BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is lower into the final hour on losses in my Semi longs, Internet longs and Computer longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is very negative as the advance/decline line is substantially lower, almost every sector is falling and volume is below average. Copper is giving back some of this morning's gains after the Beijing-based Customs General Administration said that copper-concentrate imports plunged 46% in October from a year earlier and copper purchases fell 0.9%. Moreover, the OECD said it lowered U.S. growth estimates for next year to 2.4% from 3.1%, and for Japan from 2.2% to 2.1%. They boosted European growth estimates to 2.3% from 2.1%. The Case-Schiller US Housing futures are now projecting a 4.6% decline in the average home price over the next six months. This is up from a 5.2% decline projected a couple of months ago. I suspect the OECD should have left its forecast at 3.1% for US growth. An end to auto production cutbacks, lower inflation and a stabilizing housing market will result in average U.S. growth of around 3% next year, in my opinion. Considering today's headline losses, volume is only around average, and very few stocks are down meaningfully on above-average volume. I expect US stocks to trade higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, lower long-term rates and bargain-hunting.
Monday, November 27, 2006
Stocks Sharply Lower into Final Hour on Profit-taking and Higher Energy Prices
Today's Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Christopher Hill, the chief US negotiator to six-nation talks on dismantling North Korea’s nuclear weapons program, arrives in Beijing today to meet with his Chinese counterpart, the US Embassy said.
- The Russian government’s growing intervention in key industries is a “step back” and may lead to slower economic growth, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said.
- Wal-Mart(WMT) plans to set up a venture with Indian billionaire Sunil Mittal, gaining access to the second-most populous nation as the government considers tempering restrictions on overseas ownership.
- The US Supreme Court refused to revive a $10.1 billion award against Altria Group’s(MO) Philip Morris USA, rejecting an appeal from smokers who said they were misled about the health risks of “light” cigarettes.
- Oil is rising above $60 on forecasts that most of the US will be colder than normal next week and a report that Saudi Arabia’s oil minister said OPEC may cut output at a meeting next month.
- Brazil will likely double its output of ethanol to power cars in coming years as producers plant more sugarcane to meeting rising demand for the biofuel.
- Copper declined from morning highs as an import slowdown in China, the world’s largest user of the metal, renewed speculation that supplies may top consumption this year. Copper-concentrate imports plunged 46% in October from a year earlier, and copper purchases dropped .9%, the Chinese Customs General Administration said.
Wall Street Journal:
- US federal courts will require litigants to provide their opponents with electronically stored information under rules that took effect Friday.
- University of Southern California and other US schools of higher education are following the lead set by Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Stanford University in turning research projects into profitable business ventures.
NY Times:
- The New York State Legislature plans to provide a complete, public list of lawmarkers’ government-funded pet projects.
- Xerox Corp.(XRX) is trying to develop erasable paper for its copiers that would allow documents to be recycled an unlimited number of times.
AP:
- Bank of America(BAC) signed a five-year agreement with the Nascar auto-racing series to attract new business for the No. 2 US bank’s ATMs and branches.
NY Post:
- NYC will host a record 7.3 million tourists this year, many of them coming on shopping sprees.
Berlingske Tidende:
- Dong Energy A/S plans to increase the amount of oil it extracts from the Danish part of the North Sea by injecting carbon dioxide into oil extraction pipes, citing Dong CEO Eldrup.
Mlada Fronta Dnes:
- Czech appetite for learning English has led to classes being introduced for toddlers.
Panorama:
- Petroleos de Venezuela SA, South America’s largest oil company, said initial exploration shows that oil reserves in the Gulf of Venezuela might total at least 7 billion barrels.
- Christopher Hill, the chief US negotiator to six-nation talks on dismantling North Korea’s nuclear weapons program, arrives in Beijing today to meet with his Chinese counterpart, the US Embassy said.
- The Russian government’s growing intervention in key industries is a “step back” and may lead to slower economic growth, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said.
- Wal-Mart(WMT) plans to set up a venture with Indian billionaire Sunil Mittal, gaining access to the second-most populous nation as the government considers tempering restrictions on overseas ownership.
- The US Supreme Court refused to revive a $10.1 billion award against Altria Group’s(MO) Philip Morris USA, rejecting an appeal from smokers who said they were misled about the health risks of “light” cigarettes.
- Oil is rising above $60 on forecasts that most of the US will be colder than normal next week and a report that Saudi Arabia’s oil minister said OPEC may cut output at a meeting next month.
- Brazil will likely double its output of ethanol to power cars in coming years as producers plant more sugarcane to meeting rising demand for the biofuel.
- Copper declined from morning highs as an import slowdown in China, the world’s largest user of the metal, renewed speculation that supplies may top consumption this year. Copper-concentrate imports plunged 46% in October from a year earlier, and copper purchases dropped .9%, the Chinese Customs General Administration said.
Wall Street Journal:
- US federal courts will require litigants to provide their opponents with electronically stored information under rules that took effect Friday.
- University of Southern California and other US schools of higher education are following the lead set by Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Stanford University in turning research projects into profitable business ventures.
NY Times:
- The New York State Legislature plans to provide a complete, public list of lawmarkers’ government-funded pet projects.
- Xerox Corp.(XRX) is trying to develop erasable paper for its copiers that would allow documents to be recycled an unlimited number of times.
AP:
- Bank of America(BAC) signed a five-year agreement with the Nascar auto-racing series to attract new business for the No. 2 US bank’s ATMs and branches.
NY Post:
- NYC will host a record 7.3 million tourists this year, many of them coming on shopping sprees.
Berlingske Tidende:
- Dong Energy A/S plans to increase the amount of oil it extracts from the Danish part of the North Sea by injecting carbon dioxide into oil extraction pipes, citing Dong CEO Eldrup.
Mlada Fronta Dnes:
- Czech appetite for learning English has led to classes being introduced for toddlers.
Panorama:
- Petroleos de Venezuela SA, South America’s largest oil company, said initial exploration shows that oil reserves in the Gulf of Venezuela might total at least 7 billion barrels.
Sunday, November 26, 2006
Monday Watch
Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- US retail sales rose a strong 6% to $8.96 billion on Black Friday, the first day of the holiday shopping season, as discounts and lower gasoline costs encouraged consumers to buy more gifts, according to ShopperTrak RCT.
- US shoppers spent 19% more over the Thansgiving weekend than last year, kicking off holiday gift buying with purchases of wide-screen televisions and clothes, the National Retail Federation said. Consumers spent an average $360.15 each over the weekend, up from m$302.81 a year earlier.
- China’s economy is unlikely to slow “sharply” in 2007 because rising consumer spending and industrial production will underpin growth, said Yao Jingyuan, chief economist of the National Bureau of Statistics.
- Palestinians fired rockets at Israel after a cease-fire agreement between Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas went into effect, raising doubts about how long the truce can hold.
- Wal-Mart Stores(WMT) said November sales at US stores open at least a year fell .1%, the worst performance in more than a decade in the first month of the holiday season.
Barron’s:
- US philanthropists like billionaire investor Warren Buffet are developing longstanding relationships with causes they have a personal interest in, rather than donating to a general cause. Buffett has donated to organizations involved in family planning and abortion rights for years.
- Leveraged buyouts have accounted for 34% of merger activity this year, almost double from this time last year, as investment firms target companies stockpiling cash.
NY Times:
- Atlanta, GA has succeeded in luring young, college-educated workers from other US cities such as New York, NY and Washington, DC as the metropolises vie to retain their workforces. The number of 25- to 35-year-olds with college degrees increased 46% in Atlanta from 1990 to 2000, followed by San Francisco, Denver, Portland and Austin, citing a recent study.
- YRC Worldwide(YRCW) is focusing on its business in China as the trucking company follows customers to Asia, citing CEO Zollars.
Forbes:
- Your broker may be making a pretty penny lending your stock to a hedge fund without your knowledge. Here’s how to get a cut of the action.
Washington Post:
- Forty experts on warfare, the Middle East and topics such as Islamic militancy have been asked to devise options for the Iraq Study Group headed by former Secretary of State James Baker III.
San Jose Mercury News:
- US consumers may soon be able to use their mobile phones at retail stores instead of swiping debit or credit cards. Mobile phones may replace most cards found in consumers’ wallets, including gifts cards, reward cards and payment cards.
AP:
- NYSE Group(NYX) CEO John Thain is traveling to China next week to attract more listings from Asia.
- Israel and the Palestinians late yesterday agreed on a cease-fire to end Israel’s five-month military campaign in the Gaza Strip and the firing of rockets by Palestinian militants into the Jewish state.
- Sunni, Shiite and Kurdish leaders in Iraq appealed for an end to sectarian violence in a statement issued on national television.
- Somalia’s Islamist militia, which controls most of the country’s south, deployed forces within nine miles of the border with Ethiopia to the north. The militia seized control of the capital, Mogadishu, in June and has introduced Islamic law in areas it controls. Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Meles Zenawi said on Nov. 23 his country is preparing to defend itself against a holy war declared by the Islamic Courts.
Reuters:
- The US Transportation Security Administration has set a $28 annual fee it will charge airline passengers who join a privately run registry to enable them shorter waits for screening.
Financial Times:
- The National Association for Stock Car Auto Racing, or Nascar, wants to expand to China and western Europe by tying its licensing, sponsorship and media expertise with local partners, citing Chairman Brian France.
- Merck & Co.(MRK) plans to advertise its drugs more on the Internet and less on television, citing an interview with Peter Loescher, president of the Global Human Health unit.
- Kazakhstan’s Kashagan oil field, one of the world’s five biggest, will produce 25% more oil than forecast once it reaches full production.
- Cisco Systems(CSCO) plans a joint venture with Russia’s OAO Concern Sitronics, citing Paul Mountford, Cisco’s president of emerging markets.
De Telegraaf:
- Air France-KLM is in a “comfortable position” as consolidation in the US airline industry will enter a crucial phase in 2007, citing vice-chairman Leo van Wijk.
El Economista:
- Juan Miguel Villar Mir, Chairman of Obrascon Huarte Lain SA, may invest in Texas and will focus on construction and infrastructure companies.
Nihon Keizai:
- Nissan Motor(NSANY) will start selling all-electric cars by 2009. The automaker will develop its own lithium-ion battery to power the lightweight vehicles.
- Net purchases of Japanese stock and bond purchases by foreign investors may fall this year for the first time in four years.
Xinhua News Agency:
- China will have 459 million mobile phone users by year’s end, citing the Ministry of Information Industry.
AFP:
- Thousands of Islamists rallied in Pakistan’s economic center Karachi protesting changes to the country’s 27-year-old rape law. Pakistan’s parliament voted earlier this month to scrap provisions in the law that oblige women alleging rape to produce four male witnesses or face possible prosecution for adultery.
Al-Hayat:
- Saudi Arabia’s Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said OPEC may agree to cut oil production for a second time in the third quarter at a meeting in Nigeria next month.
- Foreign direct investment, know as FDI, has reached $37 billion so far this year in Arab states compared with $7 billion for all of last year. The United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Kuwait, Morocco and Lebanon have received 73% of the total investment coming into the region.
Milliyet:
- Turkiye Petrolleri A.O., Turkey’s state oil company, has discovered 20 new oil wells near the border with Syria and will start pumping oil from half of them by mid-December.
Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Made positive comments on (AVP) and (ASMI).
- Made negative comments on (VRTX).
Citigroup:
- Reiterated Buy on (MAR), raised target to $55.
- Reiterated Buy on (WMB), raised target to $35.
- Reiterated Buy on (HOLX), target $55.
- Rated (SPNS) Buy, target $21.
- We continue to believe Analog semi fundamentals are poised for a favorable 1H07 inflection, and with that another leg up in select stocks. Our top picks are (MRVL), (ISIL) and (FCS).
- Video game sales were strong over the holiday weekend, helped by promotions and despite limited PS3/Wii availability. Front line title pricing generally held, a good sign of publisher/retailer demand, and discounts tended to be bundled and of limited duration. Out estimates for game publishers/retailers are unchanged, but we see the greatest opportunity for upside at Activision, whose games were cited as next gen favorites, received good shelf space and were used in promotions.
Night Trading
Asian indices are -.25% to +.50% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.05%
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.08%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Conference Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (DCI)/.42
Upcoming Splits
- (AME) 3-for-2
Economic Releases
- None of note
Bloomberg:
- US retail sales rose a strong 6% to $8.96 billion on Black Friday, the first day of the holiday shopping season, as discounts and lower gasoline costs encouraged consumers to buy more gifts, according to ShopperTrak RCT.
- US shoppers spent 19% more over the Thansgiving weekend than last year, kicking off holiday gift buying with purchases of wide-screen televisions and clothes, the National Retail Federation said. Consumers spent an average $360.15 each over the weekend, up from m$302.81 a year earlier.
- China’s economy is unlikely to slow “sharply” in 2007 because rising consumer spending and industrial production will underpin growth, said Yao Jingyuan, chief economist of the National Bureau of Statistics.
- Palestinians fired rockets at Israel after a cease-fire agreement between Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas went into effect, raising doubts about how long the truce can hold.
- Wal-Mart Stores(WMT) said November sales at US stores open at least a year fell .1%, the worst performance in more than a decade in the first month of the holiday season.
Barron’s:
- US philanthropists like billionaire investor Warren Buffet are developing longstanding relationships with causes they have a personal interest in, rather than donating to a general cause. Buffett has donated to organizations involved in family planning and abortion rights for years.
- Leveraged buyouts have accounted for 34% of merger activity this year, almost double from this time last year, as investment firms target companies stockpiling cash.
NY Times:
- Atlanta, GA has succeeded in luring young, college-educated workers from other US cities such as New York, NY and Washington, DC as the metropolises vie to retain their workforces. The number of 25- to 35-year-olds with college degrees increased 46% in Atlanta from 1990 to 2000, followed by San Francisco, Denver, Portland and Austin, citing a recent study.
- YRC Worldwide(YRCW) is focusing on its business in China as the trucking company follows customers to Asia, citing CEO Zollars.
Forbes:
- Your broker may be making a pretty penny lending your stock to a hedge fund without your knowledge. Here’s how to get a cut of the action.
Washington Post:
- Forty experts on warfare, the Middle East and topics such as Islamic militancy have been asked to devise options for the Iraq Study Group headed by former Secretary of State James Baker III.
San Jose Mercury News:
- US consumers may soon be able to use their mobile phones at retail stores instead of swiping debit or credit cards. Mobile phones may replace most cards found in consumers’ wallets, including gifts cards, reward cards and payment cards.
AP:
- NYSE Group(NYX) CEO John Thain is traveling to China next week to attract more listings from Asia.
- Israel and the Palestinians late yesterday agreed on a cease-fire to end Israel’s five-month military campaign in the Gaza Strip and the firing of rockets by Palestinian militants into the Jewish state.
- Sunni, Shiite and Kurdish leaders in Iraq appealed for an end to sectarian violence in a statement issued on national television.
- Somalia’s Islamist militia, which controls most of the country’s south, deployed forces within nine miles of the border with Ethiopia to the north. The militia seized control of the capital, Mogadishu, in June and has introduced Islamic law in areas it controls. Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Meles Zenawi said on Nov. 23 his country is preparing to defend itself against a holy war declared by the Islamic Courts.
Reuters:
- The US Transportation Security Administration has set a $28 annual fee it will charge airline passengers who join a privately run registry to enable them shorter waits for screening.
Financial Times:
- The National Association for Stock Car Auto Racing, or Nascar, wants to expand to China and western Europe by tying its licensing, sponsorship and media expertise with local partners, citing Chairman Brian France.
- Merck & Co.(MRK) plans to advertise its drugs more on the Internet and less on television, citing an interview with Peter Loescher, president of the Global Human Health unit.
- Kazakhstan’s Kashagan oil field, one of the world’s five biggest, will produce 25% more oil than forecast once it reaches full production.
- Cisco Systems(CSCO) plans a joint venture with Russia’s OAO Concern Sitronics, citing Paul Mountford, Cisco’s president of emerging markets.
De Telegraaf:
- Air France-KLM is in a “comfortable position” as consolidation in the US airline industry will enter a crucial phase in 2007, citing vice-chairman Leo van Wijk.
El Economista:
- Juan Miguel Villar Mir, Chairman of Obrascon Huarte Lain SA, may invest in Texas and will focus on construction and infrastructure companies.
Nihon Keizai:
- Nissan Motor(NSANY) will start selling all-electric cars by 2009. The automaker will develop its own lithium-ion battery to power the lightweight vehicles.
- Net purchases of Japanese stock and bond purchases by foreign investors may fall this year for the first time in four years.
Xinhua News Agency:
- China will have 459 million mobile phone users by year’s end, citing the Ministry of Information Industry.
AFP:
- Thousands of Islamists rallied in Pakistan’s economic center Karachi protesting changes to the country’s 27-year-old rape law. Pakistan’s parliament voted earlier this month to scrap provisions in the law that oblige women alleging rape to produce four male witnesses or face possible prosecution for adultery.
Al-Hayat:
- Saudi Arabia’s Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said OPEC may agree to cut oil production for a second time in the third quarter at a meeting in Nigeria next month.
- Foreign direct investment, know as FDI, has reached $37 billion so far this year in Arab states compared with $7 billion for all of last year. The United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Kuwait, Morocco and Lebanon have received 73% of the total investment coming into the region.
Milliyet:
- Turkiye Petrolleri A.O., Turkey’s state oil company, has discovered 20 new oil wells near the border with Syria and will start pumping oil from half of them by mid-December.
Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Made positive comments on (AVP) and (ASMI).
- Made negative comments on (VRTX).
Citigroup:
- Reiterated Buy on (MAR), raised target to $55.
- Reiterated Buy on (WMB), raised target to $35.
- Reiterated Buy on (HOLX), target $55.
- Rated (SPNS) Buy, target $21.
- We continue to believe Analog semi fundamentals are poised for a favorable 1H07 inflection, and with that another leg up in select stocks. Our top picks are (MRVL), (ISIL) and (FCS).
- Video game sales were strong over the holiday weekend, helped by promotions and despite limited PS3/Wii availability. Front line title pricing generally held, a good sign of publisher/retailer demand, and discounts tended to be bundled and of limited duration. Out estimates for game publishers/retailers are unchanged, but we see the greatest opportunity for upside at Activision, whose games were cited as next gen favorites, received good shelf space and were used in promotions.
Night Trading
Asian indices are -.25% to +.50% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.05%
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.08%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Conference Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (DCI)/.42
Upcoming Splits
- (AME) 3-for-2
Economic Releases
- None of note
BOTTOM LINE: Asian Indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.
Weekly Outlook
Click here for The Week Ahead by Reuters
There are a number of economic reports of note and some significant corporate earnings reports scheduled for release this week.
Economic reports for the week include:
Mon. - None of note
Tues. - Durable Goods Orders, Consumer Confidence, Existing Home Sales, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
Wed. - 3Q GDP, 3Q GDP Price Index, 3Q Personal Consumption, 3Q Core PCE, New Home Sales, Fed’s Beige Book
Thur. - Personal Income, Personal Spending, PCE Deflator, Initial Jobless Claims, Chicago Purchasing Manager, House Price Index
Fri. - Construction Spending, ISM Manufacturing, ISM Prices Paid, Total Vehicle Sales
Some of the more noteworthy companies that release quarterly earnings this week are:
Mon. - Donaldson Co.(DCI)
Tues. - Chico’s FAS(CHS), Dollar General(DG), Dress Barn(DBRN), Jackson Hewitt(JTX)
Wed. - Aeropostale Inc.(ARO), BEA Systems(BEAS), JLG Industries(JLG), Marvell Tech(MRVL), Synopsys(SNPS), Telephone & Data(TDS), Tiffany & Co.(TIF)
Thur. - Brown-Forman(BF/A), Del Monte Foods(DLM), H&R Block(HRB), HJ Heinz(HNZ), Omnivision Tech(OVTI)
Fri. - Atwood Oceanics(ATW), Finisar Corp.(FNSR), j2 Global(JCOM), Multimedia Games(MGAM), Quanex Corp.(NX), Vimpel-Communications(VIP)
Other events that have market-moving potential this week include:
Mon. - None of note
Tue. - CSFB Tech Conference, JP Morgan Consumer & Retail Conference, Lazard Life Sciences Conference, CIBC Mid/Small-cap Best Ideas Conference, Goldman Sachs Shipping Conference, Merrill Lynch Health Services Conference
Wed. - CIBC Mid/Small-cap Best Ideas Conference, Lazard Life Sciences Conference, Piper Jaffray Health Care Conference, Bear Stearns Commodities & Capital Goods Conference, CSFB Tech Conference, JPMorgan Consumer & Retail Conference, Merrill Lynch Health Services Conference
Thur. - Bear Stearns Commodities & Capital Goods Conference, CSFB Tech Conference, Piper Jaffray Health Care Conference, monthly retail same-store-sales releases
Fri. - Piper Jaffray Health Care Conference, CSFB Tech Conference
There are a number of economic reports of note and some significant corporate earnings reports scheduled for release this week.
Economic reports for the week include:
Mon. - None of note
Tues. - Durable Goods Orders, Consumer Confidence, Existing Home Sales, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
Wed. - 3Q GDP, 3Q GDP Price Index, 3Q Personal Consumption, 3Q Core PCE, New Home Sales, Fed’s Beige Book
Thur. - Personal Income, Personal Spending, PCE Deflator, Initial Jobless Claims, Chicago Purchasing Manager, House Price Index
Fri. - Construction Spending, ISM Manufacturing, ISM Prices Paid, Total Vehicle Sales
Some of the more noteworthy companies that release quarterly earnings this week are:
Mon. - Donaldson Co.(DCI)
Tues. - Chico’s FAS(CHS), Dollar General(DG), Dress Barn(DBRN), Jackson Hewitt(JTX)
Wed. - Aeropostale Inc.(ARO), BEA Systems(BEAS), JLG Industries(JLG), Marvell Tech(MRVL), Synopsys(SNPS), Telephone & Data(TDS), Tiffany & Co.(TIF)
Thur. - Brown-Forman(BF/A), Del Monte Foods(DLM), H&R Block(HRB), HJ Heinz(HNZ), Omnivision Tech(OVTI)
Fri. - Atwood Oceanics(ATW), Finisar Corp.(FNSR), j2 Global(JCOM), Multimedia Games(MGAM), Quanex Corp.(NX), Vimpel-Communications(VIP)
Other events that have market-moving potential this week include:
Mon. - None of note
Tue. - CSFB Tech Conference, JP Morgan Consumer & Retail Conference, Lazard Life Sciences Conference, CIBC Mid/Small-cap Best Ideas Conference, Goldman Sachs Shipping Conference, Merrill Lynch Health Services Conference
Wed. - CIBC Mid/Small-cap Best Ideas Conference, Lazard Life Sciences Conference, Piper Jaffray Health Care Conference, Bear Stearns Commodities & Capital Goods Conference, CSFB Tech Conference, JPMorgan Consumer & Retail Conference, Merrill Lynch Health Services Conference
Thur. - Bear Stearns Commodities & Capital Goods Conference, CSFB Tech Conference, Piper Jaffray Health Care Conference, monthly retail same-store-sales releases
Fri. - Piper Jaffray Health Care Conference, CSFB Tech Conference
BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly higher on better-than-expected economic data, rising consumer spending optimism, lower energy prices, seasonal strength, strong corporate profits, investment manager performance anxiety and short-covering. My trading indicators are still giving bullish signals and the Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.
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