Tuesday, December 27, 2005

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- Boston Scientific plans to proceed with its $25 billion offer to buy Guidant Corp. even after the cardiac device maker said profits will sink because of product recalls.
- Hedge fund investors, frustrated by the lowest returns in three years, say they are giving more money to managers who bet on stocks and macroeconomic trends because they expect them to post the biggest gains in 2006.
- Guidant was barred by US regulators from exporting heart-rhythm devices from its principal plant in St. Paul, Minnesota, because of quality-system failures.
- Natural gas is plunging for a third day in NY, dropping almost 30% in 10 days, as warmer-than-normal weather slashed demand for the furnace fuel.

Wall Street Journal:
- Beijing’s Communist Party leadership has announced a campaign against bad manners as the city prepares to host an international throng of Olympic spectators in 2008.
- NY State AG Eliot Spitzer served subpoenas on Sony BMG Music Entertainment and Vivendi Universal’s Universal Music Group as part of an industry-wide investigation into pricing of digitally downloaded music.
- US Retail spending over the holiday shopping period rose a strong 8.7%, with the biggest increase in sales of home furnishings and consumer electronics.
- A lawsuit by as many as 1,000 employees of Cintas Corp. against unions trying to organize at the company’s plants may deter workers from supporting further organizing drive.
- GM will introduce sport-utility vehicles that consume less fuel next year, including a new version of the Chevy Tahoe, to help it reverse a decline in sales.
- Sanofi-Aventis SA investors hoping the company’s obesity drug Accomplia will become a miracle cure risk being disappointed.
- Gamco Investors’ Mario Gabelli’s involvement in more than a dozen bids for airwave licenses from the FCC have become the focus of a federal lawsuit.
- North Korea wants to end food aid from the UN and private charities to limit the international presence in the country, citing Richard Ragan, head of North Korean operations for the UN’s World Food Program.

NY Times:
- Michigan Governor Jennifer Granholm is courting Toyota Motor, which has said it may build an engine plant in the Midwest.
- Louisiana planners are seeking to move an entire string of seaside Cajun towns and villages and their 4,000 residents in Cameron Parish as much as 20 miles inland.
- Sears Holdings, Target and other US retailers are tightening store policies to discourage returns because of the extra labor they involve.

NY Post:
- NYC’s Department of Health is buying radiation-detection equipment for 33 private city hospitals to prepare for the possibility of a “dirty bomb” attack.

AP:
- US companies, which contributed millions of dollars in relief following tsunamis, hurricanes and earthquakes in 2005, found their philanthropic works gave them a competitive advantage in the marketplace.
- More than 10,000 Iraqi demonstrators backing Sunni Arab and secular Shiite politicians marched through the streets of Baghdad today to push for unity throughout the country.

AFP:
- Britain and Sweden are the only European countries that are likely to meet their Kyoto Protocol commitments on greenhouse gas emissions, citing a UK study.

BBC:
- Numerous mass graves with thousands of bodies have been discovered in Iraq since the ousting of dictator Saddam Hussein in 2003.

Manufacturing Slows in Mid-Atlantic, Outlook Improves

- The Richmond Fed Index for December fell to -2 versus estimates of 10 and a reading of 9 in November.
BOTTOM LINE: Manufacturing activity in the Central Atlantic region edged lower in December, Bloomberg reported. The shipments component of the index fell to 1 from 14. The new orders component fell to -2 from 10 and a gauge of manufacturing employment in the region fell to -6 from 0. However, measures of confidence improved as the expected shipments component rose 21 points to 50. The expected new orders component of the index rose 20 to 43. The index for expected manufacturing employment rose 11 points to 10. Finally, the planned capital expenditures component rose 6 points to 18. I continue to believe manufacturing will add to US economic growth over the intermediate-term as businesses increase spending, inventories are rebuilt and hurricane rebuilding accelerates.

Links of Interest

Market Snapshot
Detailed Market Summary
Market Internals
Economic Commentary
Movers & Shakers
IBD New America
NYSE OrderTrac
I-Watch Sector Overview
NYSE Unusual Volume
NASDAQ Unusual Volume
Hot Spots
NASDAQ 100 Heatmap
DJIA Quick Charts
Chart Toppers
Option Dragon
Real-time Intraday Chart/Quote

Monday, December 26, 2005

Tuesday Watch

Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- US toy sales are headed for their third straight annual decline because children like 6-year-old Dawson Painter prefer electronic games.
- President Bush asked Americans to keep the families of US military men and women in mind during the Christmas holiday, saying their wartime sacrifices are protecting the country’s freedoms.
- Eastman Kodak probably generated increased holiday sales of digital cameras and printers, boosting efforts by the world’s largest photography company to shift from its traditional film business.
- Amazon.com said holiday sale worldwide set a record this year on demand for Apple’s iPod music players, video games and jewelry.
- Royal Dutch Shell Plc said it discovered oil off Brazil’s southeastern coast and wants to start producing by the end of the decade.
- The yen is falling by the most against the euro in more than two months and had the biggest loss versus the dollar in a week after reports showed Japanese household spending unexpectedly slid and unemployment increased.
- Crude oil is falling as much as 1.4% in NY on forecasts for milder weather in the US and on expectations heating fuel stockpiles, including natural gas, are adequate to meet winter demand.

NY Times:
- Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch are among Wall Street firms investing in online casinos and betting parlors and ignoring the government’s edict that those organizations are illegal.
- Pennsylvania lawmakers are investigating whether the political atmosphere of 18 state-run universities and colleges requires legislation to ban political bias in the classroom.
- The Israeli economy is likely to grow 5% this year, up from 4% in 2004, as its technology industries approach the peak they reached in 2000.

Washington Post:
- Immigrant entrepreneurs in the US are using small vending carts or kiosks in malls as a springboard into retailing.

Economic Daily News:
- Global shipments for flat-panel displays used in computers will see a modest slide in the first quarter of 2006, falling by a single digit from the fourth quarter, citing AU Optronics Executive VP Hui.

Kommersant:
- OPEC President Sheikh al-Sabah is visiting Moscow to ask Russia to cooperate on a planned cut in oil production and to learn more about Russia’s plans to supply China.

Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Had positive comments on OSK, COP, APC and FDX.
- Had negative comments on GE and NTRI.

Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on EBAY.

Night Trading
Asian indices are -.50% to +.50% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.13%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.24%.

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Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
CBI/.26
TDS/.29
USM/.37

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Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
- Richmond Fed Index for December is estimated to rise to 10 versus a reading of 9 in November.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian Indices are mixed, as declining energy prices are offsetting disappointing economic data from Japan. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and build on gains later in the day. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Friday, December 23, 2005

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices
S&P 500 1,268.66 +.11%
DJIA 10,883.27 +.07%
NASDAQ 2,249.42 -.14%
Russell 2000 686.44 +.49%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,692.96 +.20%
S&P Equity Long/Short Index 1,108.41 +.27%
S&P Barra Growth 607.15 +.11%
S&P Barra Value 657.12 +.11%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 599.02 -.05%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 792.81 +.76%
Morgan Stanley Technology 532.92 -.32%
Transports 4,266.75 +3.0%
Utilities 411.65 -1.48%
S&P 500 Cum A/D Line 8,664 unch.
Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 21.9 -57.93%
Put/Call .69 -13.75%
NYSE Arms 1.30 +35.42%
Volatility(VIX) 10.27 -3.84%
ISE Sentiment 160.00 -13.98%
AAII % Bulls 41.03 -11.09%
US Dollar 90.78 +1.19%
CRB 326.31 -.01%
ECRI Weekly Leading Index 135.40 -.07%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 58.43 -.97%
Unleaded Gasoline 155.05 -.48%
Natural Gas 12.28 -10.01%
Heating Oil 170.53 -1.63%
Gold 505.90 -.16%
Base Metals 153.51 -.14%
Copper 203.50 +.20%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.38% -1.35%
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 6.26% -.63%

Leading Sectors
Disk Drives +8.45%
Gaming +2.94%
Drugs +2.92%

Lagging Sectors
Internet -1.33%
Utilities -1.48%
Oil Tankers -2.0%

One-Week High-Volume Gainers
One-Week High-Volume Losers

*5-Day % Change

***Alert***

I am done posting for the day. I will post the Weekly Scoreboard this evening.