Stocks Finish at Session Highs on Heavy Volume, Boosted by Commodity, Gaming, REIT, Airline, Financial, Construction and Technology Shares

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Stocks Reversing Sharply Higher on Heavy Volume into Final Hour on Short-Covering, Bargain Hunting, Less Forced Selling

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Biotech longs, Computer longs and Internet longs. I covered all of my (IWM)/(QQQQ) hedges and some of my (EEM) short today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is bullish as the advance/decline line is higher, almost every sector is gaining and volume is heavy. Investor anxiety is elevated. Today’s overall market action is bullish. The VIX is falling 4.95% and is very elevated at 63.17. The ISE Sentiment Index is low at 105.0 and the total put/call is high at 1.13. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running around average most of the day, hitting 1.43 at its intraday peak, and is currently .52. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is falling 2.31% today to 107.67 basis points. This index is up from a low of 52.66 on May 5^th, but down from 157.81 on Sept. 16^th. The North American Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index is down 1.2% to 199.87 basis points. The TED spread is falling 1.73% to 196 basis points. The TED spread is now down 268 basis points in just over four weeks. The 2-year swap spread is rising 1.7% to 112.25 basis points. The Libor-OIS spread is falling 1.5% to 162 basis points. The 10-year TIPS spread, a good gauge of inflation expectations, is down 5 basis points to .84%, which is down 178 basis points in just over four months and at the lowest level since January 1999. It appears as though we had a successful retest of the lows, with volume surging on the sharp reversal higher. The (XLF) is 4.5% higher on heavy volume, as well. I expect this market rally to have meaningful legs. With all the bad news today, market gains are even more significant. As well, the US dollar also looks poised for some profit-taking over the coming weeks which could help many stocks that are negatively impacted by its recent sharp rise. Nikkei futures indicate an +340 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate an +73 open in Germany tomorrow. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, bargain-hunting, less financial sector pessimism, less forced selling and seasonal strength.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- President George W. Bush today urged leaders of the world's biggest economies not to abandon free- market capitalism as they seek an escape from the financial crisis, calling it the ``best system'' for delivering growth. In a speech at the Manhattan Institute in New York before weekend talks among leaders from the Group of 20 nations, Bush said policy makers should resist the urge to meddle too much in markets as they seek to reverse the financial and economic turmoil now engulfing the world. ``History has shown that the greater threat to economic prosperity is not too little government involvement in the market, but too much,'' Bush said. ``Our aim should not be more government, it should be smarter government.''

- European Central Bank council member Ewald Nowotny said, “Part of the business model of hedge funds is that they are unregulated. They perhaps have to change their business model. It has perhaps been too costly.” He also said that hedge fund regulation may be discussed at the G-20 meeting in Washington.

- Fortress Investment Group LLC's(FIG) hedge-fund clients have asked to pull more than $4.5 billion, or a quarter of their money, over the next few months as the company reported its first quarterly loss since going public. The redemption requests poured in as Fortress's Drawbridge Global Macro funds lost 13.5 percent this year through Sept. 30 and its Special Opportunities funds declined as much as 7.2 percent, the New York-based company said today in a statement.

- Derivatives indicating the future cost of shipping oil plunged 17% on signs that slower economic growth is sapping demand for the fuel. January-to-March forward freight agreements, or FFAs, fell to $31,000 a day from $37,150 a day yesterday, Justin King, head of tanker derivatives at Tradition Financial Services, said in an e-mail at 4:15 pm London time. The contracts are bets on the quarter’s average daily rental cost for supertankers shipping Saudi Arabian crude oil to Japan, a global benchmark. The IEA today lowered its forecast for demand by the most in 12 years today.

- Oil traders made their biggest bet yet that OPEC will fail to prevent crude prices from plunging below $30 a barrel. Trades in crude-oil options contracts that would allow the holder to sell oil for February delivery at $30 a barrel reached 1,406 on the New York Mercantile Exchange today, making the contract day’s second-most active, exchange data show.

- George Soros and Philip Falcone, in a rare appearance by hedge-fund managers before Congress, defended their industry's practices and profits while splitting over whether the U.S. should impose stricter regulations.

- General Electric Co.(GE), buffeted by the global credit crunch, repeated plans to keep its dividend unchanged next year after shares dropped below $15 for the first time since 1996.

Wall Street Journal:

- Hedge Funds on the Hill: Live-Blogging the Hearings.

- New York state officials have begun examining middlemen in the market for credit-default swaps, as they comb for potential evidence of manipulation in the largely unregulated world of CDS trading. The latest focus of regulators' inquiry are firms known as interdealer brokers, or the generally small, independent shops that serve as matchmakers for Wall Street firms trading in credit-default swaps, bonds and other instruments. Interdealer brokers, which typically promise to keep banks' positions secret from rivals, are at the nexus of the Wall Street information flow, with unique insight into the trading activities of their clients.

- Hedge fund Quadrangle Equity Investors is planning to wind down amid weak performance and investor redemptions, in a setback for Steven Rattner's private investment firm. The fund is operated by Quadrangle Group LLC, the New York-based firm run by Mr. Rattner, the former deputy chairman of Lazard. Quadrangle launched the hedge fund in 2006, managing about $500 million at its peak.

- The board of Citigroup Inc.(C) is growing increasingly dissatisfied with the financial giant's performance, and some directors are considering replacing Sir Win Bischoff as chairman, according to people familiar with the matter. One leading candidate is Richard Parsons, Time Warner Inc.'s chairman and a member of Citigroup's board. Mr. Parsons ran a New York thrift in the early 1990s and is one of the few Citigroup directors with experience in financial services. He also is part of President-elect Barack Obama's transition economic-advisory board.

- Brazil's massive Jupiter find contains a higher oil-to-gas ratio than originally expected, Galp Energia SGPS SA (GALP.LB) Chief Executive Manuel Ferreira de Oliveira said in a conference call.

FINAlternatives:

- Hedge funds’ monthly ‘Dear Investor’ letters are quickly becoming case studies in self-pity, self-flagellation and flourishes of apology. The latest missive circulating in cyberspace comes from Maverick Capital, and it’s a dandy. The Maverick Levered Fund finished the third quarter down 40.6% (down 34.5% year-to-date) followed by the Neutral Levered Fund’s 27.5% loss last quarter (down 3.3% YTD). The firm’s other hedge fund losses include Maverick Fund Class C 5 yr. (down 22.4% in the quarter, down 16.9% YTD) and Maverick Neutral (14.4% in the quarter, flat YTD).

Europa:

- The European Commission has proposed today a wide-ranging energy package which gives a new boost to energy security in Europe, supporting the 20-20-20 climate change proposals which should be agreed by December. The first priority identified in the second Strategic Review is to adopt and rapidly implement the measures to reach European Council energy policy targets for Europe aiming at a 20% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, a 20% share for renewables in final energy consumption and a 20% saving in future energy demand by 2020.

recast to "

Business Day:

- Citigroup Inc.(C) Chairman Win Bischoff doesn’t expect any more big banks to fail as regulators around the world step in to support lenders, citing Bischoff.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
Small-cap Growth (-3.72%)

Sector Underperformers:
HMOs (-9.74%), Homebuilders (-7.43%) and Software (-4.77%)

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
BAC, GE, ZOLL, SYNA, SIVB, TTEK, MPWR, INTC, SINA, TOD, OPY and AMG

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
1) URBN 2) SYK 3) SCHW 4) AEO 5) AMAG

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
Large-cap Value (+1.51%)

Sector Outperformers:
Airlines (+4.88%), Utilities (+2.51%) and Steel (+2.23%)

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
AMAG, BT, SI, GMCR, FADV, NTAP, WABC, PETS, FSLR, WPPGY, NICE, LLTC, ECL, CPL, CHA, DCO, SAN, NJR and AMB

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
1) MYL 2) PRU 3) AMT 4) ELN 5) MFE

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