Friday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg: 

• Greek Leaders Return Home for Rethink After Rebuff From Germany. Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is preparing to set out the most detailed account yet of his plans to revive the Greek economy after a diplomatic push ended with a rebuff from Germany and a warning shot from the European Central Bank. Tsipras, 40, was greeted by the rare sight of a pro-government demonstration in downtown Athens on Thursday night after he vowed to stick to his anti-bailout campaign pledges, despite their rejection by German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble. The prime minister will lay out his policy plans on Sunday, in the opening speech of the three-day-long parliamentary debate leading up to a confidence vote to confirm his government.

• Putin Risks New Unrest, Says Economist Who Forecast 2011 Protest. The economist who predicted the largest protests of Vladimir Putin’s rule in 2011-2012 says Russia may be entering a new era of revolt provoked by the economic slump and the deepening conflict in Ukraine. Discontent at tightening political controls at a time of worsening economic hardship may boil over by the next parliamentary elections at the end of 2016, Mikhail Dmitriev said in an interview in Moscow. Serious unrest could be triggered even sooner if fighting increases significantly between Ukraine and pro-Russian separatists, provoking fresh U.S. and European Union sanctions and a deeper economic crisis, he said. “A further escalation of the conflict in Ukraine can increase economic risks,” said Dmitriev. “We will fall further behind developed countries. This is a very dangerous scenario.”  

• In the Shadow of Abenomics, Japan's Poor and Elderly Are Being Left Behind. Since Abe took office two years ago, aggressive monetary easing devalued the yen, bolstering earnings at big companies and lifting the stock market 70 percent. It’s been good for exporters and those who own shares and property, but not so good for those without assets. For them, Abenomics means higher prices and dwindling government support. “If inflation accelerates further under Abe’s policies, inequality will widen,” said Hideo Kumano, chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute Inc. “The socially vulnerable and low-income classes will be worst affected and a cut in livelihood subsidies deals them a double punch.”   

• Conquering China’s Mountain of Debt. Cities and townships must give up their unorthodox borrowing. 

• The Diverging Fates of China's Provinces. (graph) As the tide goes out, not all boats are floating like before. While the world's second-largest economy slowed to a 7.4 percent expansion last year -- just squeaking into the communist government's "about 7.5 percent" target range -- regional data presents a fractured landscape more akin to Europe's than the rising-tide-floats-all-boats numbers we're used to from China. 

• China’s Stocks Head for Longest Weekly Losing Streak Since May. China’s stocks fell, with the benchmark index heading for its longest weekly losing streak since May, on concern an economic slowdown is deepening and new share sales will draw capital from existing shares. Huadian Power International Corp. tumbled 3.8 percent to lead a gauge of utilities lower. Inner Mongolian Baotou Steel Union Co. paced declines by commodity producers. A property index slumped 1.5 percent as China Vanke Co. and Poly Real Estate Group Co. retreated. The Shanghai Composite Index declined 0.9 percent to 3,109.36 at 9:40 a.m. local time, taking this week’s loss to 2.8 percent after manufacturing and services gauges signaled a worsening outlook for the economy and 24 companies prepared to sell shares in initial public offerings.  

• Groups Urge U.S. Fight Against China Foreign Tech Purge. U.S. business groups are calling for immediate action to reverse “troubling” new Chinese government policies in the information technology industry, according to a letter sent to key U.S. officials. If fully implemented, the policies threaten the ability of U.S. companies to participate in China’s $465 billion market for information technology products, according to the letter sent to U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and other government officials that was signed by 17 business groups. The rules raise “serious” questions about China’s international trade commitments and will have a “significant negative impact” on opportunities for U.S. companies in China, according to the Feb. 4 letter, which was signed by groups including the American Chamber of Commerce in China, the National Foreign Trade Council and the U.S. Information Technology Office.

• Asia Stocks Rise as Ringgit Strengthens With Oil. Asian equities rose, with a gauge of Australian shares heading for a record streak of gains, before U.S. payrolls data. China’s yuan rose the most this year and Malaysia’s ringgit advanced with oil. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.3 percent by 11:17 a.m. in Tokyo, with the S&P/ASX 200 Index up for a 12th straight day in Sydney.  

• Saudis Deepen Asia Oil Discount to a a Record Low. Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude exporter, cut prices for March oil sales to Asia, a sign that the desert kingdom is fighting for market share. State-owned Saudi Arabian Oil Co. lowered its official selling price for Arab Light 90 cents to $2.30 a barrel less than Middle East benchmarks, the company said in an e-mailed statement Thursday. That’s the lowest in at least 14 years since Bloomberg began gathering data.  

• Iron Ore Seen Below $40 by Andy Xie on China Steel Slowdown. Iron ore will slump into the $30s a metric ton this year as low-cost supplies rise and steel demand in China shrinks, according to Andy Xie, a Shanghai-based independent economist who’s forecast a rout for years. “When it peaked at $190, I started talking about a collapse and nobody believed me,” Shanghai-based Xie, a former Asia-Pacific chief economist at Morgan Stanley, said in a phone interview on Thursday. “We need to see prices much, much lower. It can still go down through $40 before we bounce back.”

• Treasuries Not Buying Stock Optimism in Move-VIX Spread: Options. While bond and equity investors often see the world differently, the gap in perceptions is getting extreme. Measures tracking levels of nervousness in the government debt and stock markets have been diverging all year and this week reached the widest since September 2013, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Most of the spread reflects a 34 percent jump in fixed-income price turbulence as measured by the Bank of America-Merrill Lynch Option Volatility MOVE Index.  

• Here’s Why Your Social Security Number Is Holy Grail for Hackers. The hackers who infiltrated Anthem Inc. made off with one of the most prized possessions in computer crime: the Social Security numbers of as many as 80 million customers of the nation’s second-biggest health insurer.

Wall Street Journal:

• U.S. Boosts Estimated Cost of Student Debt Forgiveness. Higher Forecast Is Driven by Expansion of Pay as You Earn Program.

• Natural Gas Sinks Amid Plentiful Supplies. Prices Fall to a 2½-Year Low Despite Cold Snap in the U.S. Northeast. Not even the freezing weather gripping the U.S. Northeast can stop natural-gas prices from plunging. Investors, convinced that abundant supplies and strong production are more than enough to withstand the current cold snap, sent natural-gas prices to a 2½-year low on Thursday. Sinking natural-gas prices are the latest example of a turn in the commodities cycle.

• Computer-Driven, Automatic Trading Strategies Score Big. So-Called Quant Traders Take Advantage of Volatility. Recent market volatility caught many investors flat-footed. Among the few winners were traders who let a computer be their guide. Hedge-fund managers who employ complicated, automatic-trading strategies made millions off the wild swings in currency and commodity markets in recent weeks, investors said.

• Jobs Data Shouldn’t Muddy Fed Waters.

• Big Pharma’s ObamaCare Reward. For helping pass the law, the drug companies get price controls. Wow, the breakup between President Obama and his former corporate health-care partners must have been bad. The deal he cut with the pharmaceutical industry to pass ObamaCare didn’t even last as long as his Presidency. We can’t wait for the memoir. 

Fox News:

• ISIS expanding ‘international footprint’ with affiliates in more countries, officials warn. The Islamic State, despite being driven by Kurdish fighters from its one-time Syrian stronghold in Kobani last week, nevertheless is extending its reach well beyond Iraq and Syria, military officials and analysts warn -- represented, by some estimates, in nearly a dozen countries. Lt. Gen. Vincent Stewart, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, delivered a grim assessment earlier this week in testimony to the House Armed Services Committee, as he described how the group was surfacing in North Africa. "With affiliates in Algeria, Egypt, Libya, the group is beginning to assemble a growing international footprint that includes ungoverned and under governed areas,” Stewart said.

• Obama at Prayer Event: Christians did terrible things, too. (video)

CNBC: 

• What investors are looking for in the jobs report. (video)

• Twitter(TWTR) earnings strong, user growth disappoints. (video) Twitter stock soared in Thursday after-hours trading as the company confirmed that it had reached a deal with Google, and reported quarterly earnings and revenue that beat analysts' expectations.

Zero Hedge:

• Chinese Rating Agency Warns Coming Crisis Is Worse Than 2008, Blames US "Printing Press". "I believe we’ll have to face a new world financial crisis in the next few years. It is difficult to give the exact time but all the signs are present, such as the growing volume of debts and the unsteady development of the economies of the US, the EU, China and some other developing countries," he said, adding the situation is even worse than ahead of 2008."

• "Catastrophic Shutdown Of America's Supply Chain Looms" As West Coast Port Worker Talks Break Down.

• 3 Things - The 5.6% Lie, Dividend Cuts, Valuation. (graph)

• "Investors Are Now Playing An Epic Game Of Chicken".

• What Central Bank Defeat Would Look Like, In Charts. (graph)

• Shunned Greece Agrees To Boost Economic Cooperation With Russia.

• The Fed's Stunning Primer For Life In A Negative Interest Rate World. (graph)

Business Insider:

• The most important thing in the Middle East that no one is talking about. "In a wider political sense, the real victor of the Syrian war and in Iraq has been Iran, a triumph for which the Islamic Republic has its militia forces to thank," Smyth writes. Tehran succeeded in turning Syria's war into a sectarian conflict and has benefitted greatly as a result.

• RadioShack files for bankruptcy.

• Pandora(P) stock plunges more than 20% on revenue miss.

• GoPro(GPRO) is crashing.

• The Obama administration is warming up to a US-listed state sponsor of terrorism.

Reuters:

• Yelp(YELP) signs up fewer visitor for its websites; shares down. Yelp Inc signed up fewer subscribers and business customers in the fourth quarter, raising concerns about the consumer review website operator's slowing growth in the United States and its ability to boost revenue from overseas markets. 

• Expedia(EXPE) 4th-qtr profit misses estimates, shares slide. Expedia Inc on Thursday posted a fourth-quarter profit below analysts' expectations and over 30 percent lower than the same quarter a year ago, due in part to currency headwinds and heavy competition in China. The travel services company's shares slid more than 7 percent in extended trading.

Telegraph:

• Instead of paying down its debts, the world’s gone on another credit binge. Global debt has jumped by $57 trillion, or 17pc of global GDP, since the fourth quarter of 2007.

People's Daily:

• PBOC Official Says RRR Cut Not Start of Strong Stimulus. The reserve requirement ratio cut announced by People's Bank of China on Wednesday was based on liquidity and economic conditions, citing Lu Lei, head of PBOC's research bureau. Solely relying on open market operations can't fill funding gap around Chinese New Year holiday because of current yuan positions situation, Lu said. The central bank will stick to the principle of balance between tight and loose while making moves in future based on economic indicators, he said.

Shanghai Securities News:

• Record China IPO Numbers to Lock Up Almost 2t Yuan. 24 Chinese cos. will start the IPO process next week, a record since CSRC restarted IPO approvals last year, locking up nearly 2t yuan in investor money, without citing anyone.

Evening Recommendations 

• None of note

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.50% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 108.0 -1.0 basis point.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 67.75 -.75 basis point.

• S&P 500 futures -.08%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.01%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (ALU)/.06

• (AXL)/.54

• (AON)/1.86

• (CBOE)/.66

• (FLILR)/.48

• (MMC)/.66

• (MCO)/.95

• (STRA)/1.18

• (CCJ)/.30

• (D)/.83

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for January is estimated at 230K versus 252K in December.

• The Unemployment Rate for January is estimated at 5.6% versus 5.6% in December.

• Average Hourly Earnings for January are estimated to rise +.3% versus a -.2% decline in December.

• The Labor Force Participation Rate for January is estimated at 62.7% versus 62.7% in December.

3:00 pm EST

• Consumer Credit for December is estimated to rise to $156.0B versus $14.08B in November.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Lockhart speaking, German industrial production report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (GLW) investor meeting and the (STJ) investor meeting could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by consumer and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Oil Bounce, Less Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Yen Weakness, Biotech/Commodity Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Slightly Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.26 -5.84%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 140.95 +1.46%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.71 -.74%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 65.54 -1.37%

• ISE Sentiment Index 171.0 +67.65%

• Total Put/Call .90 -4.26%

• NYSE Arms .81 -26.58% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 66.09 -2.64%
• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 742.0 -1.38%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 62.01 -.65%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 24.88 +.71%
• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 68.20 -.45%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 382.68 -2.08%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 113.60 unch.
• 2-Year Swap Spread 25.0 +.25 basis point

• TED Spread 24.5 +.25 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -17.25 -.75 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% unch.

• Yield Curve 129.0 +1.0 basis point

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $61.64/Metric Tonne -1.50%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -27.20 -14.2 points
• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 25.70 +4.9 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.50 +1.4 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.69 -2.0 basis points

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating +216 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating -21 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my retail/tech/medical/biotech sector longs 

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:  

• NATO Maps Eastern Defense Plan, With European Forces in Lead. NATO will set up military headquarters and command centers stretching from the Baltic to Black seas to operate a new rapid-reaction force to defend eastern Europe against the increasingly assertive Russia. Allied defense ministers fleshed out plans for a 5,000-man force that could start deploying within 48 hours and ultimately put 30,000 troops in the field, to be run by a rotating cast of European militaries. The 28 allied countries will “ensure that we have the right forces in the right place at the right time,” North Atlantic Treaty Organization Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said Thursday after the meeting in Brussels. “We are taking these steps in response to our changed security environment.”
• Greek Bank Bonds Tumble After ECB Restricts Funding Windown. Bonds of Greek banks tumbled after the European Central Bank said it would restrict their access to funding, raising financing costs and limiting the availability of liquidity. National Bank of Greece SA and Piraeus Bank SA were the biggest decliners in Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Euro Financial High Yield index, sliding as much as 6 cents on the euro. The price of credit-default swaps on Greek sovereign debt signaled a 71 percent probability of default within five years. “A very large warning shot has been fired across the Greek bows by the ECB,” said Gary Jenkins, chief credit strategist at London-based L&G Capital. “Whilst the most likely outcome is for some kind of compromise, there still remains the possibility that Greece could end up defaulting and exiting the euro zone almost by accident as much as design.” 
• Anthem Attack Investigators See Signs of Chinese Hackers. Investigators of Anthem Inc.’s data breach are pursuing evidence that points to Chinese state-sponsored hackers who are stealing personal information from health-care companies for purposes other than pure profit, according to three people familiar with the probe. The breach, which exposed Social Security numbers and other sensitive details of 80 million customers, is one of the biggest thefts of medical-related customer data in U.S. history. China has said in the past that it doesn’t conduct espionage through hacking.  
• Ukraine Lets Hryvnia Dive as IMF-Backed Move Boosts Bailout Case. Ukraine loosened its grip on the hryvnia currency, allowing it to slump by a third in a move backed by the International Monetary Fund amid talks for a new bailout. The hryvnia retreated 33 percent to a record 25 per dollar at 6:20 p.m. in Kiev. Ukraine’s dollar-denominated bonds due in July 2017 advanced to a five-day high of 53.366 cents on the dollar, reducing the yield to 41.13 percent.  
• Russian Inflation at Fastest Since 2008 After Currency Rout. Russian inflation topped forecasts by economists, accelerating to the fastest pace in almost seven years as the country’s worst currency crisis since 1998 ignited price growth. Consumer prices rose 15 percent in January from a year earlier, compared with 11.4 percent in December, the Federal Statistics Service in Moscow said today in an e-mailed statement. That exceeded the median estimate of 15 economists in a Bloomberg survey for 13.5 percent. Prices jumped 3.9 percent from the previous month.
• Longtime Sberbank Champion Says Sell as Crisis Escalates. After more than five years of advising clients to buy OAO Sberbank, Renaissance Capital is turning bearish on Russia’s biggest lender, saying a spiraling economic crisis will cut margins and increase risks.  
• Boko Haram’s Widening Raids Entangle Regional Nations in War. The Nigerian militant group Boko Haram’s latest attack in neighboring Cameroon killed as many as 81 people and deepened the engagement of armies from the region to halt the Islamists’ drive to establish a self-styled caliphate. Gunmen attacked the northern Cameroonian town of Fotokol early Wednesday, just a day after Chadian forces operating in Nigerian territory drove militants out of the border town of Gamboru, about 3 kilometers (1.8 miles) away. Local resident Tijjani Abba Kuli said by phone Thursday from Fotokol that the militants killed at least 81 people.
• Indonesia’s Economy Shrank Last Quarter on Commodities Slump. Indonesia’s economy shrank last quarter from the previous three months, capping the weakest year since at least the global financial crisis, on falling commodity prices and cooling investment. Southeast Asia’s biggest economy shrank 2.06 percent last quarter from the previous three months, when it expanded a revised 3.16 percent, the statistics bureau said in Jakarta on Thursday. It grew 5.02 percent in 2014, from a revised 5.58 percent pace the previous year. 
• Denmark Cuts Key Deposit Rate to Minus 0.75% to Save Peg. Denmark’s central bank cut its benchmark rate for a fourth time this year as it steps up efforts to fight back capital flows that threaten to strengthen the krone beyond the confines of its euro peg. The central bank lowered the deposit rate to minus 0.75 percent from minus 0.5 percent, it said today. It left its lending rate at 0.05 percent. 
• Stocks in Europe closed at their highest level in more than seven years. Greek shares fell amid concern over talks between the nation’s government and European leaders. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index added 0.1 percent to 372.51 at the close of trading, erasing intraday losses of as much as 0.6 percent as energy shares advanced.
• Tenacious Oil Bulls Put $4 Billion in ETFs on Rebound Bet. Oil investors are still betting on a rebound after being proved wrong since October. They’ve poured more than $4 billion into oil exchange-traded products in the past four months even as prices tumbled 47 percent. That included the $1.99 billion added in January, the biggest monthly inflow in six years. 
• Pfizer(PFE) Flexes Muscle With Priciest Purchase of Decade. Pfizer Inc. is proving that when it sees something it wants, it’s willing to pay up. The company is buying injectable-medicine maker Hospira Inc. for about $17 billion, or $90 a share, a price that Hospira’s stock has never come close to on its own. In turn, Pfizer gains a steadily growing business to tack onto its established drugs unit that it has discussed spinning off.

Wall Street Journal:

• U.S. Kerry Visits Ukraine, French, German Leaders to Follow in Bid to End Violence. Moscow Warns Any Military Aid Will be Seen As Threat to Russian Security. The diplomatic scramble to calm the conflict in eastern Ukraine entered a new, urgent phase Thursday as Western leaders descended on Kiev, while Moscow warned that any military aid to the country would be seen as a threat to Russian security. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry met Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko in Kiev and repeated Western demands that Russian-backed separatists pull back their fighters and arms. German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President François Hollande were due to arrive later in the day on an emergency trip of their own, and to travel to Moscow to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday.
• Germany Cool on Greek Push for Bridge Program. Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis Meets With German Counterpart Wolfgang Schäuble in Berlin. Germany on Thursday dismissed Greece’s request for bridge funding that would give it three months to negotiate new bailout terms, insisting that the newly-elected government implement the conditions tied to its agreed program. “We agreed to disagree,” German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble told a joint news conference with his Greek counterpart, Yanis Varoufakis, after the two met in Berlin on Thursday morning.

CNBC:

• Weatherford(WFT) to cut 5,000 jobs as it fights oil slump. Weatherford International plans to cut 5,000 jobs, or about 9 percent of its workforce, by the end of the first quarter as the oil services company tries to save costs amid sinking oil prices and budget cuts. 
• Oil heading for $30, currency war coming: Analysts. (video)
• What Anthem breach victims need to do now. (video) Repercussions from some data breaches are easily remedied, but victims of insurance company Anthem's breach will have to remain vigilant against fraud for the rest of their lives.

ZeroHedge:

• Greece: The Big Picture Update, And Why Deutsche Bank Thinks Europe Will Fold.
• Russia Deploys Nuclear ICBM Launchers On Combat Patrol.
• Thousands Of Anti-ECB Protesters Gather In Athens In "First Greek Pro-Government Rally" - Live Feed.
• "Elections Change Nothing" Germany Admits Distrust Of The Masses Is The EU Way.
• Does Anyone Remember 2007? The Global Debt Bubble In 3 Ominous Charts. (graph)
• Whispers Of Greek Capital Controls Begin.
• Putin Invites Tsipras To Visit Russia.
• Greece Refuses To Back Down: "Government Will Do As Promised" Tsipras Says.
• US Trade Deficit Soars In December As Strong Dollar Hurts Exports, Downward Q4 GDP Revisions Imminent. (graph)
• Layoffs Surge 17.6% YoY, Shale State Joblessness Soars, Initial Jobless Claims Rise. (graph)
• Bulk Shipping Bankruptices Begin As Baltic Dry Collapse Continues. (graph)
• Schauble And Varoufakis Meeting Ends: "We Didn't Even Agreed To Disagree".
• Ukraine Currency Plunges Over 30% After Central Bank Gives Up On Indicative Rate. (graph)

Business Insider:

• Alarming GIF shows Russian-backed rebels slowly taking over eastern Ukraine.
• ISIS manifesto reveals what life is like for women under the terror group.
• Iranian commander: The 'Americans are begging us for a deal'.

Financial Times:

• Debt mountains spark fears of another crisis. The world is awash with more debt than before the global financial crisis erupted in 2007, with China’s debt relative to its economic size now exceeding US levels, according to a report. Global debt has increased by $57tn since 2007 to almost $200tn — far outpacing economic growth, calculates McKinsey & Co, the consultancy. As a share of gross domestic product, debt has risen from 270 per cent to 286 per cent.

Telegraph:

• Europe could be torn apart by the wrong sort of Eurosceptics. In Greece, France, Spain – and increasingly in Italy – populist parties have emerged as the greatest internal threat faced by the European Union since its inception. 
• European Central Bank's move to cut Greek bank funding puts pressure on debt deal. Stocks plummet and Greek bond yields soar as Greece's finance minister pleads for time and financial assistance from the troika.  

N-TV:

• Greece Must Respect Agreements, Germany's Brinkhaus Tells N-TV. Greek govt must respect rules of aid agreements signed by its predecessors, Ralph Brinkhaus, finance spokesman in parliament for Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democratic Union, says. Agreeing to rule changes for Greece would prompt people in other euro region countries that got aid to resist repayments. "We can't apply double standards, we can't say some have to repay everything, some have to stick to all the reforms, while others are getting relief," he said.

The Straits Times:

• ISIS has built near-impregnable base and mass appear: New book.

ISIS has built near-impregnable base and mass appeal: New book - See more at: http://www.straitstimes.com/news/world/europe/story/isis-has-built-near-impregnable-base-and-mass-appeal-new-book-20150205#sthash.TSyXsl7s.dpuf

ISIS has built near-impregnable base and mass appeal: New book - See more at: http://www.straitstimes.com/news/world/europe/story/isis-has-built-near-impregnable-base-and-mass-appeal-new-book-20150205#sthash.TSyXsl7s.dpuf

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.48%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Airlines -1.45% 2) Papers -.82% 3) Homebuilders -.62%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• CLW, IRBT, GMCR, IT, TDC, FEIC, FBHS, DFT, MDSO, UA, CDNS, KORS, RARE, CRRC, POWI, HI, SNCR, PMT, FOXA, ADS, PRU, GEOS, COST, RSTI, USG, MUSA, CMI, UBNT, FBHS, ACXM, DFT, GEOS and MTRX

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) EWG 2) YUM 3) WLT 4) GMCR 5) PRU

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) FOXA 2) M 3) POWL 4) ANTM 5) X
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value +.82%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Oil Service +2.05% 2) Steel +1.75% 3) Coal +1.73%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• HSP, SMRT, BPFH, GRA, DATA, GRUB, BLL, COTY, OPK, ICPT, PBH, ROSE, BLL, OAS, BGC, CONN, ORLY, GPRE, SPLK, CHTR, EL, LB, TW, EQT, FEYE, ATW and CCK

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ATML 2) NUS 3) GLUU 4) MDLZ 5) MNKD
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) LB 2) UHAL 3) SMRT 4) GRUB 5) HSP
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg: 

• Greece Loses ECB Funds, Raising Pressure to Yield to Austerity. Greece lost a critical funding artery as the European Central Bank restricted loans to its financial system, raising pressure on the 10-day-old government to yield to German-led austerity demands to stay in the euro zone. The ECB’s decision, announced at 9:36 p.m. in Frankfurt, will raise financing costs for Greek banks and stiffen oversight by the central bank. The next move is up to Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, who swept to power promising to reverse five years of spending cuts that accompanied 240 billion euros ($272 billion) of bailout loans. The ECB move came hours before the Greek finance chief, Yanis Varoufakis, was due to meet Germany’s Wolfgang Schaeuble in Berlin and hours after he met ECB President Mario Draghi.

• The Rebel Leader Who Makes Putin Look Cautious. Vladimir Putin’s critics say he went too far on Ukraine. The former Russian agent who helped trigger the conflict says his biggest mistake was not going far enough. Putin has made himself a “hostage” to the war in Ukraine by opting not to annex the Donetsk and Luhansk regions after taking Crimea, according to Igor Girkin, the former rebel commander who goes by the name Strelkov, or Shooter. If the president had sent troops into Donetsk and Luhansk to support the insurgents like he did in Crimea, all of Novorossiya, or New Russia, the term the rebels and their supporters revived to identify a swathe of southeastern Ukraine that was once part of the Russian empire, would now be reunited with the motherland, Strelkov said in an interview in Moscow. But Putin, “not understanding that he’d already crossed the West’s red line,” and influenced by “top bureaucrats and oligarchs,” decided to stop at Crimea, said Strelkov. “Now we have a war that will continue to grow, regardless of whether Russia wants it to or not.”  

• Asia Stocks Fall on Euro Concern; China Futures Jump Amid Easing. Asian stocks fell as investors weighed the European Central Bank’s tightening of the terms of Greece’s bailout. China stock index futures climbed after the government cut banks’ reserve ratios for the first time since 2012. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.2 percent to 141.61 as of 9:24 a.m. in Tokyo.

Wall Street Journal:

• China’s Total Debt Load Equals 282% of GDP, Raising Economic Risks. (graph) The speed of Chinese debt growth, much of it related to real estate, raises risks that an unwinding of the country’s two-decade growth boom might not go down so smoothly. Here are some key facts from the report.

• Ukraine Anticipates Arms Supplies From West. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry to Visit Kiev on Thursday. Ukraine’s president suggested the West is close to sending arms to Kiev to help fight off pro-Russia rebels after previous appeals for weapons were rebuffed, as the capital prepares for a visit by U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry aimed at finding a solution to the conflict in the east.

• Greeks Meet Skepticism in Frankfurt, Brussels. The European Central Bank No Longer Accepts Greek Bonds From Banks Seeking Funding. European officials put a damper on plans by the new Greek government to ease conditions on its bailout, warning that without an extension of the existing rescue program—and the austerity measures it contains—the government will lose access to new money by the end of this month. On Wednesday evening the European Central Bank announced it would no longer accept

• UBS Faces a New Tax-Evasion Probe. Authorities Investigate Whether Swiss Bank’s Clients Used ‘Bearer Securities’ to Hide Cash. Federal prosecutors have launched a new probe into whether Swiss bank UBS AG helped Americans evade taxes through investments largely banned in the U.S., according to people familiar with the investigation.

• Health Insurer Anthem Hit by Hackers. Breach Gets Away With Names, Social Security Numbers of Customers, Employees. Anthem Inc., the country’s second-biggest health insurer, said hackers broke into a database containing personal information for about 80 million of its customers and employees in what is likely to be the largest data breach disclosed by a health-care company.

Fox News:

• Brian Williams lied about his copter being shot down in Iraq. Brian Williams, the nation’s top-rated news anchor, has admitted fabricating a tale of being shot down in a helicopter over Iraq a dozen years ago. Williams apologized on the air Wednesday evening, saying: “I made a mistake in recalling the events of 12 years ago.”

MarketWatch.com:

• Keurig(GMCR) shares fall after disappointing outlook, results. Shares of Keurig Green Mountain Inc. dropped -7.5% in the extended session Wednesday after the single-serve coffee company's outlook and quarterly results fell below Wall Street estimates.

• What you need to know about ECB’s Greek collateral decision. It’s not a welcome development. Greek banks have suffered significant deposit withdrawals before and after the January election that brought the antiausterity government, led by Syriza’s Alexis Tsipras, to power. “This news will likely scare depositors and result in further bank runs,” said Peter Boockvar, chief market analyst at the Lindsey Group in Fairfax, Va.

CNBC:

• West Coast ports on the verge of a complete gridlock. Traffic at nearly 30 West Coast ports is on the verge of "complete gridlock" and shipping officials have threatened to stop paying dockworkers if a contract deal is not reached soon.

• Yum Brands(YUM) earnings: 61 cents per share vs. EPS estimate of 66 cents. Same-store sales in China were forecast to plunge 19.4 percent, according to Consensus Metrix. Instead, China same-store sales declined 16 percent.

Zero Hedge:

• ECB Pulls The Trigger: Blocks Funding To Greece Via Debt Collateral - Full Statement.

• Paul Singer Warns "The Consequences Of Monetary Manipulation Are Unknowable".

• Meet The Man Behind The Scenes: The "Pro-Market Socialist" Banker Who Will Shape "Europe's Financial Future".

•  Baltic  Dry Crashes To New 29-Year Low.

• President Of Euro Parliament Warns Greece Risks National Bankruptcy; Varoufakis Replies: "Greece Already Is Bankrupt".

• Here's A Startling Fact About President Obama's New Budget.

• Draghi Dashes Buffett Bounce As Crude Carnage Continues. (graph)

• These Are The "Highest Conviction" Hedge Fund Strategies And Most Crowded Trades.(graph)

• Abegeddon: Speculators Are Net Short Japanese Stocks For First Time Since Abenomics. (graph)

Business Insider:

• Your tweets will soon show up in Google searches — again.

• The CME(CME) will close most of its open outcry trading pits by this summer. 

• GREECE CRASHED. (graph)

• Jeb Bush stumbles on Yemen in speech.

• Russia's military is adding more planes this year than most countries own in total.

Reuters:

• Gilead's(GILD) deep discounts fuel investor worries about drug pricing.

Telegraph:

• Devaluation by China is the next great risk for a deflationary world. China is not alone in facing a dilemma as deflation spreads and beggar-thy-neighbour currency wars become the norm.

• ECB tightens the screw on Greece with plan to cut funding earlier. Eurozone central bank officials refuse to accept Greek bonds, pushing the burden of supporting the country's banks back onto Athens.

Spiegel online:

• McKinsey Says China's Debt Development Not Sustainable. Debt accumulated by private households, cos. and govt. quadrupled in China in past 7 years, citing a McKinsey study it obtained. Structure of debt in China worrisome as real estate industry's debt too high. Global indebtedness more than doubled to $199t last year from $87t in 2000. Global debt now represents 286% of global economic activity, up from 269% in 2007.

Sueddeutsche Zeitung:

• U.S. May Lift 'Price Russia Pays for Aggression,' Biden Says. U.S. may loosen economic sanctions should Russia meet its obligations under Minsk agreement, or increase the burden on Russia for its "aggressive behavior" in Ukraine should country not follow suit, U.S. Vice President Joe Biden said in an interview. The U.S. has no interest in military escalation, he said.

People's Daily:

• China Ratio Cut Unlikely to Reverse Property Correction. The reserve requirement ratio cut is unlikely to reverse the overall correction in China's property market and smaller cities will still face destocking pressure, citing researchers.

Evening Recommendations 

• None of note

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 109.0 +2.0 basis points.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 68.5 +.75 basis point.

• S&P 500 futures -.19%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.21%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (ABB)/.35

• (ADS)/3.33

• (BDX)/1.44

• (CI)/1.67

• (CMI)/2.51

• (EL)/1.05

• (ICE)/2.54

• (KORS)/1.33

• (PTEN)/.50

• (PM)/1.06

• (SNA)/1.79

• (VMC)/.28

• (BWLD)/1.11

• (CME)/.93

• (EXPE)/1.01

• (GPRO)/.70

• (LNKD)/.53

• (MCK)/2.62

• (PPS)/.68

• (SYMC)/.49

• (TWTR)/.06

• (YELP)/.24

Economic Releases
7:30 am EST

• Challenger Job Cuts for January.

• RBC Consumer Outlook Index for February.

8:30 am EST

• Preliminary 4Q Non-Farm Productivity is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +2.3% gain in 3Q.

• Preliminary 4Q Unit Labor Costs are estimated to rise +1.2% versus a -1.0% decline in 3Q.

• Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to rise to 290K versus 265K the prior week.

• Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 2400K versus 2385K prior.

• The Trade Deficit for December is estimated at -$38.0B versus -$39.0B in November.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Bank of England decision, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index and the (SE) analyst meeting could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.