Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:  
  • French Jobless Claims Jump to 14-Year High on Stalled Economy. French jobless claims jumped to a 14-year high as a stalled economy prompted companies to trim payrolls and investment. The number of people actively looking for work rose by 45,400, or 1.5 percent, to 3.103 million, the Labor Ministry said today in an e-mailed statement from Paris. Economists predicted an increase of 28,600, according to the median of six forecasts gathered by Bloomberg News. The increase brings jobless claims to their highest since April 1998, increasing pressure on President Francois Hollande to tackle labor rules and costs in a push for competitiveness that he has promised by year-end.
  • Greece Wins Easier Debt Terms as EU Hails Rescue Formula. European finance ministers eased the terms on emergency aid for Greece, declaring after three years of false starts that Europe has found the formula for nursing the debt-stricken country back to health. In the latest bid to keep the 17-nation euro intact, the ministers cut the rates on bailout loans, suspended interest payments for a decade, gave Greece more time to repay and engineered a Greek bond buyback. The country was also cleared to receive a 34.4 billion-euro ($44.7 billion) loan installment in December.
  • China’s Stocks Drop Below 2,000. China’s stocks fell, with the benchmark index closing below 2,000 for the first time since 2009, as the value of shares traded slumped to the lowest in four years. Material and health-care companies led losses. The Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) dropped 1.3 percent to 1,991.17 at the 3 p.m. local-time close, its lowest level since Jan. 23, 2009. Shares worth 33.1 billion yuan ($5.3 billion) changed hands in the measure yesterday, the least since Nov. 7, 2008, while data showed that the number of A-share trading accounts that made transactions last week fell to 5.6 million, the lowest for a five-day week since at least January 2008. “Investors are voting with their feet,” Zhang Ling, general manager at Shanghai River Fund Management Co., said by phone.
  • Demand for U.S. Capital Goods Climbs in Spending Rebound. The Conference Board’s confidence index increased to 73.7 in November from 73.1 the prior month, the New York-based group said today. The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values in 20 cities advanced 3 percent in September from a year earlier. Bookings for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft rose 1.7 percent last month, the most since May, the Commerce Department reported.
  • ConAgra(CAG) gobbles up store brands with Ralcorp(RAH) deal. ConAgra Foods is set to become the nation's biggest maker of store brand foods, with its $5 billion purchase of Ralcorp expanding its stake in the fast-growing market for cereals, crackers and other packaged foods sold under private labels.
  • RIM(RIMM) Shares Fall After U.S. Market Share Shrinks to 1.6%. Research In Motion Ltd. (RIMM) fell the most in almost three weeks after the BlackBerry’s U.S. market share shrank to 1.6 percent, hurt by Apple Inc. (AAPL)’s iPhone winning more customers. The stock dropped 6.8 percent to $11.17 at 12:21 p.m. in New York after earlier dropping as much as 8 percent, the biggest intraday decline since Nov. 7.
Wall Street Journal: 
CNBC: 
  • Sen. Reid Reports Little Progress in 'Fiscal Cliff' Talks. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said Tuesday that "fiscal cliff" talks have made "little progress," sending stock prices down, while Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell ripped into President Barack Obama for planning to hit the road to promote his tax agenda.
  • UK Prepares for Decisive Day as Downgrade Looms. With sluggish growth, an expanding budget deficit and fears of a downgrade, the U.K finance minister will next week use his Autumn Statement to update his plans for the economy with predictions emerging that a tax crackdown on multinationals could be on the cards.
  • Why Has Wall Street Gotten So Bullish About Next Year? Even the bears are bullish for 2013, a year in which virtually every Wall Street expert believes the market will overcome its many headwinds and post a positive year.
CNN:
Reuters:
  • OECD cuts global economic forecasts over euro zone risks. The OECD slashed its global growth forecasts on Tuesday, warning that the debt crisis in the recession-hit euro zone is the greatest threat to the world economy. In light of the dire economic outlook, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development urged central banks to prepare for more exceptional monetary easing if politicians fail to come up with credible answers to the debt crisis. The Paris-based think-tank forecast in its twice-yearly Economic Outlook that the global economy would grow 2.9 percent this year before expanding 3.4 percent in 2013. The estimate marked a sharp downgrade since the OECD last estimated a rate in May of 3.4 percent for this year and 4.2 percent in 2013.
  • France to back Palestinian U.N. status. France said on Tuesday it would vote in favour of Palestinian non-member status at the United Nations, boosting Palestinian efforts to secure greater international recognition. Frustrated that their bid for full U.N. membership last year was thwarted by U.S. opposition in the U.N. Security Council, Palestinians have launched a watered-down bid for recognition as a non-member state, similar to the status the Vatican enjoys.
USA Today:
  • Egyptians pack Tahrir Square for anti-Morsi protest. (video) Angry chants filled Tahrir Square on Tuesday as thousands of demonstrators filled the iconic center of last year's revolt, this time to protest a recent decree that grants President Mohammed Morsi sweeping powers. The protesters, waving Egypt's red, white and black flags and chanting slogans against Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood, joined several hundred who had been camping out since Friday demanding the decree be revoked. "I'm against the constitution and the dictatorship of Mr. Morsi," said Horeya Naguib, whose first name in Arabic means freedom. "He is selling his own country and looks out for the interests of his group, not the people of Egypt."
Frankfurter Rundschau:
  • EU expects Egyptian president Mohamed Mursi to reverse measures that put him above the law otherwise aid will be cut, citing EU parliament's foreign affairs committee Elmar Brok.
Handelsblatt:
  • The European Union is pushing for ratings companies to be liable for incorrect credit ratings, citing people with knowledge of discussions at the European Commission. The EU's stance doesn't mean that ratings firms necessarily will face financial consequences, as the EU wants national courts to decide on potential damages. The burden of proof in court procedures will lie with complainants, not with ratings agencies.

Jiji Press:
  • Passengers on JAL's China Flights Down 33% in October. The number of passengers on Japan Airlines' <9201> flights linking Japan and China plunged 33.0 pct in October from a year before to 68,311, the carrier said Tuesday. The fall reflected worsening relations between Japan and China following Japan's nationalization of three of the five disputed Senkaku islands in the East China Sea, claimed also by China, in September.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Large-Cap Value -.30%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Oil Tankers -1.40% 2) Gold & Silver -1.21% 3) Computer Hardware -1.01%
Stocks Faling on Unusual Volume:
  • THO, EXXI, ARG, RIMM, BEAM, CSGP, NTE, NXY, MBT, TG, CNH, HTWR, ZION, VCRA, YOKU, LPNT, PLL, AKAM, STX, TYN, RDC, FIO and DDD
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) MMR 2) CLSN 3) DTV 4) CREE 5) XOP
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) DAL 2) MBI 3) GPS 4) HPQ 5) DELL
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Small-Cap Growth +.09%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Gaming +2.34% 2) Foods +.65% 3) Tobacco +.64%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • RAH, DMND, MNST, CREE, GNRC, CROX, CAG, GLW, LVS, AMRN and BSFT
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) ACAD 2) CAG 3) KCG 4) CREE 5) APC
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) HEI 2) BF/A 3) LVS 4) RAH 5) GLW
Charts:

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg: 
  • Greek Aid Deal Reached by EU, Debt Relief Ruled Out. European finance ministers cut Greece’s interest rates and gave it more time to pay back rescue loans while dismissing for now calls for debt relief that may be needed to keep the country afloat over the longer term. In the fourth Greek crisis meeting in two weeks, the ministers persuaded a skeptical International Monetary Fund that Europe has a formula for putting the country that triggered the debt crisis onto a path back out of it. Greece was also cleared to receive a 34.4 billion-euro loan installment in December. “All initiatives decided upon today will bring Greece’s public debt clearly back on a sustainable path,” Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker told reporters after chairing a 13-hour meeting that ended early today. “This has been a very difficult deal.” After three years of false starts, the creditor governments led by Germany proclaimed the latest fix for Greece just as they grapple with swelling financing needs in Cyprus and a potential aid request by Spain, the fourth-largest euro economy.
  • Hollande to Meet Mittal After Minister Calls for Nationalization. President Francois Hollande will meet today with Lakshmi Mittal, chief executive officer of ArcelorMittal, the world’s biggest steelmaker, after a member of the French government called for the nationalization of the company’s troubled local unit. The meeting at the Elysee presidential palace in Paris follows Industry Minister Arnaud Montebourg’s remarks to Les Echos newspaper yesterday that the state “doesn’t want Mittal in France anymore,” accusing the company and its CEO of lying and calling Mittal “the problem.” Mittal’s family told Le Monde dated today it was “extremely shocked” by the comments. 
  • China’s Stocks Drop Below 2,000 as Trading Value Hits 2008 Low. China’s stocks fell, dragging the benchmark index below the 2,000 level, after the value of shares traded slumped to the lowest in four years. Industrial companies and property developers led losses. Sany Heavy Industry Co. (600031) retreated 2.6 percent to a two-year low even after data showed industrial companies’ profits accelerated to 20.5 percent in October. JiuGuiJiu Co. tumbled 10 percent after the Beijing News said the liquor maker will halt production to replace equipment. The Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) dropped 1 percent to 1,998.20 at the 11:30 a.m. local-time break, heading for its lowest close since Jan. 23, 2009. Shares worth 33.1 billion yuan changed hands in the measure yesterday, the least since Nov. 7, 2008. “Investors have no confidence in long-term growth prospects and the government isn’t doing much to reverse the situation,” said Wang Zheng, Shanghai-based chief investment officer at Jingxi Investment Management Co., which manages $120 million. “Trading values may fall even further.” The Shanghai Composite is heading for a third straight annual loss after declining 9.2 percent this year. The gauge has plunged 42 percent through yesterday since Aug. 4, 2009, when the gauge reached its highest level since the global financial crisis.
  • Speculators Raise Wagers First Time in Seven Weeks: Commodities. Speculators raised bullish commodity wagers for the first time since early October as signs of improving economic growth in the U.S. and China pushed prices higher for three straight weeks. Hedge funds and other money managers increased combined net-long positions across 18 U.S. futures and options by 9.6 percent to 846,321 contracts in the week ended Nov. 20, Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. That was the biggest gain since mid-August. Corn holdings rose the most since July, and those on silver reached a five-week high.
  • India Growth Seen Slowing Adds Policy-Overhaul Pressure: Economy. India’s economy probably expanded at the weakest pace last quarter since the 2009 global recession as elevated inflation and subdued investment add pressure on Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to extend a recent policy overhaul.
  • Dubai Risking Bubble Redux With Lowest Rates: Mortgages. Dubai, the desert sheikdom where home prices have plunged 65 percent since 2008, risks re- inflating its property bubble with the help of mortgage lenders offering easy terms and the lowest rates ever. “I don’t like it when I see mortgages going back to 90 percent lending, that’s not good for the industry,” said Abdul Aziz Al Ghurair, head of the United Arab Emirates’ Bankers’ Association and chief executive officer of Dubai’s Mashreqbank PSC. (MASQ) “We don’t want to encourage people to gamble.
  • Vietnam Empty Office Towers Show Dreams Turned to Rubble.
  • Equity Residential(EQR), AvalonBay(AVB) to Buy Lehman’s Archstone. Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. agreed to sell its Archstone Inc. apartment unit to Equity Residential and AvalonBay Communities Inc. for $6.5 billion, dropping plans to take the landlord public in an initial stock offering.
Wall Street Journal: 
Fox News: 
  • Egypt's Morsi hasn't heard from Obama since power grab. President Obama, who praised Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi for brokering a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas, has not spoken to the Islamist since his alarming power grab, a White House spokesman said Monday.
MarketWatch.com: 
Zero Hedge: 
Business Insider: 
NY Times:
  • Mortgage Interest Deduction, Once a Sacred Cow, Is Under Scrutiny. A tax break that has long been untouchable could soon be in for some serious scrutiny. Many home buyers deduct their mortgage interest when assessing their tax bill, a perk that has helped bolster the income of millions of families — and the broader housing market. But as President Obama and Congress try to hash out a deal to reduce the budget deficit, the mortgage interest deduction will likely be part of the discussion.
Forbes:
Reuters: 
  • MF Global customers to seek subpoenas for Corzine, others. A group of former MF Global customers on Monday asked a court for permission to subpoena the commodities broker's executives, including former CEO Jon Corzine, who was blamed in a congressional report this month for MF Global's collapse.
  • With US 'fiscal cliff' deadline nearing, parties still at odds. Republicans in the U.S. Congress on Monday called on President Barack Obama to detail long-term spending cuts to help solve the country's fiscal crisis, while holding firm against the income tax rate increases for the wealthy that Democrats seek. In a further sign of tense relations between negotiators who are trying to avert a year-end "fiscal cliff" of steep tax increases and spending cuts, the White House expressed doubts that "balanced" deficit reductions can be achieved merely by limiting tax breaks and cutting spending, as Republicans propose.
Financial Times:
  • GMO abandons bond market. GMO, the Boston-based asset manager, says it has “given up” on the bond market, deciding to ditch long-dated sovereign debt as investors continue to pour billions into government bonds, including US Treasuries. Ben Inker, co-head of asset allocation for the $104bn group, told the Financial Times it is holding large, high-quality companies in the US but that its main bet is to keep money on the sidelines while it waits for better times.
Kyodo:
  • The Japanese govt. is in the final stages of compiling an 880b yen package as a second round of economic stimulus.
Economic Daily:
  • Apple(AAPL) Asks AUO to Halt Panel Production for iPad Mini.  Apple asks AUO to halt panel shipments because of defects, citing a person from the supply industry. 
China Daily: 
  • Campaign targeting smuggling 'grim' task. Authorities are facing a "grim'' situation with the value of smuggled goods rising annually by about 20 percent from January to September, an official said. Customs had uncovered 1,415 cases of smuggling by the end of September, involving goods worth 22.8 billion yuan ($3.66 billion). The value marked a 20 percent annual increase, according to the General Administration of Customs. 
Financial News:
  • China should aim to prevent economic "bubbles" after the government transitions next year, China Everbright Bank Co. Chairman Tang Shuangning said in an article.
  • China's monetary policy should give a higher priority to stabilizing prices, Financial News says in a front-page unsigned commentary.
China National Radio:  
  • Wal-Mart(WMT) May Close 100 Unprofitable Stores in China. Co. may close 100 unprofitable stores in China between 2013 and 2015, citing people familiar with the situation. Between 2007 to 2012, the co. increased the number of stores in China from 100 to more than 380, according to the report.
Evening Recommendations 
  • None of note
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 114.75 -1.25 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 84.75 unch.
  • FTSE-100 futures +.67%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.24%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.30%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • None of note
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Durable Goods Orders for October are estimated to fall -.7% versus a +9.9% gain in September.
  • Durables Ex Transports for October are estimated to fall -.5% versus a +2.0% gain in September.
  • Cap Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex Air for October are estimated to fall -.5% versus unch. in September.
 9:00 am EST
  • The S&P/CS 20 City Home Price Index (MoM% SA) for September is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.49% gain in August.
 10:00 am EST
  • The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for November is estimated to fall to -9 versus -7 in October.
  • Consumer Confidence for November is estimated to rise to 73.0 versus a reading of 72.2 in October.   
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Bernanke speaking, Fed's NY VP Christine Cumming speaking, Fed's Evans speaking, Fed's Fisher speaking, Fed's Lockhart speaking, UK GDP report, Germany inflation data, 2Y T-Note auction, weekly retail sales reports, Piper Jaffray Healthcare Conference, Goldman Metals/Mining Conference and the (PNR) analyst day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Monday, November 26, 2012

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Rising Fiscal Cliff Concerns, More Eurozone Debt Angst, Growing Global Growth Fears, Consumer Discretionary/Energy Sector Weakness

Today's Market Take:
 
Broad Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Light
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • VIX 15.70 +3.70%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 146.0 +37.7%
  • Total Put/Call .62 -30.34%
  • NYSE Arms 1.20 +184.88%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 101.14 +2.09%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 166.08 +3.45%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 113.46 bps -1.0%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 257.0 bps +1.74%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 13.5 -.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 22.0 -.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -28.0 -.75 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .09% +2 basis point
  • Yield Curve 140.0 -2 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $118.20/Metric Tonne -.59%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 47.50 +.1 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.39 -1 basis point
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei Futures: Indicating -22 open in Japan
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +15 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my Tech sector longs and Emerging Markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg: 
  • Euro Chiefs Claim Greek Progress, Seek to Persuade ECB. Euro-area finance ministers will push the International Monetary Fund and central bankers to endorse new plans to save Greece from the fiscal abyss, seeking to overcome the latest impasse in the debt crisis and restart aid payments to Athens. Finance chiefs will brief the IMF and European Central Bank on “further concessions” that would plug Greece’s deficit gap without forcing a writeoff of official loans, Austria’s Maria Fekter said today before the ministers’ fourth round of talks on the Greek crisis in two weeks.
  • Catalonia’s Republican Left May Resist Austerity After Vote. The Catalan Republican Left, the biggest gainer in yesterday’s regional election, may use its leverage to reverse the austerity policies that Spain and the European Union have imposed on Catalonia and raise bank taxes. ERC, as the party is known, will push for a new tax on banks to help fund an increase in public investment and a tax cut for the workers, leader Oriol Junqueras said at press conference in Barcelona today. Austerity is a mistake,” Junqueras said. “We insist on the need for a change in the budget policies.
  • Italian Consumer Confidence Falls to Record Low on Recession. Italian consumer confidence fell to a record low this month as households grew more pessimistic about the economic outlook after the country’s fourth recession since 2001 entered its second year. The confidence index fell to 84.8, the lowest since the series begin in 1996, from a revised 86.2 in October, the national statistics office, Istat, said in Rome today. The reading was lower than the median forecast of 86.3 in a survey of 13 economists by Bloomberg News.
  • Goldman Turns Down Southern Europe Banks as Crisis LingersGoldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS), the No. 1 stock underwriter in Europe, turned down roles in offerings by banks in Spain and Italy this year, the only top U.S. securities firm not to take part in the fundraisings by southern European lenders as the region’s debt crisis stretches to a fourth year.
  • European Stocks Decline as Ministers Debate Greek Rescue. European stocks declined, following the benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Index’s biggest weekly rally this year, as euro-area finance ministers met for a third time this month on Greece’s finances. Barclays Plc (BARC) dropped the most in almost five months as Qatar Holding LLC disposed of its remaining warrants in the U.K. lender. ThyssenKrupp AG (TKA) slid 5.1 percent after Credit Suisse Group AG lowered its recommendation on Germany’s largest steelmaker. 
  • China Starts Dumping Probe on U.S., European Polysilicon. The Chinese government started investigating whether foreign suppliers of polysilicon are selling below cost in China, the world’s biggest consumer of the raw material used in making solar-energy devices. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce said it will determine if retroactive duties, or penalties, should be imposed on the suppliers from the U.S., the European Union and South Korea. It will also probe whether the U.S. and EU are subsidizing makers of the silicon-based commodity, according to a statement today. China is expanding the trade disagreement between the world’s biggest economies as the global solar-energy industry grapples with overcapacity, lower prices and declining profits.
  • China Blames Fed’s QE Policy for High Currency Volatility. China says the U.S. program of asset-purchases known as quantitative easing is increasing the volatility of emerging-market currencies. The Asian nation and many others have criticized “this irresponsible and beggar-thy-neighbor policy” because it has a “lingering negative impact on developing, emerging economies in particular,” Zhu Hong, China’s deputy permanent representative to the World Trade Organization, said in meeting today in Geneva, according to a statement issued afterward.
Wall Street Journal: 
CNBC:
Telegraph:
  • ArcelorMittal(MT) not welcome in France anymore, says finance minister. Steel giant ArcelorMittal is not welcome in France anymore, the country's industrial minister has said, as he accused the steel giant of "not respecting France". "Mittal's lies since 2006 are damning," the French minister said, adding that the company "has never honoured its commitments" to the country. ArcelorMittal has shut down blast furnaces in Florange, eastern France, but wants to maintain its other activities there, in what has become a showdown with the new Socialist government in France. Montebourg told Les Echos he was working on a "transitory nationalisation" project for the site. The newspaper said that "the idea would be to associate an industrial operator with a minority capital stake for as long as it takes to stabilise activity" at the plant.
O Estado de S. Paulo:
  • Brazil Economic Growth Above 4% Isn't Sustainable. Growth faces difficulties due to lack of work force and infrastructure, citing a govt officials from the economic team it didn't identify.
China Daily: 
  • Abe's dangerous manifesto. When Shinzo Abe, the leader of Japan's main opposition party, talks about his vision for the country's diplomacy and security, East Asia has every reason to prick up its ears. Opinion polls in Japan suggest the Liberal Democratic Party will win the House of Representatives election on Dec 16, positioning Abe to become the next prime minister.