Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.62%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Computer Hardware +1.22% 2) I-Banks +1.19% 3) HMOs +1.08%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• JASO, STAA, MOBI, KNDI, LPL, HTZ, SINA, IRBT, SC, ISIS, UCTT, CODE, EGHT and PTEN

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ASH 2) RPTP 3) MEET 4) NCR 5) SWC

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) AGU 2) T 3) REGN 4) GOOG 5) TWTR
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines 
Bloomberg:

• West Warns Russia Not to Annex Crimea After Referendum. The U.S. and the European Union warned Russia not to annex Crimea after a referendum in Ukraine’s southern region, setting the stage for sanctions on Russia in the worst diplomatic standoff since the Cold War. A total of 95.5 percent of voters in Black Sea peninsula backed leaving Ukraine to join Russia in the referendum, preliminary results show. The Ukrainian government, the EU and the U.S. consider the vote illegal, while Russia said it “fully met international norms.” Turnout was 82.7 percent, according the election commission. 
• Russia Facing Escalating Sanctions as EU Foreign Ministers Meet. European and U.S. officials will probably hold their most punitive sanctions on Russia in reserve as they wait for President Vladimir Putin to show his hand on whether he plans to push his forces deeper into Ukraine. EU foreign ministers due to meet in Brussels tomorrow are set to impose travel bans and asset freezes on some Russian officials as Putin’s government prepares to annex Crimea after today’s referendum on secession from Ukraine. The “additional and far-reaching consequences” that were floated by the bloc on March 6 will be held back until EU leaders meet later this week in a bid to corral Putin’s ambitions in eastern Ukraine.
• Riots Fuel Fear of Russian Provocation in Ukraine’s Second City. Police patroled Ukraine’s second-biggest city, near the Russian border, after riots last night left two people dead and an officer critically wounded. An attack late yesterday on a Ukrainian cultural organization’s office was a “well planned provocation by pro-Russian activists,” Kharkiv’s regional governor, Ihor Baluta, said today in statement on the administration’s website. A fire still smoldered this morning by the office of Prosvita, a group set up in 1868 to protect and promote Ukraine’s language, as forensics officers removed evidence. The blaze burned a smaller building in a courtyard and the offices were ransacked.
• Micex Rout Seen Worsening as ETF Shorts Grow: Russia Overnight. Russian stock traders are bracing for more losses after the benchmark index entered a bear market last week as concern mounted the country’s push to annex Ukraine’s Crimea region will lead to international sanctions. Wagers that the Market Vectors Russia (RSX:US) exchange-traded fund will decline in New York trading reached a 22-month high after the Micex Index (INDEXCF) fell 7.6 percent in Moscow last week, extending its rout this month to 14 percent. Open interest on put options giving investors the right to sell the ETF reached about 283,000 on March 13, almost double the four-week average and up from a 2014 low of 54,000 in January, data compiled by Bloomberg show. 
• Yuan Volatility Climbs to 18-Month High as Trading Band Doubles. A gauge of expected price swings in China’s yuan climbed to an 18-month high and the offshore exchange rate weakened as the central bank doubled the currency’s trading limits versus the dollar. One-month implied volatility, which is used to price options, rose 29 basis points, or 0.29 percentage point, to 2.72 percent as of 8:22 a.m. in Hong Kong, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It touched 2.73 percent, the highest since September 2012. The offshore yuan weakened 0.11 percent to 6.1623 per dollar and reached the lowest intra-day level since May. The People’s Bank of China will announce the daily reference rate at around 9:15 a.m, while the yuan in Shanghai will start trading at 9:30 a.m.
• Twin-Deficit Risk Looms for MOF as Yield Jump Seen: Japan Credit. Japan's Ministry of Finance is flagging the risk of twin current-account and fiscal deficits for the first time in at least three decades, just as faster inflation threatens to drive up bond yields. The shortfall in the broadest measure of trade widened almost fivefold in January from a year earlier and the ministry said in a March 10 paper that export deficits could eventually overwhelm income from overseas investments. While Bank of Japan stimulus has weakened the yen by 6.9 percent in the past year against its peers, it hasn't helped the nation's overseas sales enough to offset swelling import costs. "If a current-account shortfall becomes the trend, Japan's fiscal deficits will draw attention and threaten to spur a jump in yields amid capital flight," said Hidenori Suezawa, an SMBC Nikko Securities Inc. analyst who is a member of a MOF advisory panel on government finances. "Such a risk will increase from 2015 onwards."
• ECB Data Demands Called Excessive by Banks Facing Asset Review. Euro-area banks urged the European Central Bank to reduce the information they have to provide as part of a review of their balance sheets because they say the demands are excessive. European Banking Federation Chief Executive Officer Guido Ravoet wrote to the ECB yesterday, asking it to consider “substantially simplifying” the template for part of the Asset Quality Review. In the letter, which was obtained by Bloomberg News, the EBF also said that some of the data sought is not useful. A spokeswoman for the ECB couldn’t immediately confirm that the letter had been received. 
• Nigerian Troops Battle Islamist Insurgents in Northeast City. Nigerian troops repelled an attack by Boko Haram insurgents attempting to free fellow Islamists at an army detention center in the northeastern city of Maiduguri. Soldiers fought with rebels remaining after an attack on the Giwa Barracks in Maiduguri yesterday, killing and arresting some of them, Major-General Chris Olukolade said today in an e-mailed statement. One soldier died, while a “massive armory” used by Boko Haram around the Lake Chad region was captured, Olukolade said. 
• Asian Stocks Slip on Crimea Vote as Gold to Silver Climb. Asian stocks fell, extending the regional index’s steepest weekly slump since 2012, as western nations disputed Crimea’s vote to rejoin Russia and China eased control over the yuan. Gold drove an advance in precious metals while the yen maintained gains against the dollar. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 0.2 percent by 9:45 a.m. in Tokyo, extending last week’s worst weekly decline since May 2012. Japan’s Topix Index dropped 0.4 percent.
• Copper Trades Near 2010 Low as China Widens Yuan Trading Band. Copper in London traded near a 44-month low as China doubled the yuan’s trading limits versus the dollar. The metal for delivery in three months was little changed at $6,466.75 a metric ton at 10:39 a.m. in Hong Kong after rising as much as 0.3 percent and falling as much as 0.4 percent. The contract closed at $6,415 on March 13, the lowest since July 2010.
• Speculators See Gold Gaining With Wheat on Ukraine: Commodities. After shunning gold and wheat for most of last year, hedge fund managers are piling back in as the escalating crisis in Ukraine spurs a rebound in the prices of both commodities. Speculators have the biggest bet on a gold rally since December 2012 and turned bullish on wheat for the first time since November, government data show. Bullion last week reached a six-month high and wheat entered a bull market as Crimea prepared for a referendum. A majority in the disputed vote March 16 chose to leave Ukraine and join Russia, exit polls showed.

Wall Street Journal:

• Crisis in Ukraine. Streaming Coverage:
• Malaysia Airlines Flight 370. Streaming Coverage:
• Adjustable-Rate Mortgages Make a Comeback. Mortgages Whose Rates Can Climb Resurge in Popularity.
• Fresh Corporate Debt Sparks a Feeding Frenzy. Buyers of Recent Deals Able to Flip Bonds for Quick Profits.
• The Hidden Rot in the Jobs Numbers. Hours worked are declining, resulting in the equivalent of a net loss of 100,000 jobs since September.

Fox News:

• Malaysia Airlines flight search: Authorities probe whether pilot's 'obsessive' political views played role in disappearance. Focus on the investigation into the fate of the missing Malaysia Airlines jet remained on the pilots Sunday, as speculation arose over whether one of the men flying the plane could have hijacked it in an anti-government protest.

CNBC:

• E-commerce giant Alibaba starts plan for US IPO.

Zero Hedge:

• China's Credit Nightmare Explained In One Chart. (graph)
• US Drone "Intercepted" Over Crimea By Russian 'Self-Defense' Forces.
• It Has Been A Horrible Week For The Secretariat Of State.
• 5 Things To Ponder: Macro Investing Thoughts.
• US Issues Travel Alert For Russia, Warns Of "Potential Military Clashes (Either Accidental Or Intentional)".
• The Tanks Are Coming While Russia, US "Remain At Odds" Over Ukraine.
• Distorted Markets & Disillusionment One Asset At A Time.
• 19 Signs That The U.S. Consumer Is Tapped Out.
• Blackstone's(BX) Home Buying Binge Drops 70% From Its Peak Last Year.
• China Widens Dollar Trading Band From 1% To 2%, Yuan Volatility Set To Spike.
• Ukraine Says It Has Repelled A Russian Army "Invasion".
• The Fed is Fighting the Wrong Battle Again… And Creating Yet Another Crisis.
• If You Are Considering Buying A House, Read This First.
• Every Chart You Should Be Tracking But Were Too Afraid To Find.
• Maduro Warns Venezuelan Protesters "We Are Coming For You"; Calls John Kerry A "Murderer".
• "Obama Did Not Attend The Meeting", Or In A Moment Of Crisis The President Stands Resolute.
• The Failure of Keynesianism.
• BofA Warns: VIX Spells Trouble. (graph)
• How To Create A Manufacturing Renaissance - Change The Definition. (graph)
• Bulls, Bears, And Bias (In 5 Simple Charts).

 ValueWalk:

• Russell 2000 S&P 500 Valuation Differential At Record Level.

 Business Insider: 

• Crimea's Deputy Prime Minister Made A Troubling Prediction About What Happens Next.
• 3 Reasons Why Bitcoin Isn't The New Gold.
• 6 Russian Combat Planes Armed With Live Missiles Deployed To Belarus.
• We Can't Rule Out The Worst-Case Scenario For Russian Stocks.
• Malaysian PM: Diversion And Communications Shutdown 'Consistent With Deliberate Action By Someone On The Plane'.
• GRANTHAM: Stocks Are 65% Overpriced, But They're Not A Bubble.
• MAP: Here's Why Ukraine Fears A Russian Invasion.
• What Could Have Happened To Flight MH370? 
• This Russian Exclave Has Poland Worried About What Putin Will Do Next.
• 11 Ugly Charts That Confirm China's Dramatic Slowdown.
• US Official: Iran Is Pursuing Banned Items For Nuclear And Missile Work. 

Wall Street All-Stars:

• Indicator Update: Yellen Takes the Stage.

Yahoo Finance:

• This chart says it's about to get worse for China: Yamada.

AFP:

• State TV says Russia could turn US to 'radioactive ash'. A leading anchor on Russian state television on Sunday described Russia as the only country capable of turning the United States into "radioactive ash", in an incendiary comment at the height of tensions over the Crimea referendum. "Russia is the only country in the world realistically capable of turning the United States into radioactive ash," anchor Dmitry Kiselyov said on his weekly news show on state-controlled Rossiya 1 television.

Telegraph:

• China’s debt defaults to hit industrial metals as trading unravels. All the warning signals are now pointing to a continuing slide in prices as the full extent of China’s economic problems emerges and bearish sentiment grips the large commodity trading houses.

 People's Daily: 

• China to Control Population of 'Super Large' Cities. China will strictly control population of large cities with population of more than 5m, according to the text of China's 2014-202 urbanization plan.

Weekend Recommendations 

Barron's:

• Bullish commentary on (AEM), (CQB), (PX), (FEIC), (RHT) and (EMC).
• Bearish commentary on (MATX) and (MW).

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 135.50 +1.0 basis point.
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 101.75 -.5 basis point.
• FTSE-100 futures -.04%.
• S&P 500 futures +.03%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.01%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• None of note

Economic Releases 
8:30 am EST

• Empire Manufacturing for March is estimated to rise to 7.0 versus 4.48 in February.

 9:00 am EST

•  Net Long-Term TIC Flows for January are estimated at $30.0B versus -$45.9B in December.

9:15 am EST

• Industrial Production for February is estimated to rise +.2% versus a -.3% decline in January.
• Capacity Utilization for February is estimated to rise to 78.6% versus 78.5% in January.
• Manufacturing Production for February is estimated to rise +.3% versus a -.8% decline in January.
  

10:00 am EST

• The NAHB Housing Market Index for March is estimated to rise to 50 versus 46 in February.
  

Upcoming Splits

• (WLK) 2-for-1

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone CPI, China property price report and the BofA Smid-Cap Conference could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

U.S. Week Ahead by MarketWatch (audio). 
Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Stocks to Watch Monday by MarketWatch.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on Russia/Ukraine tensions, rising global growth fears, increasing emerging markets/European debt angst, technical selling, a stronger yen and profit-taking. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.

Market Week in Review

S&P 500 1,841.13 -1.97%*







The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 1,841.13 -1.97%

• DJIA 16,065.60 -2.35%

• NASDAQ 4,245.39 -2.1%

• Russell 2000 1,181.41 -1.82%

• S&P 500 High Beta 30.67 -3.0%

• Wilshire 5000 19,454.20 -1.94%

• Russell 1000 Growth 867.23 -2.06%

• Russell 1000 Value 924.58 -1.81%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 434.89 -.38%

• Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,466.39 -2.96%

• Morgan Stanley Technology 913.21 -2.72%

• Transports 7,475.79 -1.53%

• Utilities 522.29 +1.57%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 105.72 -4.41%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 38.65 -2.84%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,183.64 -.30%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 963.10 -.28%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 207,945 -1.31%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 87 -970

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 19.23 -15.88%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 406,832 -4.46%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,697,240 +.56%

• Total Put/Call .77 -6.10%

• OEX Put/Call .92 -43.56%

• ISE Sentiment 80.0 -26.61%

• NYSE Arms 1.53 +66.3%

• Volatility(VIX) 17.82 +26.29%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 59.02 +9.01%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.58 +3.13%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 9.09 +4.84%

• Smart Money Flow Index 11,605.73 -2.15%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.678 Trillion -.08%

• ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow $1.945 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 41.3 +2.0%
• AAII % Bears 26.8 +.7%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 302.88 -1.40%

• Crude Oil 98.89 -3.69%

• Reformulated Gasoline 296.40 +.56%

• Natural Gas 4.42 -4.34%

• Heating Oil 294.31 -1.97%

• Gold 1,379.0 +2.95%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 182.09 -3.83%

• Copper 295.05 -4.34%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 372.93 USD/Ton -.37%

• China Iron Ore Spot 110.10 USD/Ton -3.59%

• Lumber 340.50 -5.05%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,498.39 -1.21%

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 2.3% +40 basis points

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.1865 +12.65%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 121.12 +.16%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -32.70 -1.5 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -8.0 -22.3 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 32.0% chance of no change, 68.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 3/19

• US Dollar Index 79.41 -.36%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 147.11 -1.59%

• Yield Curve 231.0 -11 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.65% -14 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.138 Trillion +.23%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 26.18 -3.47%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 139.0 -2.11%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 48.0 +4.34%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 101.83 +6.0%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 304.97 +7.26%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 89.69 -1.44%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 278.15 +28.51%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 379.16 +6.67%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.18% -5 basis points

• TED Spread 19.0 unch.

• 2-Year Swap Spread 14.25 +.5 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.25 -2.5 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 66.90 +6.32%
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 94.21 +9.71%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 328.60 +5.89%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 96.0 unch.

• M1 Money Supply $2.815 Trillion +3.82%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,021.0 -.70%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 330,500 -6,000

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.2% unch.

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.37% +9 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 373.30 -2.12%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort -27.6 +.9 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +2.5% -40 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $3.51/gallon +.03/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,468 -4.86%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,075.41 -1.05%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 30.0 unch.

• Rail Freight Carloads 244,015 -5.31%

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value -1.2%

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth -2.4%

Leading Sectors

• Gold & Silver +5.5%

• Utilities +1.6%

• Restaurants +.5%

• REITs +.1%

• Tobacco -.4%

Lagging Sectors

• Coal -4.9% 

• Alt Energy -5.3%

• Homebuilders -5.5%

• Gaming -5.9%

• Hospitals -6.2%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (8)

• RGDO, RCAP, EPL, BYD, PAY, NMIH, CACQ and HRG

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (8)

• OUTR, ESPR, FEYE, BNFT, AEO, CSV, EXPR and CUDA

Weekly Charts
ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Russia/Ukraine Tensions, Global Growth Fears, Emerging Markets/European Debt Angst, Healthcare/Homebuilding Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.42 +7.46%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 146.93 -.23%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.09 +9.68%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 59.17 +3.88%

• ISE Sentiment Index 92.0 +26.03%

• Total Put/Call .71 -31.73%

• NYSE Arms 1.33 -44.64% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 67.35 -.40%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 94.84 -.66%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 50.01 +2.04%
• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 102.34 +.20%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 328.95 +.54%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 379.16 +1.88%
• 2-Year Swap Spread 14.25 unch.

• TED Spread 19.5 +.25 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.25 +.5 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% unch.

• Yield Curve 230.0 -1.0 basis point

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $110.10/Metric Tonne -1.26%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -32.70 -2.6 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -8.0 -5.8 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.18 +1.0 basis point

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating -120 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating -23 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech sector longs and emerging markets shorts

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 25% Net Long