BETWEEN THE HEDGES

Sunday, November 30, 2008

Weekly Outlook

Posted by Gary .....at 10:02 AM

Click here for a weekly market preview by MarketWatch.

Click here for stocks in focus for Monday by MarketWatch.

There are some economic reports of note and several significant corporate earnings reports scheduled for release this week.

Economic reports for the week include:

Mon. – ISM Manufacturing, ISM Prices Paid, Construction Spending

Tues. – Weekly retail sales reports, Total Vehicle Sales

Wed. – Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, weekly EIA Energy Inventory report, Challenger Job Cuts, ADP Employment report, Final 3Q Non-farm Productivity, Final 3Q Unit Labor Costs, ISM Non-Manufacturing, Fed’s Beige Book

Thur. – Initial Jobless Claims, Factory Orders, ICSC Chain Store Sales

Fri. – Change in Non-farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings, Consumer Credit

Some of the more noteworthy companies that release quarterly earnings this week are:

Mon. – Pilgrim’s Pride Corp.(PPC)

Tues. – Beazer Homes(BZH), Sears Holdings(SHLD), Omnivision Technologies(OVTI), Staples Inc.(SPLS)

Wed. – Synopsys(SNPS), Copart Inc.(CPRT), Jo-Ann Stores(JAS), Aeropostale(ARO), Del Monte Foods(DLM)

Thur. – Novell Inc.(NOVL), Williams-Sonoma(WSM), Toll Brothers(TOL), Guess ? Inc.(GES)

Fri. – Brown-Forman(BF/B), Korn/Ferry(KFY), Big Lots(BIG)

Other events that have market-moving potential this week include:

Mon. – The Fed’s Bernanke speaking, Fed’s Fisher speaking, (VTAL) analyst meeting

Tue. – The Fed’s Plosser speaking, (GE) Financial Services Investor Meeting, (UNH) Investor Conference, (LXRX) R&D Day, Piper Jaffray Healthcare Conference, CSFB Airline Conference, Merrill Lynch Energy Conference, CSFB Tech Conference

Wed. – The Feds’ Lacker speaking, Fed’s Kroszner speaking, (EGN) Investor Meeting, (XEL) Investor Meeting, (HI) Analyst Day, Deutsche Bank Tech Conference, Merrill Lynch Energy Conference, Citi Chemicals Conference, FBR Investor Conference, CSFB Tech Conference

Thur. – (NUS) Investor Day, (SBUX) Analyst Conference, (AMSC) Analyst Day, (JTX) Analysts’ Day, (PRU) Investor Day, (ATHN) Investor Summit, (PMI) Investor Conference, (NCR) Analyst Meeting, (SWY) Investor Conference, (OSIP) Analyst Day, JPMorgan Small-Mid Cap Conference, Bank of America Software Services Mini Conference, CSFB Tech Conference

Fri. – JPMorgan Small-Mid Cap Conference

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as seasonal strength, diminishing financial sector pessimism, lower mortgage rates and less forced selling offsets global growth worries, more shorting and profit-taking. My trading indicators are giving mostly bullish signals and the Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Saturday, November 29, 2008

Market Week in Review

Posted by Gary .....at 12:48 AM

S&P 500 896.24 +19.11%*

Click here for the Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Friday, November 28, 2008

Weekly Scoreboard*

Posted by Gary .....at 9:26 PM

Indices
S&P 500 896.24 +19.11%
DJIA 8,829.04 +16.9%
NASDAQ 1,535.57 +16.67%
Russell 2000 473.14 +22.80%
Wilshire 5000 8,925.96 +19.80%
Russell 1000 Growth 365.34 +17.16%
Russell 1000 Value 482.06 +21.89%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 545.76 +12.46%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 470.43 +24.0%
Morgan Stanley Technology 331.51 +15.42%
Transports 3,512.20 +17.50%
Utilities 382.24 +13.85%
MSCI Emerging Markets 22.84 +19.58%

Sentiment/Internals
NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 15,952 +92.49%
Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -243 +94.10%
Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 32.0 +113.3%
CFTC Oil Large Speculative Longs 184,453 unch.
Total Put/Call 1.45 +9.02%
OEX Put/Call 2.11 +106.86%
ISE Sentiment 137.0 +26.85%
NYSE Arms 1.00 -17.35%
Volatility(VIX) 55.28 -31.64%
G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 19.69 -3.43%
Smart Money Flow Index 6,736.31 +11.71%
AAII % Bulls 31.25 +28.23%
AAII % Bears 44.89 -21.44%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 54.43 +11.83%
Reformulated Gasoline 120.96 +17.89%
Natural Gas 6.51 +2.39%
Heating Oil 172.71 +3.02%
Gold 819.00 +9.74%
Base Metals 119.76 -.76%
Copper 164.95 +6.90%
Agriculture 285.65 +3.14%

Economy
10-year US Treasury Yield 2.92% -27 basis points
10-year TIPS Spread .36% +23 basis points
TED Spread 2.18 +3 basis points
N. Amer. Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 238.80 -14.48%
Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 727.54 -14.79%
Citi US Economic Surprise Index -117.60 -3.52%
Fed Fund Futures imply 68.0% chance of 50 basis point cut, 32.0% chance of 75 basis point cut on 12/16
Iraqi 2028 Govt Bonds 45.0 -4.96%
4-Wk MA of Jobless Claims 518,00 +2.2%
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 5.97% -7 basis points
Weekly Mortgage Applications 404,400 +1.46%
Weekly Retail Sales -1.10%
Nationwide Gas $1.84/gallon -.15/gallon
US Heating Demand Next 7 Days 2.0% below normal
ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index 106.80 -1.11%
US Dollar Index 86.52 -1.65%
Baltic Dry Index 715.0 -14.47%
CRB Index 242.20 +5.14%