Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.5 +1.25 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 33.5 +.75 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.63 +.32%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,157.0 -18.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 21.55 +.27%.
• FTSE 100 futures +.36%.

• S&P 500 futures +.1%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.13%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (MSM)/1.03
• (SMPL)/.23
• (RPM)/.30
  

After the Close:

• (RGP)/.03
• (JEF)/.95
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Trade Deficit for Feb. is estimated to widen to -$70.5B versus -$68.2B in Jan.
  

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -1,638,000 barrels versus a -876,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -747,910 barrels versus a -1,735,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +645,910 barrels versus a +2,542,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.85% versus a +2.3% gain prior.

2:00 pm EST

• March 17 FOMC Meeting Minutes.
  

3:00 pm EST

• Consumer Credit for Feb. is estimated to rise to $2.8B versus -$1.315B in Jan.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China trade balance report, UK trade balance report, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, Wells Fargo Future Mobility Conference, (COST) March sales results, (CCL) 1Q update and the (LUMN) analyst day could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on US Economic Optimism, Lower Long-Term Rates, Oil Gain, Consumer Discretionary/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 18.0 +.5%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,150.0 -25.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.76 +.14%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.7 -1.0%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 50.6 +3.2%

• ISE Sentiment Index 122.0 +2.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .63 -8.7%

• NYSE Arms .90 -23.7%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.45 +.44%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 460.97 +.24%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.17 +.10%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 101.0 +5.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.58 +2.16%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 174.0 -1.25%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 189.0 +.02%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 13.75 unch.

• TED Spread 19.25 +.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.5 +1.25 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  70.0 +.25 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 73.25 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.60 +.28%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% -1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 152.0 -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 163.20 USD/Metric Tonne +.96%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 39.10 -1.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 166.70 -3.2 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 25.50 -.4 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.33 -3.0 basis points
• 100.0% chance of no change at June 16th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Sept. 22nd meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -6 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -53 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -4 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my /techmedical/biotech sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.2%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Networking -1.1% 2) Semis -.9% 3) Steel -.8%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• PENN, GBX, TPTX, ARES, UCTT and SRRK
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) PVH 2) VFC 3) CZR 4) RSX 5) DGLY
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) SOS 2) PENN 3) ACAD 4) PXD 5) LLY
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +1.2%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy +2.4% 2) Gaming +2.2% 3) Gold & Silver +2.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• RMO, GLSI, GBOX, CARA, CHPT, ILMN, PSAC, ROKU, GRBK, MDXG, YETI, CONN, NCLH, MYGN, VIAC, FREQ, PLBY, CCS, EYE, NFE, JOAN and AVTR
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) FLEX 2) BGCP 3) SIL 4) DHI 5) PAYX

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) SJ 2) SNAP 3) WYNN 4) ALK 5) CMG
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -23.5% Below 100-Day Average 
• 9 Sectors Rising, 2 Sectors Declining
• 59.3% of Issues Advancing, 37.2% Declining
• 232 New 52-Week Highs, 4 New Lows
• 89.3% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 54.3%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,150.0 -26.0 points
• Vix 17.9 +.2%
• Total Put/Call .57 -17.4%
• TRIN/Arms .86 -27.1%

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines 

Bloomberg:                            

• China Tests Biden With South China Sea Tactic That Misled Obama.
• Mexico Seeks to Ban Outsourcing After Agreement With Business.
• Asia Stocks Set to Rise After U.S. High; Oil Drops: Markets Wrap.
• Top Democrats Float Alternative to Biden’s Corporate-Tax Plan.
  
• BlackRock Breaks Wall Street Ranks With Planned Racial Audit.  
• NYC Tops Weekly Dose Goal; U.K. Set for Reopening: Virus Update.
• U.S. Airlines Are Bringing Back More Pilots as Travel Demand Rebounds.  
• Automakers Want Aid Set Aside for Car-Grade U.S. Chip Production.

Wall Street Journal:

• Yellen Calls for Global Minimum Corporate Tax Rate.
• GOP Criticizes Corporate Pushback on Voting Laws.
• Anatomy of a Biden Tax Hike.
• China Looms Large in Biden Infrastructure Plan.
• China Creates Its Own Digital Currency, a First for Major Economy.

Fox News:  

• Kemp believes Abrams has buyer's remorse after MLB boycott over Ga. law, accuses her of profiting.
• Rand Paul on MLB-Georgia controversy: 'If they want to boycott us, let's boycott them'.
• More MLB backlash: Texas governor won't throw first pitch at Rangers' opening back.

CNBC.com:

• Tom Lee explains why he expects to see a ‘face-ripper rally’ in April.
• Google will stop using Oracle’s finance software and adopt SAP instead.
• March jobs report gives the Fed room to keep interest rates low, Jim Cramer says.
• The Fed could come under fire for easy policy while the economy soars and inflation rises.
• GM unveils electric Hummer SUV topping $110,000. 
• Tim Cook drops some hints on Apple’s car plans, shares what he thinks of Elon Musk and Tesla.

Zero Hedge:

• Credit Suisse Dumping Huge Archegos Blocks; Liquidating Millions In VIACS, VIPS And FTCH.
• Sen. Rubio Hammers Hypocrite MLB Commish, Asks: Will You Give Up Augusta Golf Club Membership?
• South Korea's LG Abandons Smartphones As Electric Vehicles Business Sees Explosive Growth.
• Is Outside Air COVID-Safe? Are Masks Needed Outdoors?
• Japan Poised To Allow Coast Guard To Fire On Chinese Vessels In New Legislation .
• Monetary Policy At A Crossroad: Policymakers Need To Break Promise Of Easy Money To Avoid Boom-Bust.
• "It Was Intentionally False": 60 Minutes Slammed For Fabricating "Pay-For-Play" Narrative Against Gov. DeSantis.
• Jobs To Reach Pre-Pandemic Levels By Year-End: BofA.
• New York Millionaires To Pay Highest Income Tax In The Country.
• The Hunter Biden Show: Why Biden's Most "Beautiful Thing" May Be Media Collusion.
• Prosecutors Ask Jurors To Dismiss George Floyd Autopsy Findings.
• "Gestapo Not Allowed Here!" Viral Video Shows Canadian Pastor Barring 'Covid Police' From Entering Church.
• Dollar Dumped; Crude Crushed; Bonds, Bitcoin, & Big-Tech Bid.

Newsmax:

• Arizona AG Invites Harris on Border Tour to See Troubles There Firsthand.
• Biden Says Higher Corporate Taxes Won't Harm US Economy.
• Soros Group Pledges $20M to Boost Biden Plan.
  

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Psaki Refuses To Say if Joe Biden Will Stop Lying About Georgia’s New Election Law (VIDEO).
• Breaking: Democrat Sen. Joe Manchin Rejects Joe Biden’s Corporate Tax Increase – Says More Democrats Will Join Him.
• Tim Cook from Apple Condemns Voter ID Law in Georgia — Forgets It Takes a Valid ID to Get an Apple Card.
• United Airlines Inserts Itself Into Political Arena, Condemns Voter Integrity Laws.

The Epoch Times:

• Chinese Officials Trying to Dodge COVID-19 Vaccinations, Citing Health Reasons: Leaked Documents.
• Philippines Issues Tough Statement to China as South China Sea Tensions Intensify.

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 63.25 -.5 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 32.75 unch.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.44 +.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,176.0 +1.0 point.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 21.5 +.04%.
• FTSE 100 futures +.94%.

• S&P 500 futures -.02%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.13%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (GBX)/-.37
• (LNN)/.86
• (PAYX)/.92
  

After the Close:

• (PACW)/.91
  

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• JOLTS Job Openings for Feb. is estimated to fall to 6900 versus 6917 in Jan.
  

Upcoming Splits

• (AVNW) 2-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China Services PMI report, RBA rate decision, Eurozone Retail Sales report, weekly US retail sales reports, Wells Fargo Biotech Corporate Access Day and the (AMAT) investor meeting could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.