Tuesday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• IMF Trims Global Economic Outlook, But Tones Down Risk Warnings.  

• Moody’s Downgrades Hong Kong Rating Amid Political Turmoil.  

• Free Markets Made Davos. Now Governments Are Crashing the Party.    

• Investors Haven’t Been This Bullish on China’s Stocks for Years.

• Global Shipping Gauges Bottom Out Steaming Toward Calmer Waters.

• China Will Rack Up Three Billion Trips During World’s Biggest Human Migration. 

• Stocks Edge Lower With U.S. Futures; Oil Climbs. European stocks and U.S. equity futures edged lower on Monday as investors awaited a fresh batch of corporate earnings and some key central bank meetings this week. Crude oil rose following supply disruptions in Libya and Iraq. Activity was muted across most major markets because of a U.S. holiday. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index trimmed an earlier decline, though it remained modestly lower after spending the morning in the red. Contracts on the main American equity benchmarks also pared some earlier losses. Equities advanced in most of Asia, though shares slumped in Hong Kong and India. European bonds were mixed and range-bound, while the pound was slightly weaker ahead of U.K. jobs data due tomorrow. Brent crude jumped back above $65 a barrel as unrest hit key production regions. Iraq temporarily stopped output at an oil field on Sunday, while Libyan production almost ground to a halt after armed forces shut down a pipeline. Futures on the S&P 500 Index dipped 0.1% as of 1:45 p.m. London time. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index dipped 0.2%. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was little changed. The MSCI Emerging Market Index decreased 0.1%.  

• Oil Advances to One-Week High as Unrest Hits Iraq and Libya.  

• JPMorgan Says Analysts Are ‘Unusually’ Pessimistic on Earnings.

• Somebody Big Has Called This Year’s Oil Market Completely Wrong.  

• Hedge-Fund Titans Hohn, Mandel Lead $178 Billion Year of Profits.

Wall Street Journal:

• Trump to Speak at Davos as His Impeachment Trial Unfolds at Home.

• The Left Forgets What Martin Luther King Stood For.

• Trump’s GOP Support Remains Solid Through Impeachment.

• Lev Parnas Paid His Way Into Donald Trump’s Orbit.

• Hospitals Give Tech Giants Access to Detailed Medical Records.

• Europe’s Cheap Debt Draws Record Borrowing by U.S. Companies.

• Foreign Investment Falls to Near-Decade Low as Globalization Slows.

• The State of Trump’s Union.

Fox News:

• Island’s governor fires two more as scandal around warehoused hurricane, earthquake aid widens.

• CURTIS HILL: Why Rev. King’s speech still inspires us to be better.

• Trump touts low African-American jobless rate in MLK Day tweet.

CNBC:

• IMF says the outlook for the global economy ‘remains sluggish’ as it cuts growth forecasts.

• Boeing(BA) is in talks to borrow $10 billion or more as 737 Max crisis wears on.

• TikTok was just pulled into the middle of a years-long fight between Snap and Facebook.

Zero Hedge: 

• Futures Flat With US Closed For Holiday; Nat Gas Craters.

• Fake Investigations... Designed To Fool You.

• One Bank Is Selling Its Super-Rich Clients Products To Predict The 2020 Election.

• IMF Slashes Global GDP Forecast For 6th Consecutive Time, Warns "Climate Change" Will Hit Economy.

• Platts: 7 Commodity Charts To Watch This Week.

• White House Legal Team Slams "Frivolous", "Dangerous" Impeachment Charade; Seeks "Speedy Acquittal".

• Trump Jr.: "Democrats And Media Hate Trump Much More Than They Love America".

• Dollar Dips As Trump-Macron Agree On Tariff "Truce" Through Year-End.

• The Ugly Truth About How Much Americans Have Been Spied On By The Gov't Since 2001.

• Hedge Fund CIO: Once All Investing Becomes Passive, Then The Information Contained In Market Prices Will Be Meaningless.

• India's Half-Finished "Ghost Towns" Leave Middle Class In Crisis.

• Peter Schiff: "I Just Lost All The Bitcoin I Have Ever Owned".

• NYT Editors Hedge Their Bets, Endorse Warren & Klobuchar.

• The EU Is The Biggest Loser From US-China Agreement.

Business Insider:

• China is fighting to stop the spread of a mysterious, deadly virus as millions prepare to travel for Chinese New Year.
  

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 50.5 -1.0 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 29.5 -.5 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.30 -.03%.

• FTSE 100 futures -.35%.

• S&P 500 futures +.01%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.01%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (CMA)/1.75

• (HAL)/.29

• (PETS)/.30

After the Close:

• (COF)/2.37

• (IBM)/4.69

• (NFLX)/.52

• (AMTD)/.77

• (UAL)/2.64

• (ZION)/1.10

Economic Releases

• None of note

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The President's speech to World Economic Forum and the Eurozone ZEW Index could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are slightly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

• Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
• The Week Ahead by Yahoo. (video)
• Stocks to Watch Next Week by Seeking Alpha.
• Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as global growth optimism, earnings outlooks and oil strength offset technical selling, less dovish FOMC commentary and profit-taking. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:   

• Hong Kong Leaders Rebuff Key Protest Demand as Violence Persists.  

• BOJ Expected to Stand Pat, Raise Growth Forecast: Decision Guide.   

• BOE Rate Cut May Be Coming Even If Key Economic Number Improves.

• Trump’s China Deal Is His Hedge Against Impeachment Damage.

• Trump’s Former Economic Chief Gary Cohn Predicts No Recession.

• Bond-Market Jolt Will Have to Wait Ahead of Central-Bank Bonanza.

• Libya’s Biggest Oil Field Starts to Shut as Peace Talks Loom .

• Middle Eastern Stocks Climb With Earnings in Focus: Inside EM.

Wall Street Journal:

• How Trump Has Kept Solid GOP Support Through Impeachment.

• Trump Administration to Soon Issue Guidance on Medicaid Block Grants.

• The Comey Coverup Unravels.

• U.S. Firms Fuel Europe’s Green-Energy Push.

CNBC:

• This map shows how Amazon’s warehouses are rapidly expanding across the country.

• Wealthy investors see nothing that will stop this relentless bull market.

• A popular new sextortion scam tricks victims into thinking their Nest cameras are recording them.

• Thousands-strong Hong Kong protest cut short by clashes.

MarketWatch.com:  

• Which markets are closed for Martin Luther King Jr. Day (and which aren’t)?

• Opinion: Value stocks are making a comeback. Here’s how you can get in early.

Fox News:

• State’s attorney blasts Baltimore cop union’s ‘political rhetoric’ after crowd attacks officer.

• JUSTIN HASKINS: AOC’s plan to move Dems further left should worry party.

• This remark on impeachment by Dem leader should alarm Americans, Collins says.

Zero Hedge:

• Trump Blasts "Brazen, Unlawful" Coup Attempt After House Files "Framers' Worst Nightmare" Legal Brief.

• MSNBC Promotes Biden Lie That Sanders 'Doctored' Video; Politico Debunks, Sirota Simmers.

• MSNBC Slammed For Featuring 'Body Language Expert' Who Calls Bernie Sanders A Liar.

• Not Just Hunter: Widespread Biden Family Profiteering Exposed.

• 944 Trillion Reasons Why The Fed Is Quietly Bailing Out Hedge Funds.

• "We're Ready To Fight": 1000s Expected At Massive Gun-Rights Rally At Virginia Capitol.

• The Quiet Crisis: Deaths Caused By Alcoholism Have More Than Doubled.

• Why Laws Against Hate Speech Are Dangerous.

• Facebook(FB) Apologizes For Translating Xi Jinping's Name As "Mr Shithole".

• Haftar Blocks All Libyan Oil Exports Day Before Berlin Peace Conference.

• Mystery Chinese Virus Has Likely Infected Over 1,700 As It Sweeps Across China And Japan.

Business Insider:   

• The most powerful countries on earth in 2020, ranked.

• Alphabet's soaring stock just pushed it above a $1 trillion market cap. Here are the 11 highest-valued public companies.  

• The US is entering an era in which impeaching the president will be routine.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Putin Says He Doesn’t Want Return to Soviet-Era Lifetime Leaders..

• Attack Kills 30, Wounds 50 on Military Base in Yemen.  

• Chinese Factories Hold Up Economic Growth Despite Broad Weakness.  

• Charting the World Economy: 2020 Banking on Friendlier Trade.

• One $4 Trillion Corner of the Market Isn’t Afraid of the R Word.

• Extreme Valuation Cases Wanted for a Red-Hot Rally in Equities.

• Tepper, Druckenmiller Say They’re ‘Riding’ Market Rally.  

• Best Buy Looks Into Allegations of Misconduct by CEO Barry.

• Volatility Strategists on 2020: Ignore Sanders at Your Own Risk.

• Libya’s Sarraj Says Oil Squeeze Shows War Rival Wants No Peace.

Wall Street Journal:

• The Vanishing Executive Assistant.

• 8 Predictions for the Future of Fashion.

• Boomer Socialism Led to Bernie Sanders.

• New York Tries Again to Muzzle Pro-Life Groups.

• CDC Removes Advice to Refrain From Vaping.

• Spotify in Talks to Buy the Ringer.

• Impeachment Vote Will Test Senate’s Most Endangered Democrat.

• China’s Slowing Growth Underlines Stress Facing Its Economy in 2020.

CNBC:

• Major medical records vendor Epic Systems warns it will stop working with Google Cloud.

• A theory on who’s doing all the buying that’s pushing stocks higher and higher.

• Buy these top stocks ahead of earnings, including Netflix and Guess, Wall Street analysts say.

• Amazon(AMZN) reportedly wants to turn your hand into a credit card.

• NBCUniversal revealed a critical number about Peacock that shows why media companies are walking slowly into streaming.

• 4 restaurant chains that are opening spinoffs for faster dining.
  

• Americans are flocking to these 10 cities where salaries have risen 25% or more in the last 5 years.
  

• America is about to get a powerful tool in the war against cancer.
  

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (DIS), (TSLA), (GSK), (BBBY), (RDFN), (C), (BIDU) and (SPOT).

• Had bearish commentary on (AAPL) and (EBAY).

MarketWatch.com:

• Big winner during financial crisis says the stock market will slow, but till then ‘I love riding a horse that’s running’.

• Opinion: How and when prudent investors ought to buy these 5G stocks.  

• Earnings recession set to end with a fourth-quarter comeback.  

• Tesla and 25 Other Stock Picks from Barron’s Roundtable Panelists.

Fox News:

• Harry, Meghan lose official titles, will no longer represent the Queen: palace.

Zero Hedge:

• Now, Everyone Pays The Piper: The End Of China's Economic Miracle.

• US Military Jams GPS Across East Coast As FBI Seizes Night-Vision Devices.

• All The World's Wealth In One Visualization.

• Virginia Gun Sales Soar As Dems Consider Draconian "Assault Weapons" Ban.
• "We Need A Full Investigation": Bannon Accuses Pelosi, Schiff And MSM Of Colluding On 11th Hour Impeachment Bombshells.

• Northeast Next Stop For Large-Scale Winter Storm.

• Pentagon's No.2 General Says North Korea Building New Missiles "Fast".

• Climate-Kids' "Trump Is Endangering Our Future" Case Crushed By 9th Circuit Court.

• Retail Carnage Continues: Bose Lays Off 100s, Shutters All Retail Stores.

• Winter Storm To Blast Northeast Through Saturday.

• Human Rights Watch: China Is "Existential Threat" To Global Freedom.

• "Make Iran Great Again" - Trump Says "Noble Iranian People" Should "Abandon Terror".

• Melt-Up Mania: Stocks Reach Most Expensive, Most Overbought Levels, Surpassing DotCom Bubble.

Business Insider:   

• Best Buy is investigating claims that its CEO was romantically involved with a fellow executive.

• How Microsoft's next Xbox will end console wars with Sony.