Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.60%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Steel -2.82% 2) Coal -2.43% 3) Gaming -2.21%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• ACO, WPPGY, PSO, DANG, CRTO, UL, CAF, NCIT, VHC, AERI, DL, ZU, WUBA, HMC, SNP, MXWL, PTR, PWRD, NLNK, CSV, DB, BCS, ARII, BIB, FICO and OSIR

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) JRCC 2) JWN 3) AKS 4) URBN 5) IBB
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) FCX 2) UAL 3) CLF 4) DHI 5) MTH
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.62%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) HMOs -.13% 2) Gold & Silver -.20% 3) Biotech -.21%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• HYGS, CQB, MONT, CACQ, FMC, EJ, VECO, HIMX, ALJ and ALXN

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) PLUG 2) FCEL 3) RBCN 4) NWBO 5) PVA

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) ALXN 2) ADM 3) HLF 4) JBLU 5) BIG
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines 
Bloomberg:

• Pro-Russia Forces Occupy Ukraine as Separatist Vote Looms. Pro-Russian forces advanced in Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula, ignoring Western calls to halt a military takeover before the region’s separatist referendum. Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk said today he’d travel to Washington on March 12 as Russian President Vladimir Putin defended the actions of Crimea’s local government, which may use the March 16 vote to leave Ukraine and join the country’s Soviet-era master. Russian troops detained Ukrainian border guards at a base a day after gunmen fired warning shots at international observers and barred them from Crimea.

• Crimea Takeover Builds to Expose Ukraine Escalation Risk. Russian President Vladimir Putin is showing no signs of heeding Western calls to ease the standoff in Crimea, where pro-Kremlin forces stepped up their takeover of the Ukrainian region preparing for a separatist referendum. Gunmen fired warning shots as international observers tried to enter Crimea for a third day and a Ukrainian border patrol plane came under fire that didn’t cause injuries. TV5 reported that a military agency in the regional capital Simferopol was captured, and 70 unidentified trucks entered the city. 

• Bank of China Supervisor Says Country Should Allow More Defaults. China should allow companies to default on their bonds, an external supervisor at the Bank of China said today, after a solar-cell maker couldn’t repay full interest on its debt. “We need to be more accepting and allow such defaults to happen,” Mei Xingbao told reporters during a meeting of the Chinese People’s Consultative Conference in Beijing. “The debtor must be responsible for his own debt. He must tell the investors that there is risk involved in the product.” Mei’s remarks offer add to indications that China’s Communist Party leaders will allow more debt to go bad rather than intervening to bail out investors. The party agreed last year to let markets to play a more decisive role in the economy. 

• Li Target Challenged by China Exports, Producer Prices. China’s biggest drop in exports since 2009 and deepening factory-gate deflation highlight the challenges for Premier Li Keqiang in achieving this year’s economic-growth target of 7.5 percent. Overseas shipments unexpectedly declined 18.1 percent in February from a year earlier, customs data showed March 8, compared with analysts’ median estimate for a 7.5 percent increase. Producer prices fell 2 percent, the most since July, according to a statistics bureau report yesterday, extending the longest decline since 1999.

• Developers Slump as Yuan Drop Closing Fund Window: China Credit. Volatility in the yuan is raising dollar borrowing costs for Chinese developers already choked by a domestic property-market crackdown and slowing sales. 

• China Pays Environmental Price for Growth, Minister Says. China is paying a heavy environmental price for growth in gross domestic product and leaders will only solve the pollution problem if they change the country’s development model, a vice minister said. China’s efforts to protect the environment have been weakened because power is spread among too many departments, Vice Environmental Protection Minister Wu Xiaoqing told a briefing. Seventy-one of 74 Chinese cities last year failed to meet air quality standards set for them, he said. Extremely heavy pollution in late February affected 15 provinces, Wu said. “We are suffering in our pursuit of GDP growth,” Wu said at the briefing today during the annual session of the National People’s Congress in Beijing. “Our GDP needs to make a contribution to solving our environmental pollution problems.” 

• China Stocks Fall With Yuan After Exports Decline. China’s stocks fell, sending the benchmark index to the lowest level in seven weeks, and the yuan weakened as an unexpected plunge in exports spurred concern that the world’s second-largest economy is slowing. The Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) slid 1.7 percent to 2,023.22 at the 11:30 a.m. break, set for the lowest close since Jan. 21, as Jiangxi Copper Co. and China Southern Airlines Co. retreated. The yuan fell as much as 0.5 percent against the dollar, which would be the steepest decline on a closing basis since December 2008, before paring its drop to 0.2 percent. Money-market rates slumped to a 21-month low amid speculation demand for cash is diminishing as economic growth weakens.

• Copper Slips With Asian Stocks on China; Ringgit Weakens. Copper futures slid with Asian stocks and emerging-market currencies as weaker-than-estimated Chinese data stoked concern over the outlook for the world’s second-largest economy. U.S. index futures dropped as crude oil and corn fell while gold led a retreat in precious metals. Copper futures on the Comex sank 1.9 percent by 9:59 a.m. in Tokyo to $3.0255 a pound, after touching the lowest level since June. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 0.4 percent as stock gauges from Japan to Australia slipped. 

• Coutts Adds Gold as Demand in China Climbs With Ukraine Risk. Coutts & Co. is adding gold for investors as rising wealth in China and increasing political risks including in Ukraine spur demand, helping prices rally from the biggest annual decline in more than three decades. The private-banking division of Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc holds 3 percent to 4 percent in its portfolios, from 1 percent to 2 percent last year, said Gary Dugan, chief investment officer for Asia and the Middle East. Coutts had 29.7 billion pounds ($49.7 billion) under management as of Dec. 31.

• Forward Guidance Risks Stoking Instability, BIS Says. Central banks employing forward guidance risk creating financial instability by revising the policy or keeping borrowing costs low for too long, according to economists at the Bank for International Settlements. As they seek to foster economic growth, the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan have pledged to hold down interest rates to spur lending to households and businesses. Evidence on the effectiveness of the policies is mixed, meaning no firm conclusions can be drawn about their ultimate value, Andrew Filardo and Boris Hofmann argued in a paper published today in the BIS Quarterly Review.

• ‘Mom, I’m Scared’ as Childhood Traumas Compound Syrian War Cost. At 4 years old, Edmond Michael Abdel-Nour can distinguish the sound of a bullet from that of a mortar hitting his Damascus neighborhood. A toddler when the conflict in Syria began, Abdel-Nour has lived through war for most of his life, learning to correctly identify an outgoing shell from an incoming one before he’s even managed to master the alphabet.

Wall Street Journal:

• Ukraine Icon Calls for More Help From West. Former Prime Minister Tymoshenko Warns Against 'Referendum Under Kalashnikovs' as She Mixes With Foreign Leaders. Marco Rubio to Lay Out Ideas for Juicing Economy

• Marco Rubio to Lay Out Ideas for Juicing Economy. Republican to Propose Using Trade, Research and Energy to Spur Growth in Monday Speech.

• RBC Ruling Strikes a Blow to Deal-Making Banks.

MarketWatch.com:

• Stock caution urged as margin debt levels hit new highs. (graph) P/E valuations, record highs flash warnings; stock pickers look for quality, value. 

Fox News:  

• Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 mystery: Jet's door may have been found, officials say. Vietnamese aircraft spotted what they suspected was one of the doors belonging to the ill-fated Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 on Sunday, as troubling questions emerged about how two passengers managed to board the Boeing 777 using stolen passports. The discovery comes as officials consider the possibility that the plane disintegrated mid-flight, a senior source told Reuters. 

• ObamaCare will hasten income inequality, union report says.

CNBC:

• Perfect storm for inflation could rock the market. As investors cheer the good news for job growth that came with the February employment report, they may be overlooking a troublesome dynamic: A tightening jobs market, in combination with rising commodity costs, could stir inflation, cutting into corporate profits and forcing the Federal Reserve to become more hawkish.

Zero Hedge:

• Ukraine's Military Mobilizes, Prepares For Combat: Trucks, APCs, SAMs, Howitzers, Tanks Rolling Out.

• Warning Shots Fired At OSCE Mission In Crimea; Russia Threatens Treaty Force Majeure Over "Unfriendly NATO Threats".

• Chinese Exports Collapse Leading To 2nd Largest Trade Deficit On Record. (graph)

• Student And Car Loans Account For 102% Of All New February Consumer Credit. (graph)

• Has This Chart "Reached A Permanently High Plateau"? (graph)

• 5 Things To Ponder: Serious Stuff.

• Five Years Of "Progress". (graph)

• The Demise Of The American Dream (In 2 Charts).

• "When Does The Party End?”" - Goldman Finds Revenue Multiples Have Never Been Higher.

• US Probes Terrorist Concerns Over 'Missing' Malaysian Airlines Jet.

• India Backs Russia's "Legitimate Interests" In Ukraine.

• Another East-Ukraine City Falls To Pro-Russian Protesters As Ukraine Denies Sending Troops To Crimea. 

• Global Debt Crosses $100 Trillion, Rises By $30 Trillion Since 2007; $27 Trillion Is "Foreign-Held".

• Japan Scrambles Jets In Response To Chinese Military Planes.

• Prem Watsa's 9 Observations Why There Is A "Monstrous Real Estate Bubble In China Which Could Burst Anytime".

• Yen Carry Slides In Early Pre-Open Trading.

• Abenomics Crucified With Lowest GDP Since Abe, Worst Current Account Deficit On Record. (graph)

Business Insider:

• The Crisis In Ukraine Has Much Deeper And Darker Roots Than Many Realize. 

• Why Crimea Is So Valuable To Russia.

• Julian Assange Claims Complete Worldwide Surveillance Only 'A Few Years' Away.

• Libya Threatens To Bomb North Korean Tanker If It Ships Oil From Seized Port.

• Warning Shots Fired At International Monitors Turned Away From Crimea.

• US Tech Company Had 20 Employees On Missing Malaysia Airlines Flight.

• MORGAN STANLEY(MS): The Treasury Market Is In Trouble.

• Russian Forces Tighten Grip On Crimea.

• IBM(IBM) Factory Strike Shows Shifting China Labor Landscape.

• The 'Hidden Debts' Of Russia And Ukraine That Could Make Them More Exposed Than Any Other Country In The World.

• Copper Tumbles As Concerns About China Mount.

Forbes:

• Whistling Past The Graveyard After China's 1st Ever Bond Default. China, in recent years, has created too much indebtedness too fast.  Chaori’s default on Friday is a warning of what will inevitably occur next.

Reuters:

• Suicide bomber kills 45 in Iraqi city of Hilla. A suicide bomber driving a minibus packed with explosives killed at least 45 people and wounded 157 on Sunday in the southern Iraqi city of Hilla, police and medical sources said. The attacker approached a main checkpoint at a northern entrance to the largely Shi'ite Muslim city and detonated the minibus, a police officer said on condition of anonymity.

Financial Times:

• Klarman warns of impending asset price bubble. One of the world’s most respected investors has raised the alarm over a looming asset price bubble, calling out “nosebleed valuations” in technology shares like Netflix and Tesla Motors and warning of the potential for a brutal correction across financial markets. Seth Klarman, the publicity shy head of the $27bn Baupost Group whose investment opinions have attracted a near cult-like following, said that investors were underplaying risk and were not prepared for an end to central banks reversing a five-year experiment in ultra-loose money.

• Interpol sounds alarm on passenger checks.

Telegraph:

• George Soros blasts 'parasite' banks. George Soros, the billionaire investor, has warned that little has changed in the 'parasite' banking sector since the 2008 crisis.

Nikkei:

• Japan's Taxation Panel May Raise Dividend Taxes. A taxation panel advising Japan's government will consider raising the tax rate on dividends to offset the cost of reducing corporate taxes. Panel also considering tax increase on stock sales. Panel meeting scheduled for March 12.

Shanghai Morning Post:

• Analysts warn on home price volatility in other Chinese free-trade zones. Analysts warn against repeat of volatility as interest in property investment in zone fades.

People's Daily:

• China Congress Drafting Law for Property Taxes. Relevant agencies in the National People's Congress and the State Council are drafting legislation for a property tax, citing Kan Ke, deputy director of the Commission for Legislative Affairs of the Standing Committee of the NPC.

China Securities Journal:

• China 2014 Growth Target Won't be Easy to Achieve. It won't be easy for China to achieve the 7.5% economic growth target of this year, according to a commentary written by reporter Gu Xin.

Weekend Recommendations

Barron's:

• Bullish commentary on (MET), (FAST) and (NVR).

• Bearish commentary on (DDD), (SSYS), (XONE) and (VJET).

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -1.50% to -.50% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 127.0 +2.0 basis points.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 96.0 +2.0 basis points.

• FTSE-100 futures +.03%.

• S&P 500 futures -.29%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.20%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (URBN)/.54

• (CASY)/.49

• (UNFI)/.56

Economic Releases 

• None of note

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Evans speaking, Fed's Plosser speaking, BoJ decision, USDA WASDE report, JPMorgan Aviation/Transport/Industrial Conference, CSFB Services Conference, Deutsche Bank Media/Internet/Telecom Conference and the (MT) investor day could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Stocks to Watch Monday by MarketWatch.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on Russia/Ukraine tensions, global growth worries, increasing emerging markets/European debt angst, technical selling, a stronger yen and profit-taking. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.

Market Week in Review

S&P 500 1,878.04 +1.0%*






The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 1,878.04 +1.0%

• DJIA 16,452.70 +.80%

• NASDAQ 4,336.22 +.65%

• Russell 2000 1,203.32 +1.71%

• S&P 500 High Beta 31.62 +1.48%

• Wilshire 5000 19,839.20 +1.03%

• Russell 1000 Growth 885.46 +.61%

• Russell 1000 Value 941.67 +1.30%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 436.55 +.64%

• Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,511.14 +1.54%

• Morgan Stanley Technology 938.74 +.46%

• Transports 7,592.36 +3.32%

• Utilities 514.20 -.88%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 110.60 -1.1%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 39.78 +.05%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,187.16 +.85%
• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 965.82 +.20%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 210,205 +.42%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 1,057 +599

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 22.86 +77.21%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 425,818 +2.25%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,687,807 +2.67%

• Total Put/Call .82 unch.

• OEX Put/Call 1.63 +108.97%

• ISE Sentiment 109.0 -.91%

• NYSE Arms .92 -14.02%

• Volatility(VIX) 14.11 +.79%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 54.14 -.48%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.36 -2.65%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.67 -.91%

• Smart Money Flow Index 11,883.81 +.38%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.680 Trillion -.15%
• ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow $3.113 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 40.5 +2.1%

• AAII % Bears 26.6 +26.0%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 307.19 +1.58%

• Crude Oil 102.58 -.18%

• Reformulated Gasoline 297.38 -.24%

• Natural Gas 4.62 +.39%

• Heating Oil 301.21 -2.14%

• Gold 1,338.20 +.72%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 189.35 -.93%

• Copper 305.25 -4.64%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 374.33 USD/Ton unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 114.20 USD/Ton -3.30%

• Lumber 358.60 +2.14%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,516.71 +3.81%

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 1.9% +20 basis points

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.1898 +14.58%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 120.93 +.12%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -31.20 -17.8 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 14.30 +1.8 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 32.0% chance of no change, 68.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 3/19

• US Dollar Index 79.72 -.07%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 149.49 +1.99%

• Yield Curve 242.0 +9 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.79% +14 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.129 Trillion +.28%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 27.13 +.35%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 142.0 -.97%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 46.0 -13.2%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 96.06 -4.90%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 284.34 +7.14%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 91.0 unch.

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 63.0 -3.82%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 355.45 -2.60%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.23% +5 basis points

• TED Spread 19.0 unch.

• 2-Year Swap Spread 13.75 +.75 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.75 +3.25 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 62.93 -.36%
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 85.88 -.71%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 310.33 +1.47%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 96.0 +7.5 basis points

• M1 Money Supply $2.712 Trillion +.55%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,028.40 +1.6%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 336,500 -1,800

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.2% -10 basis points

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.28% -9 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 381.40 +9.44%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort -28.5 +.1 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +2.9% -10 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $3.48/gallon +.03/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,480 +17.65%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,086.78 -2.55%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 30.0 -7.69%

• Rail Freight Carloads 257,710 +1.7%

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth +1.7%

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth +.6%

Leading Sectors

• Road & Rail +3.9%

• Banks +3.4%

• Agriculture +3.0%

• Tobacco +2.5%

• Insurance +2.5%

Lagging Sectors

• Biotech -2.0% 

• Homebuilders -2.3%

• Hospitals -2.6%

• Oil Tankers -2.8%

• Steel -4.0%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (26)

• MXWL, CANN, SRNE, CARA, WG, SGMO, THRM, SWHC, HA, HZO, AVAV, COKE, UVE, CALM, SWC, FRED, DEPO, AIR, NKTR, UIHC, KR, LO, IRG, OVTI, RAI and INSY

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (29)

• VEEV, BOBE, OSIR, PTLA, BCC, ASNA, RTI, MGRC, TCRD, RNG, NMBL, PLCE, NOG, HPTX, HSC, RATE, DECK, KBR, RGEN, UIL, AKRX, SPLS, GEVA, EPAM, MDVN, PRO, APEI, HCI and ELGX

Weekly Charts
ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change