Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -1.3%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Steel -4.1% 2) Banks -2.9% 3) Alt Energy -2.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• SLG, TPIC, AA, ITRI, EXP, OSK, FRC, HST, WCC, FITB, TAP, LNC, KBR, GIII, TSE, TKR, RF, WEN, TAP, LNC, XYL, MDP, UNM, ACM, FCX, GVA, FLR, FOX, WAB, LTHM, J, PWR, THC, HEES, MRCY, WKHS, SBNY, REGI, SNV, BE, JWN, CMC, FOXA, USCR, CAT, CFG, KEY, CATY, WAL, SUM, SPWR, SRG, STL, NXST, PBCT, STRL, VSTO, VMC, MLM, STRL, MLM, SBCF, HBAN, FSLR, SBGI, URI, TEX, CMA, ZION, MTB, RGR, SPWH, AMRC, ALLO, SWBI, TRHC and ANDE
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) ZNGA 2) CMCSA 3) EWW 4) HL 5) XHB
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) TRHC 2) ACB 3) BTU 4) PRGO 5) YAYO
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +4.7%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Biotech +6.4% 2) Healthcare Providers +5.7% 3) Pharma +5.6%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ATHA, BIIB, SMCI, TA, SUPN, LLY, CI, UBER, ANTM, UNH, RARE, GBT, ABBV, BHVN, LYFT, RPRX, RCKT, SNDX, INCY, BMY, PTCT, HUM, RIDE, BX, ADTN, MPWR, GOOG, ELY, LEN, XLNX, ECPG and NOC
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) RSX 2) BIIB 3) SAVA 4) GEO 5) EOLS

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) HUM 2) BMY 3) BIDU 4) AMD 5) CTLT
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +23.7% Above 100-Day Average
• 9 Sectors Rising, 2 Sectors Declining
• 61.5% of Issues Advancing, 36.8% Declining
• 67 New 52-Week Highs, 7 New Lows
• 54.4% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 47.2% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 225.0 +401.0 points
• Vix 28.9 -18.7%
• Total Put/Call .84 -20.0%
• TRIN/Arms .96 +88.9%

Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 66.75 -2.25 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 37.75 -1.5 basis points.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 58.99 +.77%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index -128.0 +264.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 30.20 -8.97%
• FTSE 100 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures +.71%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.47%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (CCJ)/-.05
• (HLT)/-.04
• (PRGO)/.86
• (SMG)/.06
• (WEN)/.17
  

After the Close:

• (ALB)/.76
• (ALL)/1.76
• (APA)/-.39
• (BLUE)/-3.02
• (CF)/.06
• (EXPE)/-.79
• (H)/-1.31
• (MRO)/-.28
• (MTCH)/.52
• (MELI)/.21
• (MET)/1.58
• (QCOM)/1.18
• (RGLD)/.84
  

Economic Releases

8:15 am EST

• The ADP Employment Change for Oct. is estimated to fall to 650K versus 749K in Sept.
  

8:30 am EST

• The Trade Balance for Sept. is estimated to shrink to -$63.9B versus -$67.1B in Aug.

10:00 am EST

• The ISM Services Index for Oct. is estimated to fall to 57.5 versus 57.8 in Sept.

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory gain of +581,900 barrels versus a +4,320,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -404,560 barrels versus a -892,000 decline prior. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -2,789,110 barrels versus a -4,491,000 barrel decline prior. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.43% versus a +1.7% gain prior.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone Services PMI report, Australia Balance of Trade report and the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Substantially Higher into Afternoon on Short-Covering, Anticipation of Less Election Uncertainty, Oil Gain, Retail/Healthcare Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 35.3 -4.9%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index -131.0 +262.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 126.81 +.42%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.8 +.42%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 66.8 -5.0%

• ISE Sentiment Index 133.0 +49.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.10 +12.2%

• NYSE Arms .93 +72.2%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 61.1 -4.1%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 833.96 -1.49%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 79.53 -5.97%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 135.0 -4.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 68.5 -2.5%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 212.27 -2.8%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 180.17 +.09%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 7.75 -.25 basis point

• TED Spread 12.75 -.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -13.75 +1.5 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  78.0 -1.25 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 66.75 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.0 +.73%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .09% unch.

• Yield Curve 70.75 unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 114.0 USD/Metric Tonne +1.08%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 128.90 -2.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 96.8 -4.8 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 60.10 -1.1 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.71 unch.
• 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 16th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Jan. 27th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +535 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -19 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -32 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my medical/consumer staple/industrial/tech/biotech sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +4.6% Above 100-Day Average
• 11 Sectors Rising, 0 Sectors Declining
• 83.5% of Issues Advancing, 15.0% Declining
• 51 New 52-Week Highs, 7 New Lows
• 48.1% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 43.0% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 95.0 +297.0 points
• Vix 34.9 -5.9%
• Total Put/Call .86 -12.2%
• TRIN/Arms .96 +88.9%