Tuesday, April 08, 2014

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
  • Russia Warns Ukraine on Military Action in Eastern Region. Ukrainian authorities sent security forces to Kharkiv to clear the country’s second-biggest city of separatists as Russia traded accusations with the U.S. and warned that its neighbor’s crackdown risks sparking civil war. An “anti-terrorist operation” was under way in Kharkiv, with the subway closed and the downtown area sealed off in Ukraine’s second-biggest city, Interior Minister Arsen Avakov said on his Facebook page. Russia said 150 specialists from a U.S. private security company were working with Ukraine to put down protests, the Foreign Ministry said after the U.S. accused Russia of instigating unrest in the country’s eastern regions. “We call for the immediate halt of all military preparations, which risk sparking a civil war,” the ministry in Moscow said in a website statement.
  • Ukraine Mounts Security Push as Russia Warns on Civil War. Ukrainian authorities sent security forces to Kharkiv to clear the country’s second-biggest city of separatists as U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry accused Russia of using “special forces and agents” to spark unrest. An “anti-terrorist operation” was under way in Kharkiv, 40 kilometers (25 miles) from the Russian border, with the subway closed and the center sealed off, Interior Minister Arsen Avakov said today. The Russian government said its neighbor’s crackdown risks sparking civil war. “Provocateurs have been sent there to create chaos,” Kerry told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee in Washington. “These efforts are as ham-handed as they are transparent,” Kerry said. He accused Russia of working to “create a contrived crisis with paid operatives across an international boundary.”   
  • European Stocks Drop for Second Day Amid Ukraine Tensions. European stocks declined for a second day as investors weighed escalating tensions between America and Russia over the future of eastern Europe. Suedzucker AG plunged the most since at least 1998 after saying revenue and profit in the year through February 2015 will miss analysts’ estimates. Sports Direct International Plc slid the most this year after founder Mike Ashley sold a 4 percent stake. Nokia (NOK1V) Oyj climbed the most since October after getting China’s approval for the sale of its handsets business to Microsoft Corp. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index slipped 0.3 percent to 333.85 at the close of trading in London, after earlier declining as much as 1 percent.
  • WTI Oil Gains on Cushing Supply Outlook. WTI for May delivery climbed $1.76, or 1.8 percent, to $102.20 a barrel at 1:24 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices are up 3.8 percent this year. The volume of all futures traded was 42 percent above the 100-day average.
  • U.S. Banks to Face Tougher Leverage Caps Than Competitors. The biggest U.S. banks will face greater restrictions on borrowing power than their overseas competitors under supplemental leverage ratio rules set to be adopted by regulators in Washington today. Eight lenders, including JPMorgan Chase (JPM) & Co. and Bank of America Corp., are going to be required to keep loss-absorbing capital at least 5 percent of total assets under the rules designed to curtail risk in the financial system. The cap being approved by the Federal Reserve, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency surpasses the 3 percent minimum set in a global agreement by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision.
  • VIX Jumps 19% as Losses Worsen Below Surface of S&P 500: Options. While two weeks of selling look like a blip on a chart of the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX), for the average investor it’s been a lot more painful. Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN), Whole Foods Market Inc. and Transocean Ltd. are among 43 companies that have lost more than 20 percent from their 52-week high, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The average stock is down 9 percent from its most recent peak, according to Bespoke Investment Group LLC. Concern that the drop will worsen pushed the VIX (VIX) to its biggest gain in three weeks.
  • Biotech Suffers Record Exit at Largest ETF Signaling Turn. Investors pulled a record $372 million from the biggest biotechnology exchange traded fund in its worst day of redemptions ever. The withdrawals from the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF on April 4 were the most since its 2001 inception, with 7.5 percent of the fund’s $4.98 billion in total assets leaving what is the biggest biotech-focused ETF, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It follows a lengthy run-up in biotechnology industry stocks.
  • Goldman(GS) Strategist Sees High Chance of 10% Market Drop. Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s David Kostin has some good news, and some bad news. First, the bad news. There’s a good chance the U.S. market will see a 10 percent drop sometime during the next 12 months. Well, as far as precision goes, “good chance” is not good enough for a quant like Kostin, so he gives an exact probability: 67 percent odds of a 10 percent retreat from a peak in the next 12 months. Now for the good news, if you can call it that: He still expects the market to end the year higher, though not by much. Kostin is sticking with his year-end S&P 500 forecast of 1,900, according to a note to clients dated yesterday. That implies a gain of less than 2.8 percent for the year and less than 3 percent from yesterday’s close.
Barron's:
Wall Street Journal: 
CNBC:
ZeroHedge:
ValueWalk:
Business Insider:
Reuters:
  • U.S. to trim air, sea and land nuke launchers under U.S.-Russia treaty -officials. The United States will scale back its land, sea and air nuclear missile launchers under a New START treaty with Russia but not retire a ballistic missile squadron as some lawmakers had expected, U.S. officials told Reuters. The U.S. military will disable four missile launch tubes on each of its 14 U.S. nuclear submarines, convert 30 B-52 nuclear bombers to conventional use and empty 50 intercontinental ballistic missile silos, senior administration officials said on condition of anonymity.
TheStreet.com:
  • JPMorgan(JPM) Sees Parallel to Subprime Bust at Regional Banks. A boom in leveraged loans issued by large and regional banks, or low-rated debt used to finance private-equity buyouts, is drawing alarming comparisons to the subprime mortgage boom in 2006 and 2007. According to one analyst, banks such as Regions Financial(RF), Fifth Third Bancorp(FITB), and Citigroup(C) are most at risk of getting caught up in the market froth.
@LOggOl: 


Economic Times:
  • China Economy Faces Downward Pressure. China's economy faces certain downward pressure, citing Zhang Liqun, a researcher with State Council's Development Research Center, as saying. Some cos. with difficulties need to go bankrupt as part of solving the problem of overcapacity, which may affect the stability of economic growth, Zhang said. Currently China should mainly rely on fiscal policy and keep monetary policy stable, citing Zhang. The report was posted on the central government's website.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Large-Cap Value +.33%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Airlines -1.0% 2) Road & Rail -.44% 3) Biotech -.42%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • GIMO, MAIN, STWD, CSOD, HMC, OHRP, MGNX, USTR, HQH, LPSN, ROVI, PBYI, ACT, ENDP, BX, DPS, SAVE, MYL, WWE, UFS, NSR, TEVA, DGI, PBYI and SPNC
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) HK 2) XLNX 3) CBS 4) FNSR 5) LOW
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) GM 2) TST 3) AMZN 4) VZ 5) USB
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Small-Cap Value +.51%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Steel +1.84% 2) Gold & Silver +1.69% 3) Internet +1.67%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • ALKS, TCK, KT, WUBA, YY, P, FEYE, KCG, YELP and BTU
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) VIAB 2) MTG 3) ACT 4) SPLK 5) HUM
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) AAPL 2) FEYE 3) BAC 4) YELP 5) GOOG
Charts:

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg:  
  • Chinese Developers Seen Facing More Challenges on Oversupply. Chinese developers will probably face more challenges this year because of an oversupply of housing in smaller cities, according to a Bloomberg News survey. Sourcing of financing, including from non-banks, will narrow, according to 26 economists and analysts surveyed from March 24 to 31. Developers in regions where the housing market slowed and access to financing shrunk face rising default risks, Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services said in a Jan. 17 report. “Oversupply remains the top concern of the real estate sector,” Qinwei Wang, London-based economist at Capital Economics Ltd., wrote in the survey. “Inventories have continued to rise, with the situation vulnerable in some third cities. Looking ahead, the increase of demand for new properties will probably be far weaker than over the last decade.”
  • Sina Tumbles on Concern Weibo’s IPO to Shrink Valuations. Sina Corp. (SINA) sank to the lowest level since June on concern the initial public offering of its Twitter-like unit will shrink its valuation. Shares of Shanghai-based Sina fell 4.9 percent to $53.59 today in New York, extending its three-day decline to 13 percent.
  • Asia Stocks Fall Second Day, Tracking U.S. Shares Lower. Asian stocks fell for a second day, following the biggest three-day rout in U.S. shares in more than two months, as investors await the conclusion of a Bank of Japan policy meeting. SoftBank Corp. declined 2.6 percent in Tokyo and Yahoo Japan Corp. fell 4.3 percent as telecommunications and technology shares extended yesterday’s losses. Samsung Electronics Co. slid 1.1 percent in Seoul after the world’s biggest maker of smartphones posted its second straight decline in quarterly profit. Australian Agricultural Co., a cattle producer, climbed 5.3 percent after Japan and Australia agreed on trade deal that will lower tariffs on beef. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined 0.6 percent to 137.69 as of 9:41 a.m. in Tokyo as all 10 industry groups on the gauge retreated, before markets open in Hong Kong and China.
Wall Street Journal: 
  • Few Rush To Hedge Against JGB Decline. For the first time in more than a decade, Japan’s bond investors have a way to hedge some risk associated with holding some of the nation’s longest government debt. The only problem? Few people are buying.
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider: 
NY Times:
  • Tech Firms May Find No-Poaching Pacts Costly. It is the talk of the Valley. A high-stakes negotiation is taking place in Silicon Valley among some of the biggest names in the industry — Apple and Google among them — over accusations that they were involved in a decade-long collusion to prevent their employees from being hired at rival companies. The employees filed a class-action suit, contending that the illegal hiring practices cost employees $9 billion in lost wages. Now the companies are locked in mediation sessions, hoping to settle the case in the next several weeks.
Reuters:
  • U.S. warns China over currency depreciation. The United States warned Beijing on Monday that the recent depreciation of the Chinese currency could raise "serious concerns" if it signaled a policy shift away from allowing market-determined exchange rates.
AP: 
Financial Times: 
  • Alternative lenders ramp up risky home loans. Hedge funds, private equity houses and other alternative lenders are making big bets on the UK housing market by backing home purchasers and developers with relatively risky short-term finance.
  • Weaker renminbi could be China’s subprime. Further fall would hit strategies based on view of ever-rising currency It is the talk of the Valley. A high-stakes negotiation is taking place in Silicon Valley among some of the biggest names in the industry — Apple and Google among them — over accusations that they were involved in a decade-long collusion to prevent their employees from being hired at rival companies. The employees filed a class-action suit, contending that the illegal hiring practices cost employees $9 billion in lost wages. Now the companies are locked in mediation sessions, hoping to settle the case in the next several weeks. 
Telegraph:
Xinhua:
  • China Won't Rely on Stimulus to Boost Economy. China won't rely on a large stimulus like the one following the 2008 global financial crisis to boost its economy after a "string of lukewarm economic indicators," according to a commentary from Xinhua News written by Zhang Zhengfu. Talk about an incoming stimulus is "misleading" and those anticipating a package will likely be "disappointed," the commentary says.
Evening Recommendations
Janney:
  • Rated (TWTR) Buy, target $55.
Bernstein:
  • Raised (EL) to Outperform, target $79.
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -1.0% to +.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 126.0 +2.0 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 89.0 -.5 basis points.
  • FTSE-100 futures -.20%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.18%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures  +.18%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (WDFC)/.68
  • (AA)/.05
Economic Releases
7:30 am EST
  • The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for March is estimated to rise to 92.5 versus 91.4 in February.
10:00 am EST
  • JOLTs Job Openings for February are estimated to rise to 4020 versus 3974 in January.

Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Plosser speaking, Fed's Kocherlakota speaking, UK Industrial Production, UK GDP, $30B 3Y T-Note auction, weekly retail sales reports, Needham Healthcare Conference and the (IHS) investor day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Monday, April 07, 2014

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Rising Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Russia/Ukraine Tensions, Margin Selling, Financial/Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 15.38 +10.17%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 147.89 +.14%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.21 -.61%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 55.63 +3.95%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 71.0 -11.25%
  • Total Put/Call 1.0 +5.26% 
  • NYSE Arms 1.15 -5.60% 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 67.97 +1.20%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 83.96 +.89%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 42.25 -2.56%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 90.70 +2.16%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 279.41 +.48%
  • China Blended Corporate Spread Index 354.14 +.83%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 13.0 +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 21.0 unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.25 -.75 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .02% unch.
  • Yield Curve 230.0 -1.0 basis point
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $117.20/Metric Tonne +1.30%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -45.90 -2.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.90 +1.0 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.13 -2.o basis points
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei Futures: Indicating -23 open in Japan
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -8 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my biotech sector longs and index hedges
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg: 
  • U.S., Ukraine Accuse Russia as Protesters Seize Offices. The U.S. joined Ukraine in accusing Russia of instigating the storming of government offices in eastern Ukraine and warned that any move by Russian forces into the area would be a “serious escalation” of the crisis. White House press secretary Jay Carney said there is evidence that some of the pro-Russian separatists who seized administration buildings in the cities of Luhansk and Donetsk aren’t locals and that some of the protesters were paid. Ukrainian officials say Russia has sent agents to foment unrest and justify carving off more of the nation. “If Russia moves into eastern Ukraine, either overtly or covertly, this would be a very serious escalation,” Carney said today in Washington. He added that there “will be costs for further transgressions” against Ukraine’s sovereignty.
  • Goldman(GS) Sees Chance to Cut Its China Junk Debt Holdings. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) says now may be a good time to cut holdings of Chinese high-yield bonds after the longest winning streak in six weeks. “Investors should use the recent rally to reduce overweight positions,” analysts led by Hong Kong-based Kenneth Ho wrote in a note dated April 4. “We believe that there will be more headlines noises to come out of China and expect to see further credit differentiation.” 
  • European Stocks Drop as Technology Shares Fall. European stocks fell from a six-year high, posting their biggest decline in a month, as shares of technology companies tumbled. Technology shares lost 2 percent, the most among 19 industry groups in the benchmark gauge, with United Internet AG falling 4.3 percent and ARM Holdings Plc dropping 2.4 percent. Osram Licht AG slid the most since it started trading after its spinoff from Siemens AG as Berenberg Bank lowered its rating. Altice SA jumped 11 percent, while Bouygues SA slumped the most since August 2012, after Vivendi SA (VIV) agreed to sell its phone unit SFR to Altice in a deal valued at more than 17 billion euros ($23.3 billion). The Stoxx 600 fell 1.2 percent to 334.96 at the close of trading.
  • Speculators Cut Bullish Oil Bets by Most in Nine Months. Fewer than three weeks into spring, oil speculators are already thinking about the summer. Hedge funds and other money managers boosted bullish wagers the most since February, betting that refineries will need to buy more crude to accelerate gasoline output before the peak U.S summer driving season. Fuel supply is already tight, with consumers paying the most at the pump in seven months. 
  • Euro Gains as ECB Signals Deflation Risk Is Contained. The euro gained against most of its major counterparts as European Central Bank policy makers signaled deflation risks are contained, subduing speculation of a round of bond-buying to boost prices and economic growth.
  • Oil Imports Seen Falling to Zero as Soon as 2037 by U.S. Net oil imports to the U.S. could fall to zero by 2037 because of robust production in areas including North Dakota’s Bakken field and Texas’s Eagle Ford formation, according to a government projection released today.
Barron's:
  • Private Equity, Hedge Funds Wary Of Marketing Via JOBS Act. Only 4% of hedge fund managers and 5% of private equity managers who responded to the survey said they have registered to market under the JOBS Act. Cost is a major factor, according to 42% of hedge fund managers and 24% of private equity firms. Other barriers named include potential conflict with the AIFMD (cited by 22% of private equity firms surveyed), increased scrutiny from the SEC (cited by 20%), and the negative perception of marketing (cited by 20%).
Wall Street Journal: 
MarketWatch: 
CNBC:
  • Housing recovery is all for the 'haves'. Demand is high, prices are higher, but the housing numbers this spring are just not adding up. Mortgage origination volumes hit their lowest recorded level since at least 2000, according to areport released Monday from Black Knight Financial Services. 
  • US SEC forms squad to examine private funds: Sources. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has put together a dedicated group to examine private equity and hedge funds, after the 2010 Dodd-Frank law required the funds to be regulated, according to people familiar with the matter. The examiners will look at areas including how private equity and hedge funds value their assets, disclose their fees, and communicate with investors.
ZeroHedge:  
ValueWalk:
Wall Street All-Stars:
Business Insider: 
Reuters: 
Financial Times:
South China Morning Post:
  • Agricultural Bank of China warns branches of loan risks. Caution comes after price cuts at housing projects in smaller mainland cities cause panic. Agricultural Bank of China, the mainland's third-largest lender by market value, has warned its branches about credit risks from property lending, two sources said.