Friday, August 12, 2005

Trade Deficit Widens, Import Prices Rise, Consumer Confidence Falls

- The Trade Deficit for June widened to -$58.8B versus estimates of -$57.2B and -$55.4B in May.
- The Import Price Index for July rose 1.1% versus estimates of a .6% increase and a 1.0% gain in June.
- The Preliminary Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for August fell to 92.7 versus estimates of 96.3 and a reading of 96.5 in July.

BOTTOM LINE: The US trade deficit widened more than forecast in June as a strengthening US economy prompted companies to import more expensive crude oil and a record amount of goods from China, Bloomberg reported. I continue to believe the trade deficit will only improve modestly by year-end.

Prices of goods imported into the US rose in July by the most in four months, pulled up by record crude oil costs. Excluding oil, import prices fell for a third straight month, Bloomberg reported. Import prices should subside further as oil declines in the fourth quarter.

US consumer confidence fell in August from the highest level of the year as Americans confronted record gasoline prices, Bloomberg said. I expect consumer confidence to begin rebounding in September and hit cycle highs by year-end as economic growth exceeds 4%, inflation decelerates, gas prices fall, interest rates remain relatively low and stock prices rise.

Links of Interest

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Friday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Crude oil is trading near a record $66.05/bbl. and gasoline and heating oil set all-time highs after a fire at a Sunoco pipeline heightened concern US refineries may struggle to meet second-half fuel demand.
- Japan’s 10-year bonds had the biggest gain in three weeks after a government report showed the economy expanded less than forecast last quarter.
- The US government said it will refer Iran to the UN Security Council unless it halts its uranium processing program, after the Iranian government rejected calls from a nuclear watchdog to stop the work.

Financial Times:
- A stampede of Chinese companies selling shares for the first time in the US could lead to a “bubble” that would devastate US investors, citing Richard D’Amato, chairman of a US security review.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Underperform on WTW.

Business Week:
- New River Pharmaceuticals(NRPH) is attracting investors who are betting on robust demand for the drug developer’s NRP104 product once it is available for general use.
- Shares of Pier 1 Imports(PIR) are being bought by an investor who has previously benefited from the stock.
- Alpha Natural Resources(ANR) shares may rise as high as $40 in the next year on higher earnings from coal produced in its eastern US mines.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are unch. to +.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.04%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.09%.

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MOVI/.51
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Upcoming Splits
None of note

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- The Trade Deficit for June is estimated to widen to -$57.2B versus -$55.3B in May.
- The Import Price Index for July is estimated to rise .6% versus a 1.0% gain in June.

9:45 am EST
- Preliminary Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for August is estimated to fall to 96.3 versus a reading of 96.5 in July.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, spurred by economic optimism in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly lower on weakness related to Dell’s earnings report. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Thursday, August 11, 2005

Stocks Finish Near Session Highs as Long-term Rates Decline

Indices
S&P 500 1,237.81 +.71%
DJIA 10,685.89 +.86%
NASDAQ 2,174.55 +.78%
Russell 2000 666.37 +.94%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,238.96 +.72%
S&P Barra Growth 593.60 +.75%
S&P Barra Value 639.80 +.66%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 592.18 +.67%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 758.96 +.64%
Morgan Stanley Technology 503.75 +.91%
Transports 3,762.84 +.52%
Utilities 397.22 +.94%
Put/Call .92 -8.0%
NYSE Arms .69 -40.52%
Volatility(VIX) 12.42 +.32%
ISE Sentiment 120.00 -36.17%
US Dollar 86.89 -.82%
CRB 322.59 +.83%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 65.87 +1.49%
Unleaded Gasoline 196.10 +3.41%
Natural Gas 9.38 +3.46%
Heating Oil 191.08 +3.92%
Gold 451.30 +.09%
Base Metals 127.54 +.13%
Copper 164.50 -.12%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.32% -1.60%

Leading Sectors
Gold & Silver +4.11%
Restaurants +3.06%
Biotech +1.32%

Lagging Sectors
Papers -.09%
Gaming -.15%
Airlines -.87%

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Afternoon Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on YHOO.
- Reiterated Underperform on FLWS and DE.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- The Chicago Board of Trade said new limits on Treasury futures holding are a “prudent and proactive” response to traders’ concerns about a potential shortage of bonds used the settle the contracts.
- Delta and Continental boosted airfares by $10 each way to counter rising fuel prices.
- An Oklahoma man was arrested for allegedly having an explosive device in his carry-on bag as he went to board a flight to Philadelphia.
- After the close, Dell reported second-quarter sales that misses analysts’ estimates and indicated revenue will fall short again this quarter after the company slashed prices to win market share.
- Intel may raise its dividend or buy back more shares because it has too much cash, CFO Andy Bryant said.
- American International Group boosted its quarterly shareholder dividend 20%, the first increase since the company restated $3.9 billion of profit in May.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished modestly higher today on gains in my Medical longs and Oil Tanker shorts. I added to my existing longs in the afternoon, thus leaving the Portfolio 50% net long. The tone of the market was positive today as the advance/decline line finished higher, almost every sector rose and volume was slightly below average. Measures of investor anxiety remained mixed into the close. Overall, today’s market action was positive. With the U.S. economy poised for 4%+ growth over the next couple of quarters and inflation readings under control, investors are likely viewing higher oil prices as a positive that may help bring growth back down to more sustainable levels.

Stocks Modestly Higher Mid-day as Oil Hits Another Record and Long-term Rates Fall

Indices
S&P 500 1,228.48 -.05%
DJIA 10,598.55 +.04%
NASDAQ 2,158.37 +.03%
Russell 2000 660.61 +.07%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,241.75 +.01%
S&P Barra Growth 589.25 +.01%
S&P Barra Value 635.56 -.01%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 588.50 +.05%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 753.91 -.04%
Morgan Stanley Technology 499.99 +.15%
Transports 3,744.99 +.04%
Utilities 394.40 +.23%
Put/Call .91 -9.0%
NYSE Arms .96 -17.02%
Volatility(VIX) 12.71 +2.67%
ISE Sentiment 127.00 -32.45%
US Dollar 87.07 -.62%
CRB 321.97 +.63%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 65.55 +.92%
Unleaded Gasoline 193.70 +2.15%
Natural Gas 9.23 +1.75%
Heating Oil 188.70 +2.51%
Gold 450.60 +1.95%
Base Metals 127.54 +.13%
Copper 164.70 +.76%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.33% -1.37%

Leading Sectors
Gold & Silver +3.84%
Restaurants +1.32%
Wireless +.94%

Lagging Sectors
Internet -.66%
Gaming -.83%
Airlines -1.16%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly higher mid-day on gains in my Oil Tanker shorts. I added to a few existing longs and shorts this morning, thus leaving the Portfolio 25% net long. The tone of the market is modestly positive as the advance/decline line is slightly higher, most sectors are higher and volume is below average. Measures of investor anxiety are mixed. Today’s overall market action is neutral considering the rise in oil and fall in long-term rates. The AAII % Bulls fell to 39.74% this week from 47.83% the prior week; this reading is now at slightly below average levels. Likewise, the % Bears rose to 28.85% from 26.09% the prior week; this is back to average levels. These readings should help contain any near-term pullback related to oil or rates. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close on lower long-term rates.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- The Italian economy grew at the fastest pace in more than four years in the second quarter, pulling the country out of recession and back on course to grow this year.
- The UN nuclear watchdog will vote on a resolution criticizing Iran’s resumption of uranium processing activities today.
- Pfizer said it is revamping its consumer marketing, including educating doctors for at least six months about new medicines before beginning television and print ads.
- Qualcomm agreed to buy Flarion Technologies for as much as $805 million to increase sales of modems and chips for high-speed wireless networks.
- US Treasuries are rising after demand from international investors rose for the first time this week at an auction by the Treasury.
- Crude oil is rising to a record $66 a barrel in NY after the IEA reduced its estimate of output by Russia and other non-OPEC producers.
- The US dollar dropped to a 10-week low against the euro and fell the weakest since June versus the yen after a government report showed US retail sales in July grew less than forecast.

Wall Street Journal:
- US credit-card issuers such as JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup’s Citibank and Bank of America are raising their maximum late-payment penalty rates past 30%, as the cost of using the cards rises.
- The revised US bankruptcy law with tighter rules on debtors that takes effect Oct. 17 may prompt companies to file for bankruptcy earlier than they had considered.
- US economists, including those from universities and even the Federal Reserve, have started “blogging,” posting their thoughts on all manner of subjects on the Internet.
- Cell phone text messaging, popular in China and Europe, is beginning to find favor among US consumers.

NY Times:
- Michael Powell, former chief of the FCC, is joining private equity firm Providence Equity Partners.
- Goldman Sachs reversed an earlier decision and now plans to build a $2 billion office opposite NY’s former World Trade Center site.
- US food and drink manufacturers such as PepsiCo have ordered scientists to try to find food ingredients that have either less fat, white flour, sugar and salt, or healthier components such as whole grains, fiber and fish oil.

Detroit News:
- Ford Motor will produce new Lincoln models at a plant in Atlanta.

Star-Ledger:
- New Jersey said 851 public schools failed to meet performance test standards last year, up from 585 schools the year before.

Chicago Tribune:
- Sears Holdings has posted about 90 help-wanted notices for executive positions on job Web site Monster.com

Newsweek:
- Cingular Wireless LLC and Time Warner’s HBO network are in talks to provide HBO shows on Cingular phones.

Reuters:
- DirectTV Group will stop marketing TiVo’s digital video recorders this year and replace them with its own products.