BETWEEN THE HEDGES

Tuesday, August 15, 2006

Wednesday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 11:33 PM

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Investment in China’s real estate, factories and utilities slowed in July, suggesting government curbs on expansion are taking effect.
- The UN plans to deploy a 3,500-member force in southern Lebanon within 15 days as Israel began withdrawing its soldiers after a cease-fire halted more than a month of fighting with the Hezbollah group.
- Jones Apparel Group(JNY) abandoned an attempt to sell itself after failing to find a buyer.
- Australian consumer confidence plunged by the most in 17 years to a five-year low after the central bank raised interest rates a second time this year to stem inflation.

Financial Times:
- Hedge funds and banks will spend almost $500 million on technology this year to improve their credit derivatives system.

Xinhua News:
- China’s government will issue rules this month or in September to bar Internet Web sites from airing short films without government permission.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Smith Barney:
- Reiterated Buy on (DKS), target $48.
- Reiterated Buy on (HAR), target $110.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are +.50% to +1.0% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.01%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated unch.

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Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (BEAS)/.12
- (BLI)/-.05
- (CAI)/.72
- (CHRS)/.24
- (DAKT)/.16
- (EL)/.48
- (GYMB)/.03
- (HPQ)/.47
- (HOTT)/-.02
- (LDG)/.38
- (MW)/.58
- (NTAP)/.23
- (ROST)/.32
- (CRM)/.04
- (SNPS)/.18
- (TLB)/-.08

Upcoming Splits
- None of note

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- The Consumer Price Index for July is estimated to rise .4% versus a .2% gain in June.
- The CPI Ex Food & Energy for July is estimated to rise .2% versus a .3% gain in June.
- Housing Starts for July are estimated to fall to 1808K versus 1850K in June.
- Building Permits for July are estimated to fall to 1840K versus 1860K in June.

9:15 am EST
- Industrial Production for July is estimated to rise .6% versus a .8% gain in June.
- Capacity Utilization for July is estimated to rise to 82.7% versus 82.4% in June.

10:30 am EST
- Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude drawdown of 1,300,000 barrels. Gasoline supplies are expected to fall 1,800,000 barrels. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by 500,000 barrels. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise .25%.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and automaker stocks in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Finish Sharply Higher on Declining Inflation Worries, Lower Energy Prices and Lower Long-term Rates

Posted by Gary .....at 6:07 PM

Indices
S&P 500 1,285.58 +1.37%
DJIA 11,230.26 +1.19%
NASDAQ 2,115.01 +2.22%
Russell 2000 697.83 +2.36%
Wilshire 5000 12,835.40 +1.47%
S&P Barra Growth 594.03 +1.29%
S&P Barra Value 689.91 +1.45%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 627.54 +.98%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 788.58 +1.95%
Morgan Stanley Technology 485.58 +3.50%
Transports 4,282.82 +2.90%
Utilities 438.20 +.81%
Put/Call .84 +5.0%
NYSE Arms .68 -36.60%
Volatility(VIX) 13.42 -5.89%
ISE Sentiment 100.0 -4.45%
US Dollar 85.22 -.53%
CRB 338.76 -.02%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 72.91 -.84%
Unleaded Gasoline 199.78 +.37%
Natural Gas 6.86 -.77%
Heating Oil 202.40 +.46%
Gold 634.90 +.32%
Base Metals 226.85 +.76%
Copper 348.00 -.27%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.92% -1.33%

Leading Sectors
Semis +3.72%
Computer Hardware +3.39%
Networking +3.38%

Lagging Sectors
Foods +.53%
Energy +.35%
Hospitals -.12%

Evening Review
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Afternoon Recommendations
Bank of America:
- Rated (EMR), (HON) and (GE) Buy.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- David Einhorn, the hedge fund manager who put pressure on Microsoft’s(MSFT) Steve Ballmer to buy back stock, purchased 8.9 million shares during the second quarter.
- Abercrombie & Fitch(ANF) said second-quarter profit rose 14%, buoyed by sales of shorts and fleece.
- US Treasury 10-year notes rose the most in almost a month after a report showing wholesale price inflation slowed prompted traders to increase bets the Fed is finished raising rates.
- Teck Comino Ltd. said it’s prepared to offer $17.8 billion and put up more cash in a push to win the bidding for Inco Ltd.(N), the Canadian mining company at the center of a three-way takeover contest.
- The US froze the assets of two Syrian military commanders, saying one of them helped support Hezbollah and that both contributed to their government’s interference in Lebanese affairs.
- Applied Materials(AMAT) reported third-quarter profit increased 39% as the company benefited from a surge in demand.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished higher today on gains in my Semi longs, Computer longs, Retail longs, Medical longs and Internet longs. I added to my (GILD) and (PWR) longs and took profits in a trading short in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market was very positive today as the advance/decline line finished substantially higher, almost every sector rose and volume was about average. Measures of investor anxiety were mixed into the close. Overall, today's market performance was very bullish as the major averages and breadth finished near session highs. Several key technical resistance levels gave way today. Unloved growth stocks put in the best showing with many rising 4%-6%. Tech was the best performing sector. Oil finished down about .50 to session lows despite a U.S. dollar decline and more saber-rattling from Iran. I suspect we will build on today's gains tomorrow even if the CPI comes in above estimates.

Stocks Sharply Higher into Final Hour on Falling Inflation Worries, Short-covering and Bargain-hunting

Posted by Gary .....at 3:27 PM

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Semi longs, Computer longs, Medical longs and Retail longs. I covered my (IWM) and (QQQQ) hedges today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is very positive as the advance/decline line is substantially higher, almost every sector is rising and volume is about average. NYSE short interest as a percentage of total shares outstanding hit 2.5% last month. This is an all-time record high. This is also up from a low of 1.0% in Sept. 1999. The negativity bubble further inflates. I suspect today’s move is the confirmation the few remaining bulls have been waiting for. My intermediate-term broad market technical models are improving rapidly. The 10-year yield is near session lows of 4.92% despite today's sharp stock market advance. Even a bad CPI report tomorrow will not likely boost the yield meaningfully above 5%. The ISE Sentiment Index is still a depressed 93, which is a positive. Homebuilders are up 2.4% to session highs despite today's bad housing data. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, bargain-hunting, lower long-term rates and declining energy prices.

Today's Headlines

Posted by Gary .....at 1:36 PM

Bloomberg:
- Israeli and Lebanese politicians are acting together in an effort to defeat Hezbollah, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad said.
- Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said terrorism threatens economic prosperity in South Asia and urged neighboring Pakistan to clamp down on extremists.
- Heathrow Airport plans to cancel 20% of departing flights today, down from about a third yesterday, as schedules slowly return to normal six days after UK police said they foiled a plot to bomb planes en route to the US.
- Home Depot(HD) said second-quarter profit rose 5.3% on higher sales to professional builders.
- Goldman Sachs(GS) extended its lead over securities firms reporting second-quarter equities and fixed-income trading revenue.
- The Chinese yuan fell the most since China ended a peg to the dollar last year, tracking Asian currencies lower as traders bet the central bank is reducing its control over the exchange rate.
- Deere(DE) said third-quarter profit rose 13%, helped by sales of construction products. The company lowered its 06 forecast.
- Wal-Mart Stores(WMT) reported the first decline in profit in more than a decade on costs to sell its German unit.
- Bill Miller bought more shares of computer maker Dell(DELL) and media company Time Warner(TWX) in the second quarter.
- Iranian President Ahmadinejad said his country won’t give in to force over a UN Security Council resolution calling for an end to Iran’s uranium enrichment program by Aug. 31.
- Monsanto(MON) agreed to buy cotton-seek maker Delta & Pine Land(DLP) for $1.5 billion.
- US Treasury 10-year notes rose the most in a month after a report showing wholesale price inflation slowed prompted traders to increase bets the Fed is finished raising interest rates.

Wall Street Journal:
- Sirius Satellite Radio(SIRI) will lose customers as several car-based free-trials end in coming months.
- San Francisco Intl. Airport has started a bomb-detection program that will allow it to screen almost every air cargo for possible explosives.
- Deere & Co.(DE) is offering starting salaries of $55,500 a year and $2,500 signing bonuses to attract increasingly scarce welders.
- Google(GOOG) plans to start today a free service that allows businesses to offer printable coupons using Google Maps.
- Fannie Mae(FNM) and Freddie Mac(FRE), the biggest buyers of US home mortgages, face unprecedented demand for their longer-term callable debt as some investors expect interest rates will remain flat or fall.

NY Times:
- Yahoo!(YHOO) and other companies are building increasingly sophisticated systems that track online consumer behavior as they try to capture more of the $14 billion market.
- US Attorney General Alberto Gonzales yesterday ordered a comparison of US and UK counterterrorism laws.

Lupa Internet:
- Google(GOOG) has purchased the google.cz domain name, easing the company’s entrance to the Czech market.

Core Producer Prices Unexpectedly Fall, NY Manufacturing Slows, Foreign Demand for US Assets Strong

Posted by Gary .....at 11:28 AM

- The Producer Price Index for July rose .1% versus estimates of a .4% gain and a .5% increase in June.
- The PPI Ex Food & Energy for July fell .3% versus estimates of a .2% gain and a .2% increase in June.
- Empire Manufacturing for August fell to 10.3 versus estimates of 15.0 and a reading of 16.6 in July.
- Net Foreign Security Purchases for June rose to $75.1 billion versus estimates of $65.0 billion and $63.6 billion in May.

BOTTOM LINE: Prices paid to US producers increased less than forecast in July, pointing to an easing of inflationary pressures anticipated by the Fed, Bloomberg said. Computer prices dropped 1.8% last month. Food prices fell .3%. Men’s clothing and new vehicle prices also declined last month. I continue to believe inflation fears have peaked for this cycle. During the next significant global downturn, I suspect deflation and overcapacity will be the new worries.

Manufacturing in NY state expanded at a slower pace in August as companies pared inventories, Bloomberg reported. The prices paid component of the index fell to 44.6 versus a reading of 50.5 in July. The outlook component of the index fell to 35.2 versus 45 the prior month. The new orders component rose to 19.1 from 11.3 the prior month. I expect manufacturing to slow to more average levels over the intermediate-term, but continue adding to US growth as inventories are rebuilt.

International investors increased purchases of US financial assets more than expected in June, Bloomberg said. The UK and China increased their holdings of US Treasury securities. I continue to believe we are in the initial stages of a chain reaction of events that will greatly increase the demand for US assets over the intermediate-term.