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Indices
S&P 500 1,025.21 -1.84%
DJIA 9,487.67 -1.84%
NASDAQ 2,048.11 -2.05%
Russell 2000 580.20 -3.13%
Wilshire 5000 10,469.55 -1.95%
Russell 1000 Growth 452.91 -1.35%
Russell 1000 Value 527.16 -2.41%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 633.47 +.25%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 701.55 -2.52%
Morgan Stanley Technology 515.78 -1.61%
Transports 3,692.73 -3.04%
Utilities 367.25 -2.59%
MSCI Emerging Markets 38.00 -.47%
Lyxor L/S Equity Long Bias Index 951.37 +.14%
Lyxor L/S Equity Variable Bias Index 850.69 -.60%
Lyxor L/S Equity Short Bias Index 1,047.08 +.63%
Sentiment/Internals
NYSE Cumulative A/D Line +57,181 -2.18%
Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index +183 +7.02%
Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 19.0 +18.75%
CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position +42,142 -32.27%
CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,178,475 +4.77%
Total Put/Call 1.10 +13.40%
OEX Put/Call 1.04 -18.11%
ISE Sentiment 126.0 +24.75%
NYSE Arms 1.05 -39.30%
Volatility(VIX) 28.68 +11.99%
G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 12.62 -.16%
Smart Money Flow Index 9,226.90 -1.48%
Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $3.429 Trillion -1.5%
AAII % Bulls 44.0 +12.56%
AAII % Bears 35.0 -21.44%
Futures Spot Prices
CRB Index 252.87 +.95%
Crude Oil 69.65 +5.54%
Reformulated Gasoline 173.59 +6.19%
Natural Gas 4.72 -4.55%
Heating Oil 178.85 +4.62%
Gold 1,003.70 +1.17%
Bloomberg Base Metals 172.41 -1.11%
Copper 268.30 -2.03%
US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 258.33 USD/Ton -.64%
China Hot Rolled Domestic Steel Sheet 3,424 Yuan/Ton -3.63%
S&P GSCI Agriculture 296.97 -.91%
Economy
ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index 127.10 -.63%
Citi US Economic Surprise Index +30.0 -40.48%
Fed Fund Futures imply 64.9% chance of no change, 35.1% chance of 25 basis point cut on 11/04
US Dollar Index 77.04 +.29%
Yield Curve 235.0 +3 basis points
10-year US Treasury Yield 3.22% -10 basis points
Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet $2.123 Trillion -.83%
U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 21.0 unch.
10-year TIPS Spread 1.71% -5 basis points
TED Spread 20.0 +1 basis point
N. Amer. Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 109.79 +12.03%
Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 76.82 +15.25%
Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 274.89 -.25%
CMBS Super Senior AAA 10-year Treasury Spread 494.0 unch.
M1 Money Supply $1.640 Trillion -1.86%
Business Loans 688.20 -1.42%
4-Wk MA of Jobless Claims 548,000 -1.1%
Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 4.60% unch.
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 4.94% -10 basis points
Weekly Mortgage Applications 649,600 -2.83%
ABC Consumer Confidence -46 unch.
Weekly Retail Sales -2.30% unch.
Nationwide Gas $2.47/gallon -.06/gallon
US Cooling Demand Next 7 Days 12.0% below normal
Baltic Dry Index 2,284 +5.59%
Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to US Gulf Coast) 25.0 -9.09%
Rail Freight Carloads 205,627 +.24%
Iraqi 2028 Govt Bonds 75.27 -.04%
Best Performing Style
Large-Cap Growth -1.35%
Worst Performing Style
Small-Cap Value -3.41%
Leading Sectors
I-Banks +1.07%
Education +.75%
Insurance -.18%
Retail -.29%
Papers -.28%
Lagging Sectors
Homebuilders -4.48%
Semis -4.64%
Alt Energy -4.73%
Gaming -4.82%
Airlines -7.80%
Evening Review
BNO Breaking Global News of Note
Yahoo Most Popular Biz Stories
Bloomberg:
- Steve Leuthold, whose Leuthold Core Investment Fund has beaten 95 percent of its rivals in the past five years, said the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will jump to 1,350 next year as the economy recovers from the worst contraction since the Great Depression. The 71-year-old investor, who turned bullish after his Grizzly Short Fund returned 74 percent because of the equity market rout in 2008, predicts that the stock index will end 2009 at 1,200. He joins Byron Wien, hired as a strategist by Blackstone Group LP in August, in predicting that the S&P 500 will complete a 77 percent surge from its March low on Dec. 31. “There’s pretty good momentum, and the market psychology is right,” Leuthold, who manages $4 billion, said in a telephone interview from Minneapolis yesterday. “The markets turned up before the economy did. Now, the economy is improving. It might be a little better than most think. It ain’t wonderful, but it’s a lot better than it was.” Leuthold said that 25 percent of his equity fund is in technology stocks, while 12 percent is in small- and mid-sized biotechnology companies. “We think there’s going to be a lot more activity in terms of acquisitions,” he said. “The large tech companies are loaded with cash and willing to diversify in other areas.”
- The cost to protect corporate bonds in the US from default fell for the first time in four days, according to traders of credit default swaps. Credit swaps on the Markit CDX North America Investment-Grade Index fell 3 basis points to a mid-price of 107 basis points as of 12:43 am in NY, according to Phoenix Partners Group. That’s the biggest decline since Sept. 21, according to CMA DataVision.
- Crude oil dropped, following global equity markets, after a report showed the U.S. jobless rate increased to a 26-year high in September. Russia increased oil output 1.7 percent to a post-Soviet high in September from a year earlier after OAO Rosneft brought a new field on line in August. Total production rose to 10.01 million barrels a day from 9.84 million barrels a day in September last year, the Energy Ministry’s CDU-TEK unit said in an e-mailed statement today.
- The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, source of 40 percent of the world’s oil, has slipped further away from self-imposed production limits amid rising crude prices, Exxon Mobil Corp. Chief Executive Officer Rex Tillerson said. “At one point they had about 82 percent compliance, which is very good for OPEC,” said Tillerson, who oversees the world’s largest portfolio of oil refineries. “It’s running about 65 percent now. When the price of oil got back above $70, some people can’t help themselves.”
- Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc.(HOT) Chief Executive Officer Frits van Paasschen said increased demand for hotel rooms in New York City may signal the U.S. is beginning to emerge from the recession. “New York is a good leading indicator because it’s such a crossroad of so many places,” Van Paasschen said in an interview in New York yesterday.
- Goldman Sachs Group Inc.(GS) must be cautious about handing out record bonuses while the banking industry is still under distress or risk spurring an outcry from Congress, U.S. Senator Mark Warner said. “I do hope that Goldman Sachs will be a little more sensitive to the optics of their actions,” Warner, a member of the Senate Banking Committee, said today in an interview on Bloomberg Television’s “Political Capital with Al Hunt,” to be broadcast today. “They ought to be sensitive to the fact that the whole industry is still under a great deal of scrutiny,” said Warner, a Virginia Democrat. “You can end up seeing a reaction on the Hill if there’s not some of that sensitivity.” Goldman Sachs, the biggest U.S. securities firm before converting to a bank holding company in September 2008, set aside $11.4 billion to pay compensation in the first six months of this year after reporting record earnings.
Wall Street Journal:
- Job losses moderated in August, but the unemployment rate ticked up 0.1 percentage point to 9.8%, the highest level since June 1983. But another more comprehensive gauge of unemployment ticked up even more. The government’s broader measure, known as the “U-6″ for its data classification, hit 17% in September, 0.2 percentage points higher than August. The comprehensive measure of labor underutilization accounts for people who have stopped looking for work or who can’t find full-time jobs. The U-6 figure is the highest since the Labor Department started this particular data series in 1994. But, similar to the headline unemployment rate, it likely isn’t as bad as it was in the 1980s.
- U.S. oil major Chevron Corp. (CVX) launched its first offshore production in Brazil earlier this year, betting that the company's entry into one of the world's most-promising oil patches will become a springboard to a larger role, and a hydrocarbons bounty for future decades. In June, Chevron pumped the first oil from the Frade field, situated 120 kilometers off the coast of Brazil's Espirito Santo state. Chevron joined Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA.LN) and Devon Energy (DVN) in the select group of foreign oil majors producing crude in Brazil.
- A CBS News producer has been indicted in an alleged extortion plot against David Letterman, who was forced to acknowledge sexual relationships with female staffers on his show after the man tried to blackmail him for $2 million, the Manhattan district attorney said Friday. Robert J. "Joe" Halderman, a producer for the true-crime show "48 Hours," was arrested Thursday and indicted on one count of attempted first-degree grand larceny, punishable from five to 15 years upon conviction, District Attorney Robert Morgenthau said.
- White House officials and Democratic leaders in Congress are negotiating an extension of key elements of the stimulus bill in light of the continuing deterioration of the job market, an administration official said Friday.
CNBC:
- Wall Street is modestly hiring again—but not always where you might think. Because large banks accounted for most of the 260,000 announced layoffs within the financial sector in 2008, job seekers have shifted their focus to smaller firms that weren't hit as badly, experts say. And sometimes, they're starting their own boutique firms. Hedge funds also have bounced back significantly in 2009, so they've increased staffing. And even among investment banks that are hiring, the positions are more in areas like asset and wealth management than the traditional M&A and IPO positions—though those too are picking up.
Washington Post:
- The Obama administration has given Congress a draft of a proposed shield law that toughens its position on controversial national security sections, according to administration sources. The proposed law is designed to protect journalists from having to disclose their confidential sources. Although some media sources called the draft a step backward that might kill the legislation, a White House official said Thursday that he expects negotiations to continue.
The Detroit News:
- Ford Motor Co.(F) said Wednesday that restoring the company's credit rating to investment grade is now a top priority, particularly for the automaker's lending arm, Ford Credit. Speaking to Wall Street analysts in Dearborn, Ford CEO Alan Mulally also affirmed his commitment to put Ford back in the black by 2011, but cautioned against expecting too much from the recovery in the United States. "We are assuming a very gradual recovery," Mulally said, noting that the nation's jobless rate is still rising.
Lloyd’s List:
- Oil companies increased storage of refined fuels at sea by 29% in September, citing Steve Christy, head of research at EA Gibson Shipbrokers Ltd. There are 101 tankers storing diesel, jet fuel and other cargoes, compared with 78 at the end of August, citing Gibson data. Northwest Europe is short of land-based storage capacity for the fuels, according to Lloyd’s List.
- MAERSK Line is seeking over 280 voluntary officer redundancies from the UK and Denmark in a bid to slash costs across the company. Confirming the industry’s worst fears, the box giant admitted that hopes of an early economic upturn have now been abandoned and frontline jobs are on the line.
CNNMoney.com:
- Defense Secretary Robert Gates is leaning toward the view that a significant number of additional combat forces will be needed for the war in Afghanistan, sources tell CNN. Gates is inclined to back Gen. Stanley McChrystal, the top commander in Afghanistan, in pursuing a counterinsurgency strategy, defense and administration officials said Thursday. Both officials stressed that Gates does not necessarily support sending all the additional forces McChrystal would want, which sources have said could be as many as 40,000 troops. But they said Gates will likely agree with Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Michael Mullen, who told Congress last week that he expects more troops will be needed.
Rassmussen:
- The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows that 28% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Thirty-eight percent (38%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -10 (see trends).
Politico:
- In a shocking loss sure to provide fodder for President Obama’s opponents, the International Olympic Committee on Friday rejected Chicago’s bid for the 2016 Summer Olympics, only hours after Obama himself made an unprecedented pitch for his hometown at the committee's meeting in Copenhagen. Rio de Janeiro was awarded the games by the notoriously unpredictable committee, which eliminated Chicago in its first round of voting, and also passed over Tokyo and Madrid. The award to Rio, which had emphasized in its bid that no South American city had ever hosted an Olympics, set off jubilant celebrations in Brazil. Chicago’s defeat comes after an unprecedented campaign by the Obama administration — an eleventh-hour, full-court press that many observers assumed would only be mounted if the White House had solid intelligence that Chicago was likely to be selected. In addition to being the first president to personally lobby the IOC, Obama established the first-ever White House Olympics office (tapping senior White House adviser and longtime confidant Valerie Jarrett to head it) and recorded several videos seeking support from IOC subcommittees.
AppleInsider:
- Less bullish on Apple stock than other investors recently, UBS Investment Research has had a change of heart this week, and upgraded its long-term recommendation from neutral to buy. UBS analyst Maynard Um had issued a new price target of $265 for AAPL stock, up from $170. The improvement is based on the strength of the iPhone platform, as well as a push toward integrated services across the company's entire line of products. "We believe AAPL may be working on building out a foundation for a service to provide seamless access & mobility of digital content across all of its products," Um wote. "We envision a service that seamlessly allows access to media-focused content of iTunes & user-generated content of MobileMe (pictures/videos/email/caleendar) as well as social networking integration from any existing Apple product." By tying users in to Apple services, he believes that the company will draw consumers to purchase other products. Essentially, it's the iPod "halo effect" taken to the next level.
9to5Mac:
- Apple(AAPL) could double iPhone sales in 2010 as it drops exclusivity deals in key territories and works to extend its digital media principalities across its product range, analysts said this morning. Meanwhile the extreme secrecy of the company’s dealings with Orange and Vodafone to diversify iPhone distribution in the UK has come to light.
Reuters:
- An index of future U.S. economic growth slipped in the latest week, but its yearly growth rate climbed to a new record high, indicating a smooth recovery in the near-term, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index slipped to 127.1 in the week to Sept. 25 from an upwardly revised 127.9 the prior week, which was originally reported as 127.8. Last week's figure marked a 60-week high. The index's yearly growth rate rose to new all-time high of 25.1 percent in the latest reading from 24.3 percent the prior week. "With WLI growth rising to yet another record high, the economic recovery is highly unlikely to falter in the next few months," said ECRI Managing Director Lakshman Achuthan. Achuthan recently told Reuters that unease over rising unemployment, debt-laden consumers, and fears of a dip in economic growth are typical of recessionary times, and do not necessarily signal roadblocks to recovery. Last week, Achuthan said current data shows that economic recovery is "far from fragile."
- General Electric Co(GE) is holding discussions on partnerships or an IPO for its NBC Universal unit, Chief Executive Jeffrey Immelt said, as expectations grow about a deal with cable operator Comcast Corp. "Discussions are ongoing whether it is an IPO or another partnership," Immelt told reporters on Friday in response to a question on whether GE was talking to Comcast to sell a stake in NBCU.
- Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS), legendary for its clout in Washington, has inexplicably halted its political fund-raising machine. The strange twist comes at a time when Wall Street's biggest and most powerful investment bank, nicknamed Government Sachs by critics, seems in other respects to be just as politically involved as ever. By all accounts, its senior executives are in close contact with Washington regulators, the lobbyists on its payroll include some of the best connected, and it continues to spend heavily to influence government. During the 2008 election cycle, Goldman was the top corporate giver, according to the Washington-based Center for Responsive Politics, which tracked more than $6 million in political contributions back to the bank. Goldman strongly supported candidates from the Democratic party, according to the Center. PACs are just one of the tools companies use to exert political influence. They also employ lobbyists, form "527" advocacy groups, and encourage employees to contribute directly to candidates or causes, serve on boards, and work on campaigns or with political parties. "There's a number of ways," said Dave Levinthal, a spokesman for the Center for Responsive Politics. "Goldman Sachs at the very least is using several of those methods."
Financial Times:
- Australia announced plans on Friday for some of the strictest short selling disclosure rules in the world, which were welcomed cautiously by a hedge fund industry that had feared even tougher changes. Australia will demand from April that short sales positions be disclosed to the Australian Securities and Investments Commission, the corporate regulator, within one day of trading (T+1) and made public within four days. He added: “The government resisted that but Australia will have the most stringent regime in the world, bar Japan. In the US and UK, they have very liberal regimes. “In the US they are concerned about front-running [where investors mimic actions by other market participants] and in the UK they are too worried about losing their hedge fund industry.”
- A deluge of financial regulations threatens to harm economic growth, one of the world’s top bankers said on Friday, in what appeared to be the start of a concerted fightback by the industry against feared regulatory overkill. Josef Ackermann, chairman of the Institute of International Finance, the global bankers’ association, and head of Deutsche Bank, said governments were not paying enough attention to the aggregate impact of the reforms being proposed. “There is a trade-off between maximising stability of banks and optimising growth of the real economy. That balance [should] not be forgotten,” Mr Ackermann told the Financial Times. He warned that the entire economy would “pay a high price” if regulation went too far. He also warned that the global financial system could fragment if regulators in different jurisdictions continued to try to tighten their control over banks “at a local or regional level”.
- Finra, the main regulatory body for the US brokerage industry, issued a mea culpa on Friday in the wake of an internal report that found the agency repeatedly failed to investigate tips about accused Ponzi schemer Sir Allen Stanford and convicted Ponzi schemer Bernard Madoff. Among other findings, the report said Finra’s staff were “not adequately trained” in the conduct of investigations and that the regulator lacked procedures to bring cases to senior management or special investigators “based on the gravity and substance of the fraud allegations”. In a statement that managed to be both contrite and self-congratulatory, Finra’s chief executive office Richard Ketchum (oh, the irony) said:
TimesOnline:
