Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 3,241.53 -.06%

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

 
Indices

• DJIA 28,696.34 +.19%

• NASDAQ 9,046.72 +.16%

• Russell 2000 1,659.01 -1.18%

• S&P 500 High Beta 46.70 -.52%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 154.76 -2.58%

• Wilshire 5000 33,147.0 -.09%

• Russell 1000 Growth 1,784.79 +.28%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,344.28 -.44%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 643.34 -.6%

• MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,121.72 +1.12%
  

• NYSE Technology 2,186.37 +.54%

• Transports 10,890.18 -.69%

• Utilities 869.90 -.58%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 78.99 +.33%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 45.14 +.83%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,274.42 +.11%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 954.47 -.49%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 396,332 +.37%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 974 +334

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 40.0 +24.0%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 550,077 +2.55%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,114,661 -2.4%

• Total Put/Call .84 -2.33%

• OEX Put/Call 1.69 -1.9%

• ISE Sentiment 75.0 -17.0 points

• NYSE Arms 1.17 +54.5%

• Volatility(VIX) 13.75 +8.5%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 42.0 -8.2%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 5.81 +4.97%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 6.71 +1.08%

• Smart Money Flow Index 15,231.84 +2.32%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $3.604 Trillion +.14%

• ICI Domestic Equity Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$.519 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 37.2 -11.2%

• AAII % Bears 21.9 -.5%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 187.04 unch.

• Crude Oil 63.0 +1.31%

• Reformulated Gasoline 174.88 -.63%

• Natural Gas 2.13 -5.81%

• Heating Oil 206.04 -.02%

• Gold 1,550.50 +2.24%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 174.07 -1.79%

• Copper 278.20 -2.18%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 297.0 USD/Metric Tonne+.68%

• China Iron Ore Spot 92.38 USD/Metric Tonne +3.18%

• Lumber 427.30 +6.6%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 896.15 +.29%

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +2.33% +5.0 basis points

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +2.3% -10.0 basis points
• Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 30.0% unch.

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .2970 -4.56%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 10.92 unch.

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 176.50 +.06%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -9.3 -1.0 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 32.5 +4.6 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -10.70 +5.2 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 96.3% chance of no change, 0.0% chance of rate cut on 1/29

• US Dollar Index 96.79 -.79%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,664.39 +.45%

• Bitcoin/USD 7,338.98 +1.74%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 127.01 -1.38%

• Yield Curve 30.0 +3.0 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.80% -7.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.134 Trillion +.18%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 14.97 +.74%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 160.91 -.71%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 162.50 -.5 basis point

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 33.15 +6.81%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 98.48 -1.86%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 44.19 unch.

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 22.82 +4.37%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 58.25 +4.45%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 167.87 +.36%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.77% +3.0 basis points

• TED Spread 40.25 -.25 basis point

• 2-Year Swap Spread 9.25 unch.

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 1.75 +2.5 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 45.40 +2.91%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 528.0 -3.4%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 53.60 +2.85%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 180.95 +3.48%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 180.0 unch.
  

• M1 Money Supply $4.035 Trillion +.18%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,126.40 -.4%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 233,250 +5,250

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
  

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.75% +3.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 478.70 -5.3%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 63.9 +1.6 points

• Weekly Retail Sales +5.9% +60.0 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $2.56/gallon +.01/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 976.0 -15.2%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 854.4 +2.1%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 65.0 -3.7%

• Rail Freight Carloads 182,138 -30.6%

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth +.5%

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth -1.1%

Leading Sectors

• Defense +2.6%

• Alt Energy +2.3%

• Social Media +1.8%

• Video Gaming +1.4%

• Shipping +1.3%

Lagging Sectors

• Steel -1.3% 

• Retail -1.4%

• Paper -1.64%

• Airlines -2.8%

• Biotech -2.9%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (10)

• KTOS, CRC, NOC, MAXR, UPLD, LMT, CRWD, TSLA, LHX and CNNE

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (3)

• SPAR, AAL and INCY

Weekly Charts

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Lower into Afternoon on Mid-East Tensions, US Economic Data, Profit-Taking, Transport/Financial Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.9 +11.2%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 125.26 -.53%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.7 +2.1%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 42.0 +3.4%

• ISE Sentiment Index 82.0 -26
  

• Total Put/Call .84 +7.69%

• NYSE Arms 1.10 -20.9%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 45.41 +2.31%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 528.0 -3.72%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.97 +4.06%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 162.5 -1.25 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 54.39 +2.55%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 180.99 +3.04%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 167.877 +.21%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 9.25 -.75 basis point

• TED Spread 40.25 +3.5 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 1.25 -3.25 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.73 -.45%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.5%  -3.0 basis points

• Yield Curve .30 -5.0 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 92.38 USD/Metric Tonne -.11%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -9.3 -5.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 32.50 -.9 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -10.7 +.2 basis point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.78 -2.0 basis points
• 5.6% chance of Fed rate cut at March 18th meeting, 17.5% chance of cut at April 29th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -316 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +13 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -38 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Lower: On losses in my biotech/tech/industrial/medical sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.4%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Airlines -1.6% 2) Computer Hardware -1.4% 3) Gaming -1.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• INCY and AAXN

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) SBGI 2) MUR 3) DISH 4) RSX 5) SWN

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) AAXN 2) INCY 3) FCAU 4) AAL 5) HEXO

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value -.3%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Defense +1.4% 2) Oil Service +.9% 3) Homebuilders +.7%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• LW, KTOS, LB, SM, CRC, PRVB, NOC, TSLA, MTDR, LMT, UPLD, PDCE, SYNA, DBD, MAXR and CRWD

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) PAGP 2) TRGP 3) SLB 4) LMT 5) GD

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) LW 2) LPTX 3) TSLA 4) WING 5) LB

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +10.4% Above 100-Day Average
• 4 Sectors Rising, 7 Sectors Declining
• 39.1% of Issues Advancing, 58.3% Declining
• 76 New 52-Week Highs, 9 New Lows
• 65.9% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 51.52%
• Vix 13.6 +9.2%
• Total Put/Call .82 +5.1%
• TRIN/Arms .84 -39.6%

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.5% to +1.0% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 53.0 unch.

• China Sovereign CDS 30.75 -.5 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index  66.76 +.01%.
• FTSE 100 futures +.36%.

• S&P 500 futures +.07%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.08%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (LW)/.86

After the Close:

• None of note

Economic Releases  

10:00 am EST

• Construction Spending MoM for Nov. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a -.8% decline in Oct.
• ISM Manufacturing for Dec. is estimated to rise to 49.0 versus 48.1 in Nov.
• ISM Prices Paid for Dec. is estimated to rise to 47.5 versus 46.7 in Nov.
  

2:00 pm EST

• FOMC Dec. 11th Meeting Minutes.
  

Afternoon:

• Wards Total Vehicle Sales for Dec. is estimated to fall to 17.0M versus 17.09M in Nov.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The German Unemployment rate could also impact trading today.

Market Hours

Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.