Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:

• Spanish Crisis Threatens Second Front as Catalonia Rates Rise. Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero may face a second front in his battle to contain Spain’s fiscal crisis as borrowing costs for the country’s regional governments climb. Catalonia, which accounts for a fifth of Spanish gross domestic product, has been shut out of public bond markets since March and the extra yield it pays over national government debt has almost tripled this year. Galicia, in the northwest, has asked to freeze payments of debt it owes the central government and the Madrid region postponed a bond sale last month. Spain’s regions, which borrowed at similar rates to the central government before the global credit crisis started in 2007, are key players in Zapatero’s drive to get his budget in order and push down the country’s borrowing costs. They control around twice as much spending as the state, employ more than half of all public workers and piled on debt during the recession. “If investors focused more on the problems in the regions, they would be less optimistic on Spain’s central government debt, and see that the rally in July was a bit overdone,” said Olaf Penninga, who helps manage 140 billion euros ($182 billion) at Rotterdam-based Robeco Group, and sold Spanish bonds last year. “If the central government has to help the regions it would aggravate an already bad situation.”
• Fed Embraces Japan-Style Tools With Floor on Securities. The Federal Reserve’s decision to sustain the current level of its assets intensifies the focus of the central bank on policy tools similar to those used with little impact by Japan last decade.
• Cisco(CSCO) Sales Miss Estimates on Sluggish Corporate Spending. Cisco Systems Inc., the largest maker of networking equipment, forecast sales this quarter that missed analysts’ estimates as companies rein in spending because of the sluggish economy. The stock dropped 7.9 percent.
• Crude Falls a Third Day on Signals Growth will Slow, Rise in Stockpiles. Oil fell for a third day in New York as U.S. fuel stockpiles rose more than forecast, adding to signs of slowing economic growth in the world’s biggest crude consumer. Oil has slumped 5.1 percent in the past three days after the Energy Department said gasoline supplies climbed, reaching the highest level for the weekly reporting period in at least 10 years. Distillate stockpiles increased to the highest since January 1983. “The U.S. inventory report was bearish, showing that there wasn’t much of a summer driving season again,” said Victor Shum, a senior principal at consultants Purvin & Gertz Inc. in Singapore. “Global economic concerns are becoming the top of mind issue so we’ve seen equities pull back. China is showing signs of weakness in growth.” Crude oil for September delivery dropped as much as 90 cents, or 1.2 percent, to $77.12 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
• U.S. Dollar May Rise by Year-End Like Euro After Crisis, Mizuho Trust Says. The dollar may rise above 90 yen by year-end as its 8.5 percent drop this year boosts U.S. exports and eases concerns about economic growth, much like the euro’s rebound from the debt crisis, said Mizuho Trust & Banking Co. The dollar may rise above 90 yen by year-end as its 8.5 percent drop this year boosts U.S. exports and eases concerns about economic growth, much like the euro’s rebound from the debt crisis, said Mizuho Trust & Banking Co.
• China's Yuan Slides Most in Seven Weeks on Slowdown Signs, Dollar Advance. The yuan dropped the most in seven weeks as concern the global economic recovery is faltering drove the dollar higher and fueled speculation Chinese policy makers will restrict gains to protect exports.
• Nikkei 225 Enters Bear Market as Yen Strengthens on Concerns Over Recovery. Japanese stocks fell, dragging the Nikkei 225 Stock Average into a bear market, as the yen trading near a 15-year high against the dollar threatened to dent export earnings.
• Foreclosure Crisis Spreads Across U.S. as Defaults Jump in Idaho, Illinois. Home foreclosures are climbing in the Northwest and Midwest, areas that had earlier dodged the worst of the mortgage crisis, according to real estate data firm RealtyTrac Inc. With 14.6 million Americans out of work and consumer spending declining, further weakness in housing could push the economy back into recession, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said Aug. 1. Foreclosure rates in Utah, Idaho, Illinois and Colorado rose in the second quarter compared with a year earlier, and rank among the 10 highest in the country. The number of homes seized by lenders at least doubled in 19 states and more than tripled in seven of them, according to Irvine, California-based RealtyTrac.

Wall Street Journal:

• Climate-Change Fight Shifting to Western US Coal Mines. Western U.S. coal producers are increasingly coming under fire by environmental groups that see a chance to fight climate change by curbing output from the nation's largest coal basin. For years environmentalists have lobbied for tougher limits on the emissions of heat-trapping gases blamed for climate change from power plants, vehicles and other direct sources. But the collapse of federal climate-change legislation in recent weeks and growth of coal exports to Asia is leading some groups to look past the smoke stacks and aim to quash emissions by stymieing production of fuel.
• Grim Voter Mood Turns Grimmer. Americans are growing more pessimistic about the economy and the war in Afghanistan, and are losing faith that Democrats have better solutions than Republicans, according to a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll.
• Investors Reload The Guns On Euro. Hedge funds surprised by the euro's recent advance once again are turning bearish on the common currency, which tumbled Wednesday against the dollar. For much of the year, the hot trade on Wall Street was wagering against the euro and the debt of various European countries. When bonds issued by Greece, Italy, Spain and other nations fell in price amid pangs of worry in the spring, some funds posted huge profits. In recent weeks, however, as economic prospects in the bloc of nations that use the euro appeared to improve, and Greece and other nations pursued austerity measures, the euro staged a startling rally. The turnaround hurt hedge funds clinging to bearish positions and prompted others to trim their trades. "You can't be dogmatic, you have to be respectful of the market," said William Allen, a New Jersey hedge-fund manager who cut bearish euro positions to limit losses. Now, he said, it is time to bet against the euro again. He isn't alone in the view.
• Illegal Immigrants Estimated to Account for 1 in 12 U.S. Births.
• Washington vs. Paul Ryan. What happens when a politician is more honest than his critics.

CNBC:

• Most Americans Favor Keeping All Bush Tax Cuts for Now. Most Americans would go along with temporarily extending the Bush tax cuts for all taxpayers, including the wealthy, until the economy recovers, a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey has found. That finding represents encouraging news for Republicans as they prepare for a fall battle over tax cuts in advance of mid-term elections.
• Hedge Funds Looking for 5-10% Correction, Says Scaramucci.
  

IBD:

• Its Network Technology Feeds A Digital World Hungry For Speed. Riverbed Technology (RVBD) understands.

Business Insider:

• The Return of Irish Debt Fears Throws Big Wrench into The Austerity Debate.

CNNMoney:

• China Needs 'U-Turn' to Avoid Crash Landing.

engadget:

• Exclusive: Upcoming Apple(AAPL) TV Loses 1080p Playback, Gains Apps...And Will Be Renamed iTV.

Wenweipo:

• China National Petroleum Corp., the country's state oil company, has banned the word "monopoly" from all its public statements and communications. CNPC, as the company is called, has a vocabulary list with as many as 100 words that must only be used with caution "to accurately direct public opinion," citing a list circulating the internet.

Economic Times:

• India May Ban Key BlackBerry Services. India may temporarily ban messenger and enterprise e-mail services offered on BlackBerry phones should the device maker Research In Motion(RIMM) and mobile phone service providers fail to address concerns raised by security agencies, citing an official.

Evening Recommendations
Citigroup:

• Upgraded (EBAY) to Buy, target $28.

Wells Fargo:

• Rated (AAPL), (GOOG), (IBM) and (NTAP) Outperform.

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are -1.25% to -.75% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 126.0 +7.0 basis points.
  
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 118.0 +4.25 basis points.
  
• S&P 500 futures -.24%.
  
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.49%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (EAT)/.46
• (EL)/.29
• (KSS)/.81
• (WEN)/.05
• (JWN)/.66
• (NVDA)/.11
• (BYI)/.56
• (ADSK)/.27
• (DV)/.81

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• The Import Price Index for July is estimated to rise +.3% versus a -1.3% decline in June.
• Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to fall to 465K versus 479K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 4535K versus 4537K prior.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Duke speaking, the $16 Billion 30-Year Treasury Bond Auction, Goldman Sachs Utility Conference, Jefferies Industrial Conference and the BofA Specialty Pharma Conference could also impact trading today.
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Rising Economic Fear, Increasing Sovereign Debt Angst, More Financial Sector Pessimism, Technical Selling

Broad Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  
• Sector Performance: Every Sector Declining
  
• Volume: Slightly Above Average
  
• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• VIX 25.31 +13.14%
  
• ISE Sentiment Index 126.0 +35.48%
  
• Total Put/Call 1.05 +3.96%
  
• NYSE Arms 5.12 +267.97%
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 108.51 bps +3.10%
  
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 116.69 bps +8.14%
  
• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 134.50 bps +7.0%
  
• Emerging Market CDS Index 218.04 bps +3.31%
  
• 2-Year Swap Spread 17.0 -2 bps
  
• TED Spread 24.0 -2 bps
  

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .14% unch.
  
• Yield Curve 218.0 -6 bps
  
• China Import Iron Ore Spot $147.60/Metric Tonne +1.72%
  
• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -55.0 -22.0 points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.75% -6 bps
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating -140 open in Japan
• DAX Futures: Indicating +5 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Lower: On losses in my Medical, Biotech and Technology long positions
  
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQQ) hedges, added to my (EEM) short
  
• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

BOTTOM LINE: Today's overall market action is very bearish as the S&P 500 is trading near session lows as it breaks convincingly back below its 200-day moving average. On the positive side, Tobacco, Food, Education and Telecom stocks are holding up relatively well, falling less than -1.5%. The ongoing trend lower in the 2-Yr Swap, Libor-OIS and TED spreads is a positive. On the negative side, Airline, Road & Rail, Construction, Bank, Networking, Steel, Oil Tanker, Alt Energy, Coal and Defense shares are especially weak, falling 4.0%+. Cyclical and Small-cap shares are underperforming again. (XLF) has been very heavy throughout the day. European bank stocks are under significant pressure again. The Euro Financial Sector CDS Index has risen substantially in the last two days and the Western European Sovereign CDS Index is now following suit. The Portugal sovereign cds is jumping +7.4% to 265.70 bps, the UK sovereign cds is rising +9.5% to 65.84 bps and the Greece sovereign cds is rising +4.9% to 829.0 bps. The euro currency has likely put in another meaningful top. The latest US scrap steel index quote is showing a decline of -11.13%, which puts it below its 200-day moving average for the first time since June 2009. The 10-year yield is falling another -7 bps to 2.69%, which is also a big negative. The market's reaction to Cisco's earnings report after the close today is key given recent tech sector concerns. I am not ruling out the possibility that another meaningful move lower in stocks has begun. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-lower into the close from current levels on more shorting, technical selling, profit-taking, rising sovereign debt angst, increasing financial sector pessimism and China worries.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Economists Cut U.S. Growth Forecasts, Hiring Limited. A lack of jobs will shackle consumer spending and restrain the U.S. recovery more than previously estimated, according to economists polled by Bloomberg News. Gross domestic product will expand at an average 2.55 percent annual rate in the last six months of 2010, according to the median of 67 estimates in a survey taken July 31 to Aug. 9, down from the 2.8 percent pace projected last month. Household purchases will climb at a 2.25 percent rate, compared with a 2.6 percent gain previously forecast. “Simply put, job growth in the private sector hasn’t improved as we would’ve expected,” said John Silvia, chief economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC in Charlotte, North Carolina. “The consumer continues to contribute to growth but at a subpar pace.” Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the economy will grow 1.5 percent this year, down from a 2.4 percent gain forecast a month ago, according to the survey median estimate. In addition to the lowered expectations for the second half of 2010, the downgrade also reflects the annual GDP revisions issued by the Commerce Department last month. Purchases, which rose 3 percent on average over the past three decades, dropped 1.2 percent last year, the biggest decrease since 1942. Joblessness will be slow to fall, signaling it will take years for the economy to recover the more than 8 million jobs lost during the recession that began in December 2007. Unemployment will average 9.6 percent in 2010 and 9.1 percent next year, according to the survey. “Unemployment is high, income growth has been pretty slow,” said Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York, who lowered estimates for growth and spending. “Household wealth is a lot lower than it was three years ago.” Job creation, the sluggish recovery and the growing budget deficit are likely to be top issues in November elections that will decide control of Congress.
• Default Swaps Climb to Two-Week High on U.S. Recovery Concern. The cost of protecting European corporate bonds from default rose to the highest in more than two weeks after the Federal Reserve said it would buy more Treasuries to support a weakening economic recovery. Credit-default swaps on the Markit iTraxx Crossover Index of 50 companies with mostly high-yield credit ratings climbed 13 basis points to 495.25, according to Markit Group Ltd. at 2:22 p.m. in London. That’s the highest level since the European Union released results of bank stress tests on July 23. The Markit iTraxx Europe index of 125 companies with investment-grade ratings increased 4 basis points to 119.75, Markit prices show. The cost of hedging against losses on Treasuries rose for a seventh day, with credit-default swaps linked to U.S. government debt rising 2.5 basis points to 46.5, according to data provider CMA. The contracts have risen from 36.2 on Aug. 2 and are at the highest in two months.
• HUD Offers Interest-Free Loans for Borrowers Facing Foreclosure. The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development will offer $1 billion in zero-interest, short- term loans to help unemployed homeowners avoid foreclosure. The loans will provide as much as $50,000 for borrowers to make payments on mortgages, taxes and insurance for as long as two years, HUD said today in a news release. The loan program will be available to borrowers at risk of foreclosure who have experienced a “substantial reduction” in income because of involuntary unemployment, underemployment or a medical condition, HUD said in the release. The U.S. Treasury Department said it will offer as much as $2 billion in aid to 17 states and the District of Columbia to help homeowners in areas hardest-hit by unemployment and foreclosures.
• U.S. Trade Deficit Unexpectedly Widens to $49.9 Billion. The trade deficit in the U.S. unexpectedly widened in June to the highest level since October 2008 as consumer goods imports rose to a record and exports declined. The gap grew 19 percent to $49.9 billion in June, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. A $42.1 billion deficit was projected by economists, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey. Imports climbed 3 percent, while exports dropped 1.3 percent, the most since April 2009. The figures signal trade subtracted more from second-quarter gross domestic product than previously estimated. Economists at UBS Securities in New York said the Commerce Department, in estimating growth from April through June at a 2.4 percent annual rate, assumed a $3.2 billion widening of the adjusted trade deficit in June. Exports minus imports subtracted 2.8 percentage points from growth during the three months, the most since 1982, the Commerce Department said July 30. Exports from the U.S. decreased to $150.5 billion from $152.4 billion, reflecting fewer shipments abroad of semiconductors, computers and steelmaking materials. Imports increased in June to $200.3 billion from $194.4 billion, led by telecommunications equipment, automobiles and consumer goods such as pharmaceutical preparations, televisions and furniture.
• Green Mountain(GMCR) Call Trades Surge After Lavazza Purchases Stake.
  

Wall Street Journal:

• German Debt Ratio May Rise to 90% of GDP on Bank Bailout - Report. The bailout of Germany's banking sector may swell the country's public debt rate to 90% of gross domestic product, Die Zeit weekly newspaper reports Wednesday. The weekly based this estimate on a recent decision by Eurostat requiring Germany to include the balance sheets of public-owned bad banks--set up to help financial institutions offload toxic and non-strategic assets--into its overall debt ratio. In July, it forecast Germany's debt level will rise from 73.1% in 2009 to 79% of GDP in 2010, 80% in 2011, to 80.5% respectively in 2012 and 2013 before easing to 80% in 2014. Die Zeit said that if nationalized mortgage lender Hypo Real Estate is added to the equation, Germany's debt level could widen to 90%. A debt ratio of 90% of GDP would be much higher than the 60% threshold set under the European Union's Maastricht Treaty.
• Health Care Continues to Wound Democrats. With less than three months before the November elections, the preponderance of the evidence is that the health care bill remains a political problem for Democratic candidates. In the “zero-sum” world of politics, Republicans see the issue as a plus for GOP challengers of Democratic lawmakers who voted for the bill. In March, when the legislation was approved, House Republican leader John Boehner pledged that the GOP would make the new law’s unpopularity a major campaign issue in the November elections. “You can only ignore the will of the people for so long and get away with it,” he said.

CNBC:

• Could Fed's Move Against Delflation End Up Backfiring? If you weren't worried about deflation, you may be now—thanks to the Federal Reserve's latest move to jumpstart the languid economy.
• Hard Times Investing: For Some, Cash Is Everything And Only Thing. Burned in the past decade by the dot-com bubble, Enron-style corporate governance, the housing bubble, the credit crunch and the Great Recession, retail investors have their money in places with little or no return but virtually no chance of a loss.

NY Post:

• Ameristar Casinos(ASCA) Mulling Sale. Ameristar Casinos, a regional operator of casinos in the Southwest and Midwest that has held up better than rivals in destinations like Las Vegas and Atlantic City, has hired an investment bank and is weighing a sale, The Post has learned. The company, which has an enterprise value of $2.4 billion -- or market cap plus debt -- has hired Lazard to explore the potential sale. The bank has begun to contact potential bidders, according to one source with direct knowledge of the situation. The sales process, a source said, is expected to begin in the fall.

Business Insider:

• Chart of the Day: Markets Losing Faith in Ben Bernanke's Deflation-Fighting Skills.
• Deja Vu: Slovakia Rejects Aid to Greece, Rumors About Irish Debt Flop, Fed Swap Lines Reopen, Euro Plunges.
  

Zero Hedge:

• July Budget Deficit Hits ($165 Billion), Longest String of Monthly Deficits on Record. With 22 months of deficits, it is now increasingly clear that America will never have a monthly surplus ever again. And the more debt is issued, the riskier the budget picture becomes, as the second rates begin increasing, now that the duration of US debt has increased by one year in the past 18 months, the interest payments are sure to explode, requiring even more borrowing, and so on, in true subprime borrower fashion, ad inf.
• Lack of Stock Dispersion Hits All Time Record as Most Stocks Now Trade as One. (graph)
  

CNN:

• Florida Attorney General Proposes Immigration Legislation. Florida Attorney General Bill McCollum -- who is in the midst of an intense Republican primary fight for governor -- has proposed legislation aimed at curbing illegal immigration, according to a statement from his office. Joined in Orlando, Florida, by legislators and law enforcement officials, McCollum unveiled the proposal Wednesday. It would require law enforcement officers to check suspected illegal immigrants' status in the course of a lawful stop. It would also require Florida businesses to use the E-Verify system to check that applicants are legally authorized to work and would enhance penalties for illegal aliens who commit crimes in Florida.

LA Times:

• Goldman Sachs(GS) Could Be Largely Unaffected by Financial Overhaul. As Wall Street scrambles to find the best and most profitable way to operate under the new financial reform law, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. — the firm that was expected to suffer the most under the legislation — could emerge practically unscathed. Top Goldman executives privately advised analysts that the bank did not expect the reform measure to cost it any revenue. "The statement was perhaps surprising in its level of conviction," Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst Guy Moszkowski wrote in a note to clients, "but we've learned to take such judgments from GS very seriously." The contentious legislation has been viewed by some supporters as a way to rein in Wall Street, perhaps especially Goldman, which last year recorded net income of $13.4 billion. Richard Bove, a bank analyst at Rochdale Securities, said he had changed his view of the law's effect on Goldman. "I thought this company was going to be really harmed by this bill; now I've figured out that it's not going to happen," he said. "They should win big here."

Rasmussen Reports:

• Daily Presidential Tracking Poll. The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows that 24% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as president. Forty-six percent (46%) Strongly Disapprove, giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -22 (see trends).
• 57% of Likely Voters Describe Democratic Agenda as Extreme. Most U.S. voters believe the Democratic congressional agenda is extreme, while a plurality describe the Republican agenda as mainstream. A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 57% of Likely U.S. Voters think the agenda of Democrats in Congress is extreme. Thirty-four percent (34%) say it is more accurate to describe the Democratic agenda as mainstream.

Reuters:

• Russia's LUKOIL Resumes Gasoline Supply to Iran. Russian oil giant LUKOIL has resumed gasoline sales into Iran in partnership with China's state-run firm Zhuhai Zhenrong, even as the United States urges the international community to be tough with Tehran. Iran is the world's fifth-largest oil exporter but lacks adequate refining capacity to meet domestic demand for motor fuel, forcing it to import up to 40 percent of its requirements. LUKOIL's trading arm, Litasco, and Zhenrong discharged a 250,000-barrel gasoline cargo at the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas last week, industry sources said. Geneva-based Litasco was expected to ship a second cargo of the motor fuel to Bandar Abbas later this week, traders said. Chinese companies have delivered about half of Iran's gasoline imports in recent months. State-run Zhenrong is the single largest lifter of Iranian crude oil. LUKOIL has significant exposure in the United States, with 1,500 retail gasoline stations.
• UBS Says Sell Petrobras(PBR) on Capital Plan Doubts. Swiss bank UBS on Wednesday cut its rating on common shares of Brazilian state oil company Petrobras, recommending investors sell the stock on concerns about uncertainties linked to a massive oil-for-shares capitalization plan. UBS said the company runs an increasing risk of overpaying for oil reserves in the capitalization plan that would give Petrobras rights to up to 5 billion barrels of oil and raise as much as $25 billion from minority shareholders. The stock was cut to "sell" from "neutral."

Times of India:

• India May Temporarily Ban BlackBerry Services. India may temporarily shut down BlackBerry services if security concerns are not addressed in a meeting on Thursday, sources said, a sign the Canadian firm's tussle with authorities around the world is far from over.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value (-3.60%)

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy -5.30% 2) Road & Rail -4.33% 3) Coal -4.26%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• BCS, STD, PHG, AIXG, FMBI, STO, TI, SFLY, CREE, VECO, MYGN, IDSA, ASMI, SOLF, DLLR, ASML, MPWR, GLAD, PEGA, ASYS, GIVN, BRCM, CAGC, PRXL, BRLI, FIZZ, MOH, DPM, ELG, SYX, EWN, ASR, MR, DSG, EWI, KRE, EFV and WLP
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) DTV 2) CI 3) AET 4) LDK 5) M
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) JBLU 2) GPS 3) AIG 4) WFC 5) PBR
  

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value (-2.19%)

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Education +.28% 2) Telecom -1.13% 3) Gold -1.31%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• UTI, APOL, ASCA, HMIN, NFLX, GMCR and TTM
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) AMT 2) DTV 3) CREE 4) MDR 5) LRCX
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) M 2) AAPL 3) GOOG 4) CSCO 5) GMCR
  

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:

• Goldman Sachs(GS) Says Says 'Don't Be Afraid' of Prices Above Par: Credit Markets. The highest corporate bond prices in more than six years show investors reconsidering an aversion to buying debt trading above face value as the Federal Reserve is compelled to take more steps to boost a slowing recovery.
• China Said to Order Banks to Reclaim Loans From Trust Companies. China’s banking regulator ordered banks to transfer off-balance-sheet loans onto their books and make provisions for those that may default, three people with knowledge of the situation said. The assets linked to wealth management products provided by trust companies must be shifted onto banks’ balance sheets by the end of 2011, the people said, declining to be identified as the matter isn’t public. Lenders should prepare provisions equal to 150 percent of potential losses, they said. The move may increase pressure for capital-raising at Chinese banks, which Fitch Ratings last month said had more than 2.3 trillion yuan ($339 billion) of off-balance sheet assets. It also underscores concerns about the health of the banking industry after a person with knowledge of the matter said regulators last month ordered lenders to conduct stress tests to gauge the impact of a 60 percent decline in home prices. The regulator’s order “will plug the loophole that more and more banks now employ to get around government lending curbs,” said Liao Qiang, a Beijing-based analyst at Standard & Poor’s.
• China Industrial Output Growth Weakens on Curbs; Inflation Rises to 3.3%. China’s industrial output grew the least in 11 months in July as the government cracked down on real-estate speculation, curbed credit and closed factories to meet energy-efficiency targets. Production rose 13.4 percent from a year earlier, the statistics bureau said in Beijing today. Inflation quickened to 3.3 percent, the fastest in 21 months, boosted by a low year- earlier base for comparison and rising food costs. Weaker demand from a Chinese slowdown forecast to deepen each quarter this year may ripple across Asia, limiting growth in the nations with the closest economic ties.
• Oil Trades Near Seven-Day Low as Productivity Drop Casts Doubt on Recovery. Crude oil declined for a second day after the Labor Department reported that the productivity of U.S. workers fell in the second quarter, a sign the economic recovery is faltering. Crude oil for September delivery dropped as much as 45 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $79.80 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and was at $79.84 at 9:38 a.m. Singapore time.
• Gold Rises on Speculation Federal Reserve Debt Purchase to Spur Inflation. Gold prices rallied in New York, erasing an earlier drop, after the Federal Reserve said it would buy more U.S. government debt. The central bank said it would reinvest principal payments on its mortgage holdings into long-term Treasury securities in a bid to bolster growth. Gold prices have gained 27 percent in the past 12 months, reaching a record $1,266.50 an ounce on June 21, on speculation that record-low borrowing costs and government stimulus programs would spur inflation. “If the Fed keeps printing money to buy more debt, it’s going to be positive for gold,” said Michael K. Smith, the president of T&K Futures & Options in Port St. Lucie, Florida. “Gold is going to keep going higher. It’s an excellent investment.”
• Toyota Brakes Not Used in 35 of 58 Accidents Probed, U.S. Says. Drivers of Toyota Motor Corp. vehicles failed to apply the brakes in 35 of 58 crashes tied to unintended acceleration, U.S. regulators said in a report bolstering the automaker. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration also saw no evidence of electronics-related causes for the accidents in reviewing the vehicle recorders, known as black boxes, the agency said yesterday in the interim report to lawmakers.
• Europe to Asia Naphtha Halts on Weaker Demand: Energy Markets. Asian petrochemical companies may import little or no naphtha from Europe for a second month in August amid ample supplies and weak demand in Japan. There may be no shipments of the oil product, used to make petrochemicals and gasoline, in August according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of four Europe-based traders, who declined to be identified as they aren’t authorized to speak about transactions. The dearth of cargoes compares with 300,000 metric tons in June and 500,000 tons in May. “Asian demand growth is slowing considerably,” David Wech, head of research at Vienna-based consultants JBC Energy, said by phone Aug. 4. “New refining capacity in China and ethane-based petrochemical capacity in the Middle East are also denting naphtha requirements,” he said.
• Pimco Says Fed Policies 'Good for Risk Assets,' Won't Reduce Unemployment. The Federal Reserve’s decision to buy Treasuries and keep interest rates low will support “risk assets” without bringing down unemployment, said Anthony Crescenzi at Pacific Investment Management Co. “Low volatility tends to be good for the interest-rate climate,” said Crescenzi, who is based in Newport Beach, California at Pimco, manager of the world’s biggest bond fund. “It does push investors out the risk spectrum generally. That tends to be good for risk assets.”
• U.S. Relies on Military at War to Deliver Aid for Pakistani Flood Victims. The U.S. is relying on the military to funnel meals, prefabricated bridges and medical supplies to Pakistan’s flood victims, even as American troops fight a war in neighboring Afghanistan. U.S. State Department officials said yesterday that flood aid to Pakistan would increase by $20 million, to a total $55 million, to help the estimated 14 million people uprooted by country’s worst natural disaster in 80 years. The Obama administration sees Pakistan’s cooperation as vital to defeating the Taliban and al-Qaeda and wants to counter Pakistani suspicions about the U.S. commitment to the region. In a poll released last month by the Pew Research Center in Washington, almost 60 percent of Pakistanis said they consider the U.S. to be an enemy.

Wall Street Journal:

• House Vote Deals Another Blow to Renewable Energy Companies. House lawmakers voted Tuesday to slash federal renewable-energy subsidies, to help finance instead a $26 billion emergency aid package for state and local governments. The U.S. House of Representatives voted to transfer $1.5 billion from the renewable-energy and transmission loan-guarantee program, dealing yet another blow to solar, wind and ethanol companies. It was the second reduction in a year and left the program's size at about $25 billion, less than half the amount originally envisioned when the Democratic-led Congress used an economic stimulus package to steer money into alternative energy projects.
• Exchanges Joust As SEC Works to Finalize Flash Order Ban. Nasdaq OMX Group (NDAQ) and NYSE Euronext (NYX) support the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's proposal to ban flash orders in all trading, while the Chicago Board Options Exchange opposes it for the options market, according to comments to the SEC that were made public Tuesday.
• Fed Sees Recovery Slowing. Central Bank, Worried About Economic Vigor, Won't Shrink Securities Portfolio.
• Gains in Bioscience Cause Terror Fears. Rapid advances in bioscience are raising alarms among terrorism experts that amateur scientists will soon be able to gin up deadly pathogens for nefarious uses. Fears of bioterror have been on the rise since the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, stoking tens of billions of dollars of government spending on defenses, and the White House and Congress continue to push for new measures. But the fear of a mass-casualty terrorist attack using bioweapons has always been tempered by a single fact: Of the scores of plots uncovered during the past decade, none have featured biological weapons. Indeed, many experts doubt terrorists even have the technical capability to acquire and weaponize deadly bugs. The new fear, though, is that scientific advances that enable amateur scientists to carry out once-exotic experiments, such as DNA cloning, could be put to criminal use. Many well-known figures are sounding the alarm over the revolution in biological science, which amounts to a proliferation of know-how—if not the actual pathogens.
• Stimulus Pushers. The latest bailout for public unions and spendthrift states. Witness yesterday's 247-161 largely party-line House vote to approve a Senate bill shovelling another $26.1 billion out to state education and Medicaid programs. The White House has promoted the bill as emergency assistance for strained state budgets. But this unique brand of therapy drives states to spend more, not less. The "assistance" is so expensive that several governors were begging for relief even before Mr. Obama signed it into law.

Fox News:

• A Doctor's Prognosis for Obamacare - The Four Essential Problems With the Patient.

NY Times:

• Netflix(NFLX) to Pay Nearly $1 Billion to Add Films to On-Demand Service.

Zero Hedge:

• Fed Bailing Out Pension Plans?

PIMCO:

• Turning Japanese: The Risk of U.S. Deflation. The risk is rising that the U.S. will enter a prolonged period of stagnant growth combined with a risk of outright deflation – similar to the environment that Japan entered in the 1990s.

Politico:

• GOP Tries for Health Reform Repeal. Republicans are continuing to telegraph their opposition to health care reform by filing another petition that would force the House to vote on repealing the legislation. Rep. Wally Herger (R-Calif.) filed a discharge petition Tuesday that would get rid of the Democrats’ health care reform and replace it with a Republican alternative.
• Liberals Still Steamed at Gibbs. At first they were just angry. Now liberal critics are steaming mad. The Obama administration’s attempts to blunt press secretary Robert Gibbs’s frustrations about the “professional left” in a newspaper interview published Tuesday haven’t changed much. Gibbs’s backtracking — he said he spoke “inartfully” to The Hill — and deputy press secretary Bill Burton’s assertion that his boss “answered honestly” when he derided liberal critics, seemed only to make matters worse.
• Bennet Survives; Deal, Handel Deadlocked. Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet beat back a tough Democratic primary challenge from former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff Tuesday, holding off the electoral wave that has already claimed two incumbent senators and threatened to drown Bennet’s short political career.

Reuters:

• Disney(DIS) Profit Beats Expectations, Shares Rise. Hit movies like "Toy Story 3" and higher advertising sales lifted Walt Disney Co's (DIS) quarterly profit above Wall Street's expectations, despite dwindling theme park attendance in the United States.
• Bearish Bets in U.S. Stocks Ease in Late July. Bearish bets eased in late July, stock exchanges said on Tuesday, suggesting investors retreated to the sidelines as U.S. equities closed out their best month in a year. Short interest on NYSE dipped 0.5 percent in late July compared to the middle of the month, while short bets decreased by 1.1 percent on the Nasdaq.
• Cree(CREE) Quarterly Profit up Sharply, Shares Fall. Cree Inc (CREE), which makes LED lighting, on Tuesday reported a more than fivefold increase in quarterly profit on Tuesday, but its revenue outlook for the current quarter fell short of Wall Street estimates. Shares of Cree dropped 8 percent in post-market trading.
• US Pushing for Significant Bank Capital Boost - Barr. The United States is pushing hard in international negotiations for a "significant increase" in capital held by financial firms as a buffer against catastrophic failures that could threaten the global economy, a senior U.S. Treasury official said on Tuesday.

Financial Times:

• Buy-Out Groups Eye Stakes in Morgan Stanley(MS) Fund. US private equity firms have approached Morgan Stanley about buying a stake in its troubled real estate funds management business, according to people familiar with the matter. KKR and TPG, both private equity firms that lack a substantial property operation, have expressed tentative interest in Morgan Stanley Real Estate Fund, or MSREF.

Shanghai Securities News:

• China will face "intense" trade friction over the next two to five years with trade barriers a regular issue, Zhang Monan, a researcher with the State Information Center wrote. A new wave of yuan appreciation pressure will likely emerge at the same time, Zhang wrote.
• Chinese wages along the country's eastern seaboard have risen 20 to 25% since the beginning of the year, citing Huang Libin, an official from China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.
  

Evening Recommendations
Citigroup:

• Reiterated Buy on (DISH), target $24.
  

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are -1.75% to unch. on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 119.0 +5.0 basis points.
  
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 113.75 +3.25 basis points.
  
• S&P 500 futures -.62%.
  
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.58%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (M)/.28
• (CSC)/.89
• (CSCO)/.42
• (AAP)/1.03

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• The Trade Deficit for June is expected to come in at -$42.1 Billion versus -$42.3 Billion in May.

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -2,000,000 barrels versus a -2,784,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +250,000 barrels versus a +729,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are expected to rise by +1,750,000 barrels versus a +2,173,000 increase the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is expected to fall by -.5% versus a +.6% gain the prior week.

2:00 pm EST

• The Monthly Budget Deficit for July is estimated to come in at -$169.0 Billion versus -$180.7 Billion in June.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The $24 Billion 10-Year T-Note Auction, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Report, Jefferies Industrial Conference, CSFB Industrial Conference, Oppenheimer Telecom/Media/Tech Conference and the Morgan Keegan Defense Conference could also impact trading today.
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by automaker and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day