Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 4,514.2 +2.4%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

• DJIA 34,836.9 +1.2%

• NASDAQ 14,023.7 +2.9%

• Russell 2000 1,920.77 +3.8%

• NYSE FANG+ 7,818.6 +4.2% 
• Roundhill Meme Stock ETF 35.45 +7.5%
  

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 154.6 +6.5%

• Wilshire 5000 45,122.7 +2.5%

• Russell 1000 Growth 2,831.6 +3.2%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,568.1 +1.8%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 758.12 -.37%

• MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,253.72 +3.0%
  

• NYSE Technology 3,839.4 +5.5%

• Transports 15,822.1 +1.2%

• Utilities 866.6 -2.0%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 85.17 +1.49%
  

• MSCI Emerging Markets 39.7 +1.8%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 193.47 -.10%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 103.18 -.14%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 465,712 +1.40%
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.9 +78.0%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -551 +411
  

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -29.8 -.3%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 234,371 -3.2%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,623,347 -4.66%

• Total Put/Call 1.01 -16.4%

• OEX Put/Call 2.02 +42.5%

• ISE Sentiment 98.0 +21.0 points
  

• NYSE Arms .70 -23.3%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 70.2 +2.0%
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .47 +7.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index .10 +16.0 basis points
  

• Volatility(VIX) 13.1 -15.9%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.21% -38.8%

• CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 18.9 -17.6%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.9 -3.4%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.6 -3.1%

• Smart Money Flow Index 12,807.9 +.16%
• NAAIM Exposure Index  61.2 +26.8
  

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $5.583 Trillion +.26%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$14.047 Million

• AAII % Bulls 33.1 +2.5%

• AAII % Bears 34.5 -3.9%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 284.4 +1.3%

• Crude Oil 85.8/bbl. +6.8%

• Reformulated Gasoline 258.6 -1.4%

• Natural Gas 2.77 +8.5%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 35.6 euros/megawatt-hour +1.8%
  

• Heating Oil 310.6 -6.2% 
• Newcastle Coal 156.0 (1,000/metric ton) -2.8%
  

• Gold 1,941.1 +1.3%
• Silver 24.2 -.13%
  

• S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 414.6 +1.2%

• Copper 385.2 +2.3%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 364.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.55%

• China Iron Ore Spot 115.2 USD/Metric Tonne +4.5%

• CME Lumber  506.0 -2.6%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,603.5 +.63%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 331.5 USD/Short Ton +.91%
  

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow 2Q Forecast +5.64% -27.0 basis points
  

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate (graph)
  
• US Recession Within 3 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 25.0% -.5 percentage point
  

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 1.94 +15.5%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 279.56 +68.9%
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(496 of 500 reporting) -5.6% n/a

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 237.79 n/a:  Growth Rate +8.1% n/a, P/E 19.0 n/a
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.21% +1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +24.3% n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 243.88 n/a: Growth Rate +47.1% n/a, P/E 32.0 n/a
  

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 52.1 -7.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -62.1 -4.8 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 6.1 +4.5 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0%(-0.0 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 5.0-5.25%, 93.0%(+5.0 percentage points) chance of no change, 7.0%(-5.0 percentage points) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 5.5-5.75% on 9/20
  

• US Dollar Index 104.25 +.03%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,677.41 +.02%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 25,621.0 -2.4%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 166.93 -.31%
  

• Yield Curve(2s/10s) -70.0 +14.5 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.17% -7.0 basis points
  

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $8.085 Trillion -.23% 
• Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $2.204 Billion +13.8%
  

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 47.9 +6.2%
  

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 191.2 -5.0%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 169.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 27.2 -10.1%
  

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 71.5 -14.0%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 166.21 -5.7%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 54.23 -1.0%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 31.9 -7.2%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.94 +.56%
• China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 79.90 +9.5%
  

• Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +6.0% unch.
  
• Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +3.6% unch.
  
• US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +4.9% unch.
  
• CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +4.0% unch.
  
• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.0% -20.0 basis points: CPI YoY +3.8% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.26% -6.0 basis points
  

• TED Spread 25.5 +4.5 basis points
  
• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -10.5 +2.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -11.5 +1.0 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 63.57 -3.5%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 182.0 -3.7% 
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 364.0 +18.0
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 80.36 -5.0%
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 261.4-1.6%

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 198.4 -3.1%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 162.0 -14.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 804.0 +32.0 basis point
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .73 -2.0 basis points
  

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change -3.7% -10.0 basis points
  

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,184.5 +1.9%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 237,500 +.11%
  

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
  
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 47.15 -.02%
  

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 7.53% -4.0 basis points
  

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 189,000 +2.3%

• Weekly Retail Sales +2.0% +70.0 basis points
  
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY -5.0% unch.
  
• Box Office Weekly Gross YoY $37.3M -35.3%
  

• Nationwide Gas $3.82/gallon -.01/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,086.0 -2.2%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 893.0 -.19%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 25.0 -9.1%
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 39.3 +14.1%

• Rail Freight Carloads 245,846 -1.6%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,599,387 +26.0%
  

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value +3.8%
  

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Value +1.8%

Leading Sectors

• Computer Hardware +8.5%

• Disk Drives +8.3%
• Oil Service +6.4%
  

• Homebuilding +6.0%
  

• Steel +5.5%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Restaurants unch.
  

• Pharma -.2%
  

• Foods -1.2%

• Healthcare Providers -1.2%
  

• Utilities -2.0%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (35)

• DELL, IOT, NTNX, LOVE, SLRN, HE, RLAY, GCT, COGT, NXGN, PSTG, XMTR, OII, PTEN, NTRA, ACMR, AMR, IMVT, TXG, HPE, AFRM, LPG, VEEV, CRGY, S, VERV, BTU, MOD, MDB, ALKT, LRN, SBRA, RNG, OHI and CMC
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (11)

• HCP, ERII, DG, PD, WBA, PARA, OLN, WBD, NXST, GH and SBGI
  

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Reversing Slightly Lower into Afternoon on Rising Long-Term Rates, Dollar Strength, Technical Selling, Utility/Food Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.1 -3.2%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .74%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 70.1 +2.2%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 167.0 -.13%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.6 -.35%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 18.8 -.84% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 103.0 -23.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .92 -3.2%

• NYSE Arms .70 -46.6%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 63.6 +.44%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 312.12 -1.57%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 364.0 +18.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 80.3 -1.2% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 261.3 -.27%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 169.0 basis points +4.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 123.2 -4.5%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 198.67 -1.5%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.94 +.69%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -10.25 basis points -.25 basis point
  

• TED Spread 24.25 basis points +2.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -11.5 -.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 163.0 -6.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 804.0 +7.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 73.0 -1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 42.6 -.08%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.42% -3.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 116.1 USD/Metric Tonne +1.8%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 35.6 euros/megawatt-hour +1.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 52. +5.7 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -62.1 -4.0 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 6.1 +8.8 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(496 of 500 reporting) -5.6%  +.4 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 237.79 +.05:  Growth Rate +8.2% unch., P/E 18.9 -.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.21% +1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +24.3% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 243.88 +.27: Growth Rate +47.1% +.2 percentage point, P/E 32.0 -.3
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .47 +3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .10 -7.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -69.0 basis points (2s/10s) +9.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +5.63% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.03% unch.: CPI YoY +3.82% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.27 +2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Nov. 1st FOMC meeting: 63.9%(+5.0 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 13th meeting: 61.3%(+4.2 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +20 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +88 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +39 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial/transport sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth unch.
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Utilities -1.0% 2) Foods -.7% 3) Telecom -.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• ARLP, GNL, AVGO, DG, PD, WBA, ERII, PARA, MLTX, WBD, OLN, NXST, SBGI and VFS
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) DELL 2) EDR 3) WBD 4) ARCC 5) HZNP
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) OLN 2) DG 3) DKS 4) AVGO 5) STLA
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +1.5%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Computer Hardware +4.0% 2) Oil Service +3.1% 3) Regional Banks +2.6%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• DELL, NTNX, LOVE, IOT, SLRN, HE, PTEN, RLAY, PSTG, OII, NXGN, COGT, CDLX, TDW, IMVT, GCT, XMTR, ALLY, VERV, CEIX, AMR, TXG, HPE, ACMR, LRN, LPG, CDLX, S, MDB, WWE, DOMO, LBRT, CRGY, DVN, MOD, VEEV, OKTA, PEGA and BTU
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) DELL 2) FOXA 3) DBI 4) NTNX 5) LULU

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) DELL 2) NTNX 3) EOSE 4) AMRK 5) ESTC
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tuesday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (CRMT)/.91

After the Close: 

• (AVAV)/.26
• (ASAN)/-.11
• (ZS)/.49
  

Economic Releases  

10:00 am EST

• Factory Orders for July is estimated to fall -2.5% versus a +2.3% gain in June.
• Factory Orders Ex Transports for July is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in June.
• Final Durable Goods Orders readings for July.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China Services PMI report, Citi BioPharma Conference, Barclays Consumer Staples Conference, Barclays Energy-Power Conference, Citi Tech/GEMS Conference and the Goldman Communacopia Conference could also impact global trading on Tuesday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• NYSE Volume Running -11.5% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.4 -.5
  
• 3 Sectors Declining, 8 Sectors Rising
• 69.7% of Issues Advancing, 27.4% Declining
• 98 New 52-Week Highs, 14 New Lows
• 50.9%(+5.4%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 56.0 +1.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 70.2 +2.4%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,624.1 -.61%
• 1-Day Vix 9.5 -25.2%
  
• Vix 13.3 -2.0%
  
• Total Put/Call .90 -53%
• TRIN/Arms .68 -48.1%