S&P 500 1,099.48 +.30%
NASDAQ 1,845.68 +.48%
Leading Sectors
Networking +1.24%
Oil Service +.99%
Semis +.88%
Lagging Sectors
Papers -.94%
Iron/Steel -1.21%
Homebuilders -1.73%
Other
Crude Oil 45.12 -.20%
Natural Gas 5.34 +.04%
Gold 409.20 +1.06%
Base Metals 107.78 -1.29%
U.S. Dollar 89.36 -.10%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.24% -.73%
VIX 15.0 -2.15%
Put/Call .66 -16.46%
NYSE Arms 1.05 -14.63%
Market Movers
DITC +20.8% after beating 1Q estimates and raising 2Q forecast.
SMTC +7.3% after beating 2Q estimates, reiterating 3Q forecast and Legg Mason upgrade to Buy.
BNK +10.5% after disclosing it is in talks with Toronto-Dominion Bank for "a possible transaction."
WSM +10.2% after beating 2Q estimates and raising 3Q/4Q forecasts.
TZOO +5.3% on continuing short-squeeze.
EYET +4.7% after saying they will learn Friday whether their drug for treating blindness will move closer to FDA approval.
SEAC -10.4% after beating 2Q forecast and reiterating 3Q guidance.
HRB -7.6% after missing 1Q estimates and giving weak 05 guidance.
CNX -6.9% after lowering 3Q estimates substantially.
Economic Data
Durable Goods Orders for July rose 1.7% versus estimates of a 1.0% increase and an upwardly revised 1.1% rise in June.
Durable Goods Less Transportation rose .1% versus estimates of a 1.3% increase and a .3% fall in June.
New Home Sales for July came in at 1.13M versus estimates of 1.3M and a downwardly revised 1.21M in June.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on GDT, STLD, CVD, IACI, WAG and FSL. Goldman reiterated Underperform on HRB. Citi SmithBarney reiterated Buy on GIS, target $51.50. Citi reiterated Buy on AVO, target $46. Citi reiterated Buy on COO, target $70. CFSI rated Overweight at JP Morgan. PIR rated Sell at Deutsche, target $14. JWN rated Buy at Deutsche Bank, target $47. NMG/A rated Buy at Deutsche Bank, target $67. FD rated Buy at Deutsche Bank, target $55. SKS rated Sell at Deutsche Bank, target $10. DDS rated Sell at Deutsche Bank, target $15. SMTC raised to Buy at Legg Mason, target $23. PPC raised to Outperform at CSFB, target $30. CFSI rated Outperform at CSFB, target $16. Merrill Lynch rated COO Focus 1 stock of the week.
Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are higher mid-day on another fall in oil prices and mixed economic reports. Senator Kerry's campaign promises conflict with his pledge to reduce the federal budget deficit, the Washington Post said, citing its review of the four-term senator's tax cut and spending proposals. Scientists at a Becton, Dickinson unit and the U.S. Army have developed an inhaled vaccine that could potentially protect against anthrax infection and be more easily stockpiled for emergencies, Reuters reported. Viacom may enter the video game business and is eyeing Electronic Arts as a purchase target, the New York Post said. GM, Ford and Chrysler are offering rebates and financing deals that lower the value of their vehicles in the minds of consumers, the AP reported. California may surpass Nevada in annual revenue from gambling by the end of the decade, the LA Times said. Sprint and Mediacom agreed to provide phone service to more than 2 million Mediacom cable customers starting next year, the companies said. The UN appealed for $434 million to provide for humanitarian needs in Sudan's western Darfur region, and other areas of the African country, Bloomberg reported. U.S. orders for durable goods rose 1.7% in July, more than forecast, as bookings surged for commercial aircraft and demand increased for business equipment, Bloomberg reported. U.S. new home sales in July fell more than forecast to a 1.13 million annual rate, the slowest pace of the year, Bloomberg said.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly higher mid-day as my declining homebuilding longs are more than offset by my falling steel shorts and rising alternative energy longs. I have not traded today and the Portfolio is still 50% net long. The tone of the market is improving again today as oil continues to fall. While the new home sales numbers were disappointing, they were still relatively strong and will likely accelerate as mortgage rates fall further and energy prices decline. I expect U.S. stocks to rise modestly into the close.
Wednesday, August 25, 2004
Wednesday Watch
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
CWTR/.00
DLTR/.26
SJM/.56
MIK/.40
TOL/1.19
WSM/.19
Splits
IVX 5-for-4
Economic Data
Durable Goods Orders for July estimated up 1.0% versus an increase of .9% in June.
Durable Goods Less Transportation for July estimated up 1.3% versus a decrease of .4% in June.
New Home Sales for July estimated at 1.3M versus 1.33M in June.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on NFP.
Late-Night News
Asian indices are mostly higher as exporters rise after oil prices remained near a 2-week low. General Motors is cutting back production of its Hummer H2 sport-utility vehicle because of lower consumer demand for the large vehicles, the Wall Street Journal reported. Boeing won a $3.7 billion order from Singapore Airlines for 18 long-range 777s, beating out Airbus SAS, Bloomberg reported. Shareholders of Wal-Mart Stores say the world's biggest retailer should proceed with a plan to buy stores from Daiei, a Japanese supermarket chain that is trying to restructure more than $9 billion in debt, Bloomberg said. Two Russian airliners crashed nearly simultaneously late Tuesday, purportedly killing all 86 people on board. Authorities suspect terrorism, CNN reported. A resurgence of capital spending by companies such as Boeing, Caterpillar and Verizon Communications may create jobs and strengthen the U.S. economy after a mid-year lull, economists say.
Late-Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.01%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.11%
BOTTOM LINE: I expect U.S. equities to open modestly higher in the morning on strength in Asia and continuing optimism over falling oil prices. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into tomorrow.
Company/Estimate
CWTR/.00
DLTR/.26
SJM/.56
MIK/.40
TOL/1.19
WSM/.19
Splits
IVX 5-for-4
Economic Data
Durable Goods Orders for July estimated up 1.0% versus an increase of .9% in June.
Durable Goods Less Transportation for July estimated up 1.3% versus a decrease of .4% in June.
New Home Sales for July estimated at 1.3M versus 1.33M in June.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on NFP.
Late-Night News
Asian indices are mostly higher as exporters rise after oil prices remained near a 2-week low. General Motors is cutting back production of its Hummer H2 sport-utility vehicle because of lower consumer demand for the large vehicles, the Wall Street Journal reported. Boeing won a $3.7 billion order from Singapore Airlines for 18 long-range 777s, beating out Airbus SAS, Bloomberg reported. Shareholders of Wal-Mart Stores say the world's biggest retailer should proceed with a plan to buy stores from Daiei, a Japanese supermarket chain that is trying to restructure more than $9 billion in debt, Bloomberg said. Two Russian airliners crashed nearly simultaneously late Tuesday, purportedly killing all 86 people on board. Authorities suspect terrorism, CNN reported. A resurgence of capital spending by companies such as Boeing, Caterpillar and Verizon Communications may create jobs and strengthen the U.S. economy after a mid-year lull, economists say.
Late-Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.01%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.11%
BOTTOM LINE: I expect U.S. equities to open modestly higher in the morning on strength in Asia and continuing optimism over falling oil prices. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into tomorrow.
Tuesday, August 24, 2004
Tuesday Close
S&P 500 1,096.19 +.05%
NASDAQ 1,836.89 -.10%
Leading Sectors
Airlines +2.44%
Restaurants +1.07%
Transports +.84%
Lagging Sectors
Broadcasting -.79%
Networking -1.15%
Semis -2.52%
Other
Crude Oil 45.15 -1.95%
Natural Gas 5.36 +1.04%
Gold 405.50 -1.77%
Base Metals 109.19 +.26%
U.S. Dollar 89.43 +.42%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.27% -.36%
VIX 15.33 -3.46%
Put/Call .79 unch.
NYSE Arms 1.23 +21.78%
After-hours Movers
DITC +27.07% after beating 1Q estimates and raising 2Q forecast.
SMTC +7.2% after beating 2Q estimates and reiterating 3Q forecast.
SEAC -3.62% after beating 2Q forecast and reiterating 3Q guidance.
APPB -4.45% after saying the Olympics will hurt sales first week in Sept.
HRB -7.87% after missing 1Q estimates and giving weak 05 guidance.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on BBY, HD, SPLS, PETC, JTX and MDT.
After-hours News
U.S. stocks finished mixed today as falling oil prices offset weaker economic data and terrorism fears ahead of the Republican Convention. Hedge funds, pension funds and other buyers of bonds are planning to hire more fixed-income professionals even as U.S. bond markets are enduring a lackluster year, Reuters reported. Rapid advancements in biotechnology in the past five years have created demand for more lawyers in the field, the New York Law Journal reported. Sunoco, the largest oil refiner in the U.S. Northeast, will shut much of its plant in Marcus Hook, Pennsylvania, on Sept. 5 for two to three weeks of maintenance, Reuters said. Alan Greenspan said the case has not been made to monitor hedge funds and that China's slowing economy should rebound, Bloomberg reported. H&R Block had a $44.1 million loss in its fiscal first quarter as earnings from mortgage loans fell and an office expansion increased costs, Bloomberg said. Sugar-rich soft drinks and fruit punch are fueling twin surges in U.S. obesity and diabetes, according to a U.S. study in the Aug. 25 Journal of the American Medical Association. California's credit rating on $42.7 billion of bonds was raised three levels by S&P after the state's economy improved and Governor Schwarzenegger engineered a bond sale to avert a cast shortage, Bloomberg reported. Viacom, signaling that investors are shunning its plan to split off home-video unit Blockbuster, said it may once again have to write down the value of the video rental chain's assets, Bloomberg said.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished slightly lower today as my shorts were mixed and technology longs fell. I added a few new longs in the afternoon, bringing the Portfolio's market exposure to 50% net long. One of my new longs is AMXC and I am using a stop-loss of $16 on this position. The tone of the market was pretty good today, considering last week's run-up. The market appears to be consolidating before another move higher next week.
NASDAQ 1,836.89 -.10%
Leading Sectors
Airlines +2.44%
Restaurants +1.07%
Transports +.84%
Lagging Sectors
Broadcasting -.79%
Networking -1.15%
Semis -2.52%
Other
Crude Oil 45.15 -1.95%
Natural Gas 5.36 +1.04%
Gold 405.50 -1.77%
Base Metals 109.19 +.26%
U.S. Dollar 89.43 +.42%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.27% -.36%
VIX 15.33 -3.46%
Put/Call .79 unch.
NYSE Arms 1.23 +21.78%
After-hours Movers
DITC +27.07% after beating 1Q estimates and raising 2Q forecast.
SMTC +7.2% after beating 2Q estimates and reiterating 3Q forecast.
SEAC -3.62% after beating 2Q forecast and reiterating 3Q guidance.
APPB -4.45% after saying the Olympics will hurt sales first week in Sept.
HRB -7.87% after missing 1Q estimates and giving weak 05 guidance.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on BBY, HD, SPLS, PETC, JTX and MDT.
After-hours News
U.S. stocks finished mixed today as falling oil prices offset weaker economic data and terrorism fears ahead of the Republican Convention. Hedge funds, pension funds and other buyers of bonds are planning to hire more fixed-income professionals even as U.S. bond markets are enduring a lackluster year, Reuters reported. Rapid advancements in biotechnology in the past five years have created demand for more lawyers in the field, the New York Law Journal reported. Sunoco, the largest oil refiner in the U.S. Northeast, will shut much of its plant in Marcus Hook, Pennsylvania, on Sept. 5 for two to three weeks of maintenance, Reuters said. Alan Greenspan said the case has not been made to monitor hedge funds and that China's slowing economy should rebound, Bloomberg reported. H&R Block had a $44.1 million loss in its fiscal first quarter as earnings from mortgage loans fell and an office expansion increased costs, Bloomberg said. Sugar-rich soft drinks and fruit punch are fueling twin surges in U.S. obesity and diabetes, according to a U.S. study in the Aug. 25 Journal of the American Medical Association. California's credit rating on $42.7 billion of bonds was raised three levels by S&P after the state's economy improved and Governor Schwarzenegger engineered a bond sale to avert a cast shortage, Bloomberg reported. Viacom, signaling that investors are shunning its plan to split off home-video unit Blockbuster, said it may once again have to write down the value of the video rental chain's assets, Bloomberg said.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished slightly lower today as my shorts were mixed and technology longs fell. I added a few new longs in the afternoon, bringing the Portfolio's market exposure to 50% net long. One of my new longs is AMXC and I am using a stop-loss of $16 on this position. The tone of the market was pretty good today, considering last week's run-up. The market appears to be consolidating before another move higher next week.
Mid-day Update
S&P 500 1,096.21 +.05%
NASDAQ 1,836.85 -.16%
Leading Sectors
Airlines +2.31%
Restaurants +1.17%
Transports +.61%
Lagging Sectors
Commodity -.71%
Oil Service -1.03%
Semis -2.11%
Other
Crude Oil 45.20 -1.89%
Natural Gas 5.27 -.66%
Gold 405.70 -1.72%
Base Metals 109.19 +.26%
U.S. Dollar 89.47 +.47%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.29% +.32%
VIX 15.54 -2.14%
Put/Call .76 -3.80%
NYSE Arms 1.29 +27.72%
Market Movers
POSS -37.4% after reiterating 4Q outlook, lowering 05 guidance and saying a study showed its AngioJet medical device shouldn't be routinely used to reduce blood vessel clots in heart attack patients.
BRCM -6.4% after CSFB lowered its 3Q/4Q estimates and price target.
PCP +6.7% after Bank of America upgrade to Buy.
DLP +9.8% after saying it will enter a long-term agreement with Syngenta AG to develop and sell new biotechnology products for cotton.
PERY +5.5% after exceeding 2Q estimates.
SAFM -23.2% after missing 3Q estimates and lowering 04 outlook.
AD -13.9% after lowering 04 guidance and multiple downgrades.
TTC -5.6% after exceeding 3Q estimates and lowering 04 guidance.
GOOG -4.4% on profit-taking after IPO run-up.
Economic Data
Existing Home Sales for July were 6.72M versus estimates of 6.81M and 6.92M in June.
Recommendations
OTEX rated Buy at Merrill, target $28. POT raised to Buy at Merrill. CLS raised to Outperform at Thomas Weisel. SANM raised to Outperform at Thomas Weisel. BEC raised to Outperform at Thomas Weisel. PCP raised to Buy at Bank of America, target $64. VSAT rated Buy at Oppenheimer, target $25. Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on A, IP, DTC, ALK, CAL and SPP. Goldman raised CAT to Outperform. Citi SmithBarney reiterated Buy on MWD, target $72. Citi reiterated Buy on PTP, target $34. Citi reiterated Buy on MXRE, target $24. Citi reiterated Buy on FLEX, target $22. Citi reiterated Buy on TOY, target $23.
Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are mixed mid-day as falling energy prices offset weaker economic data. Bioenvision expects as much as $300 million in sales from its clofarabine drug, which treats acute and chronic leukemia, CEO Wood told CNBC. The European Commission plans to extend its probe into plans by Microsoft and Time Warner to buy control of ContentGuard, a U.S. maker of anti-piracy software, Reuters said. Osama bin Laden's chauffeur was arraigned today on terrorism charges before a military tribunal at the U.S. naval base at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, the AP said. California's Senate yesterday passed a bill aimed at keeping companies from moving jobs to other countries, the LA Times reported. The measure was passed even though an unreleased report commissioned by the leadership of the California State Assembly found the measure would cost more jobs than it would save, the newspaper said. Iraqi Vice-President Ibrahim al-Jafari made a surprise visit to neighboring Iran to meet President Mohammad Khatami and other members of the leadership, Agence France-Presse reported. U.S. 10-year Treasury notes declined for a third day, the longest drop in a month, after Federal Reserve Governor Bernanke said oil prices near record highs won't derail growth in the world's largest economy, Bloomberg reported. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the nation's largest business organization, said it will help pay for ads suggesting the economic "dangers" associated with having trial lawyers aligned with the White House, Bloomberg reported. Crude oil futures fell for a third session, dropping as low as $44.95 a barrel, on speculation that increased Iraqi shipments will help meet global needs, Bloomberg said.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly lower mid-day as my shorts are mixed and my technology longs are falling. I took profits in a few longs this morning and added a new short, bringing the Portfolio's market exposure to 25% net long. My new short is ERTS and I am using a $51.25 stop-loss on the position. I now believe oil has seen its highs for the intermediate-term. Another move up to test the highs could occur during September, however I believe it will fail and the price of crude will head relentlessly towards the mid-30's by year's end. This is a very positive development and was necessary for the strong rally I envision during the fourth quarter. Stocks will likely remain mixed into the close, however with oil falling I am not ruling out another leg up.
NASDAQ 1,836.85 -.16%
Leading Sectors
Airlines +2.31%
Restaurants +1.17%
Transports +.61%
Lagging Sectors
Commodity -.71%
Oil Service -1.03%
Semis -2.11%
Other
Crude Oil 45.20 -1.89%
Natural Gas 5.27 -.66%
Gold 405.70 -1.72%
Base Metals 109.19 +.26%
U.S. Dollar 89.47 +.47%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.29% +.32%
VIX 15.54 -2.14%
Put/Call .76 -3.80%
NYSE Arms 1.29 +27.72%
Market Movers
POSS -37.4% after reiterating 4Q outlook, lowering 05 guidance and saying a study showed its AngioJet medical device shouldn't be routinely used to reduce blood vessel clots in heart attack patients.
BRCM -6.4% after CSFB lowered its 3Q/4Q estimates and price target.
PCP +6.7% after Bank of America upgrade to Buy.
DLP +9.8% after saying it will enter a long-term agreement with Syngenta AG to develop and sell new biotechnology products for cotton.
PERY +5.5% after exceeding 2Q estimates.
SAFM -23.2% after missing 3Q estimates and lowering 04 outlook.
AD -13.9% after lowering 04 guidance and multiple downgrades.
TTC -5.6% after exceeding 3Q estimates and lowering 04 guidance.
GOOG -4.4% on profit-taking after IPO run-up.
Economic Data
Existing Home Sales for July were 6.72M versus estimates of 6.81M and 6.92M in June.
Recommendations
OTEX rated Buy at Merrill, target $28. POT raised to Buy at Merrill. CLS raised to Outperform at Thomas Weisel. SANM raised to Outperform at Thomas Weisel. BEC raised to Outperform at Thomas Weisel. PCP raised to Buy at Bank of America, target $64. VSAT rated Buy at Oppenheimer, target $25. Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on A, IP, DTC, ALK, CAL and SPP. Goldman raised CAT to Outperform. Citi SmithBarney reiterated Buy on MWD, target $72. Citi reiterated Buy on PTP, target $34. Citi reiterated Buy on MXRE, target $24. Citi reiterated Buy on FLEX, target $22. Citi reiterated Buy on TOY, target $23.
Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are mixed mid-day as falling energy prices offset weaker economic data. Bioenvision expects as much as $300 million in sales from its clofarabine drug, which treats acute and chronic leukemia, CEO Wood told CNBC. The European Commission plans to extend its probe into plans by Microsoft and Time Warner to buy control of ContentGuard, a U.S. maker of anti-piracy software, Reuters said. Osama bin Laden's chauffeur was arraigned today on terrorism charges before a military tribunal at the U.S. naval base at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, the AP said. California's Senate yesterday passed a bill aimed at keeping companies from moving jobs to other countries, the LA Times reported. The measure was passed even though an unreleased report commissioned by the leadership of the California State Assembly found the measure would cost more jobs than it would save, the newspaper said. Iraqi Vice-President Ibrahim al-Jafari made a surprise visit to neighboring Iran to meet President Mohammad Khatami and other members of the leadership, Agence France-Presse reported. U.S. 10-year Treasury notes declined for a third day, the longest drop in a month, after Federal Reserve Governor Bernanke said oil prices near record highs won't derail growth in the world's largest economy, Bloomberg reported. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the nation's largest business organization, said it will help pay for ads suggesting the economic "dangers" associated with having trial lawyers aligned with the White House, Bloomberg reported. Crude oil futures fell for a third session, dropping as low as $44.95 a barrel, on speculation that increased Iraqi shipments will help meet global needs, Bloomberg said.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly lower mid-day as my shorts are mixed and my technology longs are falling. I took profits in a few longs this morning and added a new short, bringing the Portfolio's market exposure to 25% net long. My new short is ERTS and I am using a $51.25 stop-loss on the position. I now believe oil has seen its highs for the intermediate-term. Another move up to test the highs could occur during September, however I believe it will fail and the price of crude will head relentlessly towards the mid-30's by year's end. This is a very positive development and was necessary for the strong rally I envision during the fourth quarter. Stocks will likely remain mixed into the close, however with oil falling I am not ruling out another leg up.
Tuesday Watch
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
APSG/.26
HUG/1.16
HNZ/.55
HRB/-.05
DITC/.22
OVTI/.30
RGS/.59
SAFM/1.93
SEAC/.11
SMTC/.21
TTC/1.28
Splits
BLL 2-for-1
Economic Data
Existing Home Sales for July estimated at 6.81M versus 6.95M in June.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Underperform on PVH. Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on JTX.
Late-Night News
Asian indices are mostly higher as oil prices decline for a third day. Nokia, Motorola and other international makers of mobile phones have stopped losing market share in China to local manufacturers, the Financial Times reported. The SEC has ordered a study of off-balance-sheet accounting to determine whether companies are complying with new rules, the Financial Times reported. American International Group will compete with HSBC Holdings and Metlife of the U.S. to buy South Korea's SK Life Insurance, Yonhap News said. Adelphia Communications asked a U.S. bankruptcy court to order the Rigas family, the company's founding family, to repay the bankrupt U.S. cable-tv operator $3.2 billion, the Wall Street Journal said. Afghanistan's voter registration program, which began in December, ended with 10.3 million people enrolled for October's presidential poll and National Assembly elections scheduled for April, Bloomberg reported. Honda Motor said it is developing motorcycles that can run on gasoline-electric engines and fuel cells, extending the so-called hybrid technology for the first time to two-wheeled vehicles, Bloomberg reported.
Late-Night Trading
Asian Indices are unch. to +.75% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.03%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated unch.
BOTTOM LINE: I expect U.S. equities to open modestly higher on better economic data and declining oil prices. However, stocks will likely trade slightly lower later in the day on terrorism fears ahead of the Republican convention and profit-taking. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into tomorrow.
Company/Estimate
APSG/.26
HUG/1.16
HNZ/.55
HRB/-.05
DITC/.22
OVTI/.30
RGS/.59
SAFM/1.93
SEAC/.11
SMTC/.21
TTC/1.28
Splits
BLL 2-for-1
Economic Data
Existing Home Sales for July estimated at 6.81M versus 6.95M in June.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Underperform on PVH. Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on JTX.
Late-Night News
Asian indices are mostly higher as oil prices decline for a third day. Nokia, Motorola and other international makers of mobile phones have stopped losing market share in China to local manufacturers, the Financial Times reported. The SEC has ordered a study of off-balance-sheet accounting to determine whether companies are complying with new rules, the Financial Times reported. American International Group will compete with HSBC Holdings and Metlife of the U.S. to buy South Korea's SK Life Insurance, Yonhap News said. Adelphia Communications asked a U.S. bankruptcy court to order the Rigas family, the company's founding family, to repay the bankrupt U.S. cable-tv operator $3.2 billion, the Wall Street Journal said. Afghanistan's voter registration program, which began in December, ended with 10.3 million people enrolled for October's presidential poll and National Assembly elections scheduled for April, Bloomberg reported. Honda Motor said it is developing motorcycles that can run on gasoline-electric engines and fuel cells, extending the so-called hybrid technology for the first time to two-wheeled vehicles, Bloomberg reported.
Late-Night Trading
Asian Indices are unch. to +.75% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.03%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated unch.
BOTTOM LINE: I expect U.S. equities to open modestly higher on better economic data and declining oil prices. However, stocks will likely trade slightly lower later in the day on terrorism fears ahead of the Republican convention and profit-taking. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into tomorrow.
Monday, August 23, 2004
Monday Close
S&P 500 1,095.68 -.24%
NASDAQ 1,838.70 +.04%
Leading Sectors
Fashion +2.30%
Homebuilders +1.42%
Semis +1.06%
Lagging Sectors
Commodity -1.66%
Broadcasting -1.76%
Iron/Steel -2.18%
Other
Crude Oil 45.96 -.20%
Natural Gas 5.31 unch.
Gold 411.10 -.41%
Base Metals 108.91 -1.66%
U.S. Dollar 89.10 +1.11%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.28% +1.19%
VIX 15.88 -.75%
Put/Call .79 -17.71%
NYSE Arms 1.01 +53.03%
After-hours Movers
None of note.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on DVN and RE.
After-hours News
U.S. stocks finished mixed today as oil fell, interest rates rose and companies reported mixed earnings. After the close, Gap Inc. is exploring ways to expand internationally and may start a fourth brand in the U.S., the Financial Times reported. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell for a third day in four as a decline in oil prices from record highs reduced speculation economic growth will slow, Bloomberg reported. The number of U.S. adults with high blood pressure increased 30% over the past decade, according to a study in the journal Hypertension. Toyota Motor is raising U.S. prices for the Prius, its hybrid car powered by gasoline and electricity, by 2.9% as orders outstrip supply, Bloomberg reported. Iraq, which is trying to rebuild its Olympic sports after decades of decline under one of Saddam Hussein's sons, can clinch its first medal in 44 years by beating Paraguay in a soccer semifinal in Athens, Bloomberg said. Taiwan's financial markets and government offices were closed today as Typhoon Aere approaches the island with torrential rains and winds of up to 102 mph, Bloomberg reported.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished substantially higher today as my homebuilding, telecom equip. and Internet longs rose and my steel and Chinese ADR shorts fell. I took profits in a few longs in the afternoon, leaving the Portfolio 50% net long. The tone of the market was pretty good today considering recent gains. However, terrorism fears ahead of the Republican Convention will likely rise over the near-term. Moreover, I expect domestic terrorism fears to peak between the Republican Convention and the 9/11 anniversary. The terror premium in oil should erode, after this time period, through year's end. Finally, I continue to expect homebuilders and tech shares to outperform this week.
NASDAQ 1,838.70 +.04%
Leading Sectors
Fashion +2.30%
Homebuilders +1.42%
Semis +1.06%
Lagging Sectors
Commodity -1.66%
Broadcasting -1.76%
Iron/Steel -2.18%
Other
Crude Oil 45.96 -.20%
Natural Gas 5.31 unch.
Gold 411.10 -.41%
Base Metals 108.91 -1.66%
U.S. Dollar 89.10 +1.11%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.28% +1.19%
VIX 15.88 -.75%
Put/Call .79 -17.71%
NYSE Arms 1.01 +53.03%
After-hours Movers
None of note.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on DVN and RE.
After-hours News
U.S. stocks finished mixed today as oil fell, interest rates rose and companies reported mixed earnings. After the close, Gap Inc. is exploring ways to expand internationally and may start a fourth brand in the U.S., the Financial Times reported. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell for a third day in four as a decline in oil prices from record highs reduced speculation economic growth will slow, Bloomberg reported. The number of U.S. adults with high blood pressure increased 30% over the past decade, according to a study in the journal Hypertension. Toyota Motor is raising U.S. prices for the Prius, its hybrid car powered by gasoline and electricity, by 2.9% as orders outstrip supply, Bloomberg reported. Iraq, which is trying to rebuild its Olympic sports after decades of decline under one of Saddam Hussein's sons, can clinch its first medal in 44 years by beating Paraguay in a soccer semifinal in Athens, Bloomberg said. Taiwan's financial markets and government offices were closed today as Typhoon Aere approaches the island with torrential rains and winds of up to 102 mph, Bloomberg reported.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished substantially higher today as my homebuilding, telecom equip. and Internet longs rose and my steel and Chinese ADR shorts fell. I took profits in a few longs in the afternoon, leaving the Portfolio 50% net long. The tone of the market was pretty good today considering recent gains. However, terrorism fears ahead of the Republican Convention will likely rise over the near-term. Moreover, I expect domestic terrorism fears to peak between the Republican Convention and the 9/11 anniversary. The terror premium in oil should erode, after this time period, through year's end. Finally, I continue to expect homebuilders and tech shares to outperform this week.
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