S. judge. Morgan Stanley led companies that sold $7.5B of new notes and bonds today, more than double the daily average this year, as frequent borrowers such as finance companies took advantage of low borrowing costs. Israeli planes hit a squad preparing to fire rockets from Lebanon into Israel, military officials reported.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio was up slightly on the day, as I took profits in a few winning longs and added a new overbought short, bringing market exposure back down to 25% net long. I shorted ANF in the afternoon and will use a tight stop-loss of $33 as the market is very oversold short-term. The action in the final 30 minutes was disheartening for the bulls, as the days gains completely evaporated on some inconsequential news items. I expect a bit more weakness before a real countertrend rally begins on quarter-end mark-ups. Furthermore, I expect weakness to resurface in early April. However, the beginning of earnings season later in the month should provide the catalyst for a resumption of the bull market that began last year.
NASDAQ 1,901.80 -.42%
Leading Sectors
Iron/Steel +.80%
HMO's +.78%
Airlines +.72%
Lagging Sectors
Telecom -1.02%
Disk Drives -1.03%
Oil Service -1.40%
Other
Crude Oil 37.51 +.16%
Natural Gas 5.53 unch.
Gold 419.90 -.02%
Base Metals 110.87 -1.28%
U.S. Dollar 87.85 +.07%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 3.69% -.61%
VIX 20.67 -4.22%
Put/Call .67 -30.21%
NYSE Arms 1.22 -63.58%
After-hours Movers
RHAT +9.12% after largest developer of Linux software met 4Q estimates and raised 1Q guidance.
NOVL +5.71% as number 2 developer of Linux software benefited from strong RHAT report.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on AMGN. GS reiterates its view that steel stocks will continue to see earnings driven outperformance. TheStreet.com has a negative column on AWE, saying it is losing subscribers. TheStreet.com has a positive column on gaming stocks, saying estimates are rising as the stocks correct.
After-hours News
U.S. stocks ended slightly lower Tuesday on another disappointing session for the bulls. Equities were higher until the final 30 minutes, dropping on reports that Israeli gunboats opened fired off the shoreline of Gaza City. After the close, Tyson Foods said it won't have to pay $1.28B in damages to thousands of ranchers, according to a ruling by a U.S. judge. Morgan Stanley led companies that sold $7.5B of new notes and bonds today, more than double the daily average this year, as frequent borrowers such as finance companies took advantage of low borrowing costs. Israeli planes hit a squad preparing to fire rockets from Lebanon into Israel, military officials reported.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio was up slightly on the day, as I took profits in a few winning longs and added a new overbought short, bringing market exposure back down to 25% net long. I shorted ANF in the afternoon and will use a tight stop-loss of $33 as the market is very oversold short-term. The action in the final 30 minutes was disheartening for the bulls, as the days gains completely evaporated on some inconsequential news items. I expect a bit more weakness before a real countertrend rally begins on quarter-end mark-ups. Furthermore, I expect weakness to resurface in early April. However, the beginning of earnings season later in the month should provide the catalyst for a resumption of the bull market that began last year.
Mid-day Update
S&P 500 1,098.41 +.27%
NASDAQ 1,912.83 +.15%
Leading Sectors
Iron/Steel +1.29%
Airlines +1.0%
Papers +.50%
Lagging Sectors
Biotech -1.10%
Telecom -1.50%
Oil Service -1.64%
Other
Crude Oil 37.35 +.81%
Natural Gas 5.49 -1.01%
Gold 420.20 +.67%
Base Metals 110.87 -1.28%
U.S. Dollar 87.71 -.11%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 3.71% -.05%
VIX 21.02 -2.60%
Put/Call .68 -29.17%
NYSE Arms 1.29 -61.49%
Market Movers
PLMO +27.6% after significantly beating 3Q estimates and raising 4Q guidance.
ELN +7.7% after saying it will ask European regulators to approve its Antegren multiple sclerosis treatment this year.
SBNY +24.5% on strong demand for IPO.
SKIL +12.2% after better-than-expected 4Q estimates.
AKAM -9.2% after announcing COO will leave company.
Economic Data
None of note.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs says that key takeaways from CTIA wireless show are 1)2G infrastructure market likely stronger than expected in 04 2)3G ramp continues to look steady in 04 3)3G ramp continues steady in 04. Overall, vendor sentiment remains in-line with recent positive demand comments, favorite is ERICY. GS reiterated Outperform on ACS, PETC and ATYT. GS says EU fine of $610M on MSFT is equivalent to 2 weeks of its cash flow, reiterated Outperform. GS positive on CSCO and NT ahead of their Voice on the Net conference next week. Citi Smith Barney raised RA to Buy 1M. Citi reiterated Buy on CCL, $53 target. Citi says NT oversold and is negotiating with FLEX to divest almost all it remaining optical, wireless and enterprise manufacturing operations. PFGC raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley, target $41. PFE raised to Buy at Oppenheimer, target $39. SWY cut to Underweight at Lehman. TheStreet.com is positive on BRL.
Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are moving higher mid-day on a bounce from oversold levels and positive earnings news from Goldman Sachs. Jones Apparel Group began a hostile tender offer of about $297M for Maxwell Shoe, Bloomberg reported. The euro fell against the dollar after a European Central Bank report showed investors withdrew more than twice as much money from the euro region in January than in December. Advanced Micro(AMD) expects demand to rise in the second half of the year as companies buy new computers to replace those purchased in 1999. U.S. companies that have resisted making stock options an expense will have to do so starting next year under a rule the Financial Accounting Standards Board will issue this month.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is up slightly on the day as a few of my tech longs are up and my oil service shorts are down. I added a few new longs this morning on weakness in select securities. The Portfolio is now 50% net long. I will closely monitor the late-afternoon action for any signs that a significant bounce has begun as the major U.S. indices are oversold short-term.
NASDAQ 1,912.83 +.15%
Leading Sectors
Iron/Steel +1.29%
Airlines +1.0%
Papers +.50%
Lagging Sectors
Biotech -1.10%
Telecom -1.50%
Oil Service -1.64%
Other
Crude Oil 37.35 +.81%
Natural Gas 5.49 -1.01%
Gold 420.20 +.67%
Base Metals 110.87 -1.28%
U.S. Dollar 87.71 -.11%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 3.71% -.05%
VIX 21.02 -2.60%
Put/Call .68 -29.17%
NYSE Arms 1.29 -61.49%
Market Movers
PLMO +27.6% after significantly beating 3Q estimates and raising 4Q guidance.
ELN +7.7% after saying it will ask European regulators to approve its Antegren multiple sclerosis treatment this year.
SBNY +24.5% on strong demand for IPO.
SKIL +12.2% after better-than-expected 4Q estimates.
AKAM -9.2% after announcing COO will leave company.
Economic Data
None of note.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs says that key takeaways from CTIA wireless show are 1)2G infrastructure market likely stronger than expected in 04 2)3G ramp continues to look steady in 04 3)3G ramp continues steady in 04. Overall, vendor sentiment remains in-line with recent positive demand comments, favorite is ERICY. GS reiterated Outperform on ACS, PETC and ATYT. GS says EU fine of $610M on MSFT is equivalent to 2 weeks of its cash flow, reiterated Outperform. GS positive on CSCO and NT ahead of their Voice on the Net conference next week. Citi Smith Barney raised RA to Buy 1M. Citi reiterated Buy on CCL, $53 target. Citi says NT oversold and is negotiating with FLEX to divest almost all it remaining optical, wireless and enterprise manufacturing operations. PFGC raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley, target $41. PFE raised to Buy at Oppenheimer, target $39. SWY cut to Underweight at Lehman. TheStreet.com is positive on BRL.
Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are moving higher mid-day on a bounce from oversold levels and positive earnings news from Goldman Sachs. Jones Apparel Group began a hostile tender offer of about $297M for Maxwell Shoe, Bloomberg reported. The euro fell against the dollar after a European Central Bank report showed investors withdrew more than twice as much money from the euro region in January than in December. Advanced Micro(AMD) expects demand to rise in the second half of the year as companies buy new computers to replace those purchased in 1999. U.S. companies that have resisted making stock options an expense will have to do so starting next year under a rule the Financial Accounting Standards Board will issue this month.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is up slightly on the day as a few of my tech longs are up and my oil service shorts are down. I added a few new longs this morning on weakness in select securities. The Portfolio is now 50% net long. I will closely monitor the late-afternoon action for any signs that a significant bounce has begun as the major U.S. indices are oversold short-term.
Tuesday Watch
Earnings Announcements
Company/Estimate
FDO/.46
GS/1.66
RHAT/.03
Splits
NIHD 3-for-1
Economic Data
None of note.
Recommendations
CBA raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley. Goldman Sachs reiterated Underperform on EDS. GS reiterated Outperform on YUM.
Late-Night News
Asian stocks are mixed as strength in Hong Kong, South Korea and India is overshadowed by another significant decline in Taiwan. A statement purportedly from the al-Qaeda terrorist network called for retaliation against the U.S. after Israeli forces killed Hamas leader Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, Agence France-Presse reported. Comcast will leave its bid to buy Disney on the table for no longer than three to six months, the New York Times reported. The U.S. is prepared to consider granting India the status of a non-NATO ally, New Delhi Television reported. General Motors is paying parts suppliers higher prices to cover rising steel costs, while at the same time suing two suppliers that threatened to stop deliveries, the WSJ reported. Anheuser-Busch is under pressure to spend more money on advertising its Bud Light brand because of growing competition from other beers, the WSJ reported. China protested a U.S. resolution prepared for a UN commission that criticizes the Chinese government for "backsliding" on human rights.
Late-Night Trading
Asian Indices -.50% to +1.0% on avg. with Taiwan's TWSE Index declining another 3.0%.
S&P 500 indicated +.27%.
NASDAQ indicated +.47%.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian stocks opened mostly lower and have rallied throughout the day. It is likely that U.S. stocks will attempt to rally in the morning off their oversold short-term condition. I will analyze the strength of the rally in the morning to decide whether or not to add some exposure on any weakness into the afternoon. However, if the indices open lower, I will likely add 25% long exposure in the morning. The Portfolio is 25% net long.
Company/Estimate
FDO/.46
GS/1.66
RHAT/.03
Splits
NIHD 3-for-1
Economic Data
None of note.
Recommendations
CBA raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley. Goldman Sachs reiterated Underperform on EDS. GS reiterated Outperform on YUM.
Late-Night News
Asian stocks are mixed as strength in Hong Kong, South Korea and India is overshadowed by another significant decline in Taiwan. A statement purportedly from the al-Qaeda terrorist network called for retaliation against the U.S. after Israeli forces killed Hamas leader Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, Agence France-Presse reported. Comcast will leave its bid to buy Disney on the table for no longer than three to six months, the New York Times reported. The U.S. is prepared to consider granting India the status of a non-NATO ally, New Delhi Television reported. General Motors is paying parts suppliers higher prices to cover rising steel costs, while at the same time suing two suppliers that threatened to stop deliveries, the WSJ reported. Anheuser-Busch is under pressure to spend more money on advertising its Bud Light brand because of growing competition from other beers, the WSJ reported. China protested a U.S. resolution prepared for a UN commission that criticizes the Chinese government for "backsliding" on human rights.
Late-Night Trading
Asian Indices -.50% to +1.0% on avg. with Taiwan's TWSE Index declining another 3.0%.
S&P 500 indicated +.27%.
NASDAQ indicated +.47%.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian stocks opened mostly lower and have rallied throughout the day. It is likely that U.S. stocks will attempt to rally in the morning off their oversold short-term condition. I will analyze the strength of the rally in the morning to decide whether or not to add some exposure on any weakness into the afternoon. However, if the indices open lower, I will likely add 25% long exposure in the morning. The Portfolio is 25% net long.
Monday, March 22, 2004
Monday Close
S&P 500 1,095.40 -1.30%
NASDAQ 1,909.90 -1.58%
Leading Sectors
Restaurants +.11%
Defense -.31%
Foods -.68%
Lagging Sectors
Papers -2.72%
Networking -3.20%
Airlines -3.21%
Other
Crude Oil 37.15 +.27%
Natural Gas 5.55 +.07%
Gold 417.20 -.10%
Base Metals 112.31 -.67%
U.S. Dollar 87.81 -.36%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 3.71% -1.55%
VIX 21.58 +12.69%
Put/Call .96 -5.88%
NYSE Arms 3.35 +65.02%
After-hours Movers
PLMO +11.3% after significantly beating 3Q estimates and raising 4Q guidance substantially.
PSRC +5.2% on PLMO earnings report.
SKIL +5.1% on better-than-expected 4Q earnings.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on AL, sees 31% upside from current levels. GS reiterated Outperform on CCL. Merrill Lynch raised Hong Kong to Overweight and cut Taiwan to Marketweight.
After-hours News
U.S. stocks fell again today as geopolitical concerns weighed heavily on airline and technology shares. Goldman Sachs says pension reform initiatives will have no major impact on equity and fixed income markets. Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse First Boston Private Equity are the frontrunners to buy eight power plants in the southeastern U.S. from Duke Energy, Power Finance and Risk said. Taiwanese stocks slumped in the U.S., pointing to further declines Tuesday in Taipei, Bloomberg reported.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio was down today as its 100% net long market exposure left it exposed to today's broad-based sell-off. I lowered market exposure to 25% net long in the afternoon. While I think we are getting very close to the bottom of this correction, I am not going to fight the tape. The SOX broke its 200-day moving average, but not convincingly. The NYSE Arms Index reached levels not seen since the bottom last March. However, the Put/Call ratio and VIX, which also spiked today, are still well off levels normally associated with bottoms. Finally, breadth was very bad today on average volume. Thus, I will keep the Portfolio close to market neutral, without adding new shorts, as I believe the major U.S. indices very oversold short-term.
NASDAQ 1,909.90 -1.58%
Leading Sectors
Restaurants +.11%
Defense -.31%
Foods -.68%
Lagging Sectors
Papers -2.72%
Networking -3.20%
Airlines -3.21%
Other
Crude Oil 37.15 +.27%
Natural Gas 5.55 +.07%
Gold 417.20 -.10%
Base Metals 112.31 -.67%
U.S. Dollar 87.81 -.36%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 3.71% -1.55%
VIX 21.58 +12.69%
Put/Call .96 -5.88%
NYSE Arms 3.35 +65.02%
After-hours Movers
PLMO +11.3% after significantly beating 3Q estimates and raising 4Q guidance substantially.
PSRC +5.2% on PLMO earnings report.
SKIL +5.1% on better-than-expected 4Q earnings.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on AL, sees 31% upside from current levels. GS reiterated Outperform on CCL. Merrill Lynch raised Hong Kong to Overweight and cut Taiwan to Marketweight.
After-hours News
U.S. stocks fell again today as geopolitical concerns weighed heavily on airline and technology shares. Goldman Sachs says pension reform initiatives will have no major impact on equity and fixed income markets. Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse First Boston Private Equity are the frontrunners to buy eight power plants in the southeastern U.S. from Duke Energy, Power Finance and Risk said. Taiwanese stocks slumped in the U.S., pointing to further declines Tuesday in Taipei, Bloomberg reported.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio was down today as its 100% net long market exposure left it exposed to today's broad-based sell-off. I lowered market exposure to 25% net long in the afternoon. While I think we are getting very close to the bottom of this correction, I am not going to fight the tape. The SOX broke its 200-day moving average, but not convincingly. The NYSE Arms Index reached levels not seen since the bottom last March. However, the Put/Call ratio and VIX, which also spiked today, are still well off levels normally associated with bottoms. Finally, breadth was very bad today on average volume. Thus, I will keep the Portfolio close to market neutral, without adding new shorts, as I believe the major U.S. indices very oversold short-term.
Mid-day Update
S&P 500 1,095.61 -1.28%
NASDAQ 1,907.07 -1.72%
Leading Sectors
Restaurants +.25%
Drugs -.42%
Energy -.64%
Lagging Sectors
I-Banks -2.81%
Networking -3.05%
Airlines -3.17%
Other
Crude Oil 37.15 -2.44%
Natural Gas 5.51 -1.20%
Gold 418.30 +1.36%
Base Metals 112.31 -.67%
U.S. Dollar 87.62 -.58%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 3.74% +.90%
VIX 21.61 +12.85%
Put/Call .82 -19.61%
NYSE Arms 3.18 +56.65%
Market Movers
USON +18.9% on $1.7B buyout by Welsh Carson.
MAGS +26% as investors anticipate increased demand for security systems.
NSSC +21.7% on positive Barron's recommendation.
EWT -11.7% on Taiwan political unrest.
IFF -6.6% after negative "Heard on the Street" column in the WSJ.
SSCC -7.0% after lowering 1Q earnings forecast.
Economic Data
None of note.
Recommendations
Tom Kurlak says in a Street.com editorial that he couldn't disagree more with Wall Street's concern that semiconductors have seen their best earnings growth rates for this cycle. His favorites are INTC, AMAT, TER, MU, BRCM and AVX. Goldman Sachs reiterates Underperform on TE and RKY. GS reiterates Outperform on EBAY, MO, BSX, PAYX, CAKE, WEN, YUM, KO, CCE and PEP. GS raising CBL to Outperform. Goldman becoming more confident in a significant employment pick-up, benefiting SIR, RMK, MLHR and SCS, favorite is KROL. Citi Smith Barney says MU will deliver strong 2Q results and make positive comments on 3Q. HTLD raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley, $26 target. FON and CCI raised to Overweight at JP Morgan.
Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are falling mid-day on numerous geopolitical concerns, led by weakness in airline and technology shares. WalMart said same-store sales for March are tracking at the high end of the company's plan. Citi Smith Barney Chief North American Economist says that the recent Manpower employment survey is indicative of 700,000 new jobs being created in the second quarter, but that must be seen for investors to be convinced. Makers of antidepressants should better warn doctors and patients about suicide risk for people taking the medicines, the U.S. FDA said. Crude oil futures fell after officials from 2 members of OPEC said the group may postpone a cut in production quotas that was due to start April 1. Concerns that inflation will soon begin increasing are "premature" and it is unlikely inflation will increase significantly said Michael Moskow, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Moskow also said employment will pick-up as the economy continues to expand and that the Fed can be "patient" on policy accommodation.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is 100% net long and is down today on weakness in almost every sector. The NYSE Arms Index reached 4.52 this morning. The last time it reached such an extreme level was at the lows last March right before the bull market began. I have not traded as of yet. I am waiting to see if the morning lows on the S&P 500 will hold. I will likely cut market exposure significantly in the afternoon on a convincing break of the morning lows.
NASDAQ 1,907.07 -1.72%
Leading Sectors
Restaurants +.25%
Drugs -.42%
Energy -.64%
Lagging Sectors
I-Banks -2.81%
Networking -3.05%
Airlines -3.17%
Other
Crude Oil 37.15 -2.44%
Natural Gas 5.51 -1.20%
Gold 418.30 +1.36%
Base Metals 112.31 -.67%
U.S. Dollar 87.62 -.58%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 3.74% +.90%
VIX 21.61 +12.85%
Put/Call .82 -19.61%
NYSE Arms 3.18 +56.65%
Market Movers
USON +18.9% on $1.7B buyout by Welsh Carson.
MAGS +26% as investors anticipate increased demand for security systems.
NSSC +21.7% on positive Barron's recommendation.
EWT -11.7% on Taiwan political unrest.
IFF -6.6% after negative "Heard on the Street" column in the WSJ.
SSCC -7.0% after lowering 1Q earnings forecast.
Economic Data
None of note.
Recommendations
Tom Kurlak says in a Street.com editorial that he couldn't disagree more with Wall Street's concern that semiconductors have seen their best earnings growth rates for this cycle. His favorites are INTC, AMAT, TER, MU, BRCM and AVX. Goldman Sachs reiterates Underperform on TE and RKY. GS reiterates Outperform on EBAY, MO, BSX, PAYX, CAKE, WEN, YUM, KO, CCE and PEP. GS raising CBL to Outperform. Goldman becoming more confident in a significant employment pick-up, benefiting SIR, RMK, MLHR and SCS, favorite is KROL. Citi Smith Barney says MU will deliver strong 2Q results and make positive comments on 3Q. HTLD raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley, $26 target. FON and CCI raised to Overweight at JP Morgan.
Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are falling mid-day on numerous geopolitical concerns, led by weakness in airline and technology shares. WalMart said same-store sales for March are tracking at the high end of the company's plan. Citi Smith Barney Chief North American Economist says that the recent Manpower employment survey is indicative of 700,000 new jobs being created in the second quarter, but that must be seen for investors to be convinced. Makers of antidepressants should better warn doctors and patients about suicide risk for people taking the medicines, the U.S. FDA said. Crude oil futures fell after officials from 2 members of OPEC said the group may postpone a cut in production quotas that was due to start April 1. Concerns that inflation will soon begin increasing are "premature" and it is unlikely inflation will increase significantly said Michael Moskow, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Moskow also said employment will pick-up as the economy continues to expand and that the Fed can be "patient" on policy accommodation.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is 100% net long and is down today on weakness in almost every sector. The NYSE Arms Index reached 4.52 this morning. The last time it reached such an extreme level was at the lows last March right before the bull market began. I have not traded as of yet. I am waiting to see if the morning lows on the S&P 500 will hold. I will likely cut market exposure significantly in the afternoon on a convincing break of the morning lows.
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