Stocks Modestly Lower into Afternoon on China Economy Worries, Higher Long-Term Rates, Dollar Strength, Homebuilding/Gambling Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.9 +.7%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .74%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 71.7 +1.4%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 167.9 +.15%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.6 unch.

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 18.8 -.84% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 128.0 +38.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .91 -6.2%

• NYSE Arms .69 -1.4%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 63.6 +.44%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 308.5 -1.5%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 364.0 unch.
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 80.1 +1.2% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 263.9 +1.6%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 173.0 basis points +4.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 120.6 -.72%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 200.24 +.79%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.91 -.02%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -10.25 basis points unch.
  

• TED Spread 25.25 basis points +1.0 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -11.75 -.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 164.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 804.0 unch.
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 73.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 42.3 -.52%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.42% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 116.6 USD/Metric Tonne +1.4%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 34.4 euros/megawatt-hour +2.6%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 56.5 +3.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -62.1 unch.

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 7.0 +.9 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(496 of 500 reporting) -5.8%  -.2 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 238.38 +.59:  Growth Rate +8.4% +.2 percentage point, P/E 18.9 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.14% -7.0 basis points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +25.4% +1.1 percentage points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 245.41 +1.52: Growth Rate +48.0% +.9 percentage point, P/E 31.9 -.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .40 +6.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .163 -73.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -70.0 basis points (2s/10s) -1.0 basis point
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +5.64% +1.0 basis point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.03% unch.: CPI YoY +3.82% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.29 +2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Nov. 1st FOMC meeting: 57.5%(-7.1 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 13th meeting: 56.8%(-5.1 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +113 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -11 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +25 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my tech sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -1.8%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Homebuilding -5.0% 2) Gambling -3.0% 3) Telecom -2.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• ATEN, RMD, JE, JBI, HUBB, TRMD, FRO, LI, TCOM, SAEF, WWE, HKIT, VFS, NTGR, AAN, HE and MANU
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) GTLB 2) JETS 3) MSOS 4) GLW 5) WM
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) MANU 2) PHM 3) LEN 4) AGTI 5) EOSE
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.1%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Disk Drives +19% 2) Oil Service +1.6% 3) Energy +1.4%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• INSM, CABA, OLMN, BRC, ZLAB, LBRT, ASAI, HASI, ABNB, NXGN, GCT, SGML, MTN, LUNG, APLE, OMCL, PINC, BXMT, XRX, HSAI, MNSO, CF, TRIP, PINS, DO, PSTG, IONQ, UDMY, DWAC, BX, AB, FTI, OXY, ASLE, EOG, ASLE, FTI, CATY and TSLA
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) GTLB 2) XLU 3) ABNB 4) CDE 5) DOW

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) BRC 2) MTN 3) KLAC 4) NXGN 5) BX
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note
  

After the Close: 

• (AEO)/.16
• (AI)/-.12
• (PLAY)/.95
• (GME)/-.14
• (VRNT)/.57
  

Economic Releases  

8:30 am EST

• The Trade Deficit for July is estimated to widen to -$68.0B versus -$65.5B in June.
  

10:00 am EST

• The ISM Services Index for Aug. is estimated to fall to 52.5 versus 52.7 in July.
  

2:00 pm EST

• US Fed Beige Book release.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Australia GDP report, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, Wells Fargo Healthcare Conference, Jefferies Industrials Conference, weekly US retail sales reports, TD Cowen Transport Conference, UBS Chemicals Conference, (ALGN) investor day, (DHR) investor meeting, (HUBS) analyst day and the Evercore ISI Semi/Semi Equip Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• NYSE Volume Running -6.0% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.0 -.4
  
• 7 Sectors Declining, 4 Sectors Rising
• 23.7% of Issues Advancing, 73.0% Declining
• 37 New 52-Week Highs, 43 New Lows
• 47.1%(-5.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 52.0 -4.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 71.7 +1.4%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,796.4 +.88%
• 1-Day Vix 8.4 -19.4%
  
• Vix 13.95 +.95%
  
• Total Put/Call .89 -8.3%
• TRIN/Arms .72 +2.9%
  

Tuesday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Huawei Teardown Shows Chip Breakthrough in Blow to US Sanctions.
• Xi’s Unexplained G-20 Snub Erodes Image as Global Statesman. 
• China’s Mortgage Relaxation Spurs Weekend Sales in Mega Cities.
• Country Garden Has Just Days to Avoid Default on Dollar Bonds.
• Debt Crisis Threatens to Engulf China’s Surviving Developers.
• Kim Jong-Un Seeks ‘Leader-Level’ Talks With Russia on Arms Deals, US Says.
• Trafigura Says ‘Fragile’ Oil Market May Be Prone to Price Spikes.
• Brazil Analysts Lift Growth Bets After Economy Outperformed Anew. 
• Asia Stocks Set to Fall as China Property in Focus: Markets Wrap.
• Stocks Cede China-Led Gains in Thin Holiday Trade: Markets Wrap. 
• Oil Executives Are Surprisingly Optimistic on Chinese Demand.
• Iran’s Booming Oil Exports Are Poised to Slow for Rest of Year
• Labor Day Progress Report: A Shift Down to Cruising Speed for US Job Market.
• US Stock Investors’ Complacency is Worrying, JPMorgan Strategists Warn. 

Zero Hedge:

• Watch: Fauci Squirms As CNN Anchor Confronts Him With Data Showing Masks Don't Work.
• Retailer's Revenge! Obese Jewelry Thief Gets Whipped Then Stripped.
• The Economist Who Cried Recession.
• Bond MOVEs and tech trust.
• Biden 'Not Worried' About Major UAW Strike On Automakers.
• Round Two Of A Foreign-Backed Plot To Fragment Syria.
• Labor Day News Round Up - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Biden Built 'Predictable' Loophole That Resulted In Flood Of Illegal "Family Units" Into US.
• Drunk Drivers Causing Parental Deaths Now Liable For Child Support In Texas.
• Zuckerberg's "Twitter Killer" App Struggles For Traction. 
• Victor Davis Hanson: What The Left Did To Our Country. 
• Goldilocks And The Four Bears.
• Simple Joe: Biden's Biggest Fear Is Being Perceived As 'Stupid' According To Biographer. 
• Key Events This Week: It's A Slow Start To The Unofficial Beginning Of Fall. 
• Musk's Father Worried About Assassination After Escalating Attacks. 
• Republicans Last Chance: "A Dreadful Time Of Testing Whether The Country Can Endure Any More Of This".
• Chinese Property Stocks Soar After Latest Beijing Support, Country Garden Debt Deal.
• Vivek Ramaswamy Now A White Supremacist, According To Democrat Party.
• US Stock-Bond Ratio Poised To Keep Downward Bias.
• Futures, Global Stocks Rise As China Property Rescue Kicks In; US Markets Closed For Labor Day.
• Zelensky Sacks Defense Minister In Biggest Shake-Up Since War's Start.
• Pfizer Asks Court To Revoke Moderna's COVID-19 Vaccine Patents.
• British Court Rules That Competent & Conscious Patient Can Be Denied Life-Sustaining Treatment Against Her Will.
• France To Ban Abayas In Schools.
• German Electricity Imports Hit New Record As Nuclear Phase-Out Increases Production Cost.
• Downfall Of The Brexit Doomers.
• Country Garden bolsters APAC performance; ECB speak due - Newsquawk Europe Market Open.
• Direct Government Censorship Of The Internet Is Here.
• Air Force Wants To Replace Highly Effective Modern A-10 With 'Flying Tinderbox'.
• 15 Years On, Google's Chrome Has Taken Over The World.
• Conflicting Dates In Trump Trials Unfair, Must Be Resolved, Experts Say.
• Japan Seeks Record Defense Budget Amid Threats From China, North Korea.

Wall Street Journal:

• Biden’s Age, Economic Worries Endanger Re-Election in 2024, WSJ Poll Finds.
• Chinese Gate-Crashers at Bases Spark Concerns.
• Inside a Sales Army Turning a Tax Break Into a Modern-Day Gold Rush.
• Cities to Cruise Ships: You’re Bringing Too Many Tourists Here.
• Investors Head Into Fall With Jitters After Summer Rally.
• How Worried Should We Be About AI’s Threat to Humanity? Even Tech Leaders Can’t Agree.
• Who Should Eat the Cost of Pricier Delivery Menus?
• Top Job for Congress: Avoiding a Government Shutdown.
• China Creates Government Body to Support Private Sector.
• Austin Russell Doesn’t Want Self-Driving Cars to Replace Humans.
• Labor Could Be Detroit’s Next Big Disruption.
• Warren Buffett’s Green Cash Washes Over Coal Country.

CNBC:

• Germany is the ‘sick man of Europe’ — and it’s causing a shift to the right, top economist says.
• Oil giant led by COP28 boss to spend $1 billion a month on fossil fuels this decade: Global Witness.
• Delta is the No. 1 domestic airline for on-time arrivals, service, comfort and more.
• Why youth unemployment is surging in China. 
• Biden’s age, economic record are major concerns as Trump rematch looms: Poll.

Reuters:

• Mercedes-Benz: Europe likely won't be ready for all-electric sales by 2030.
• Dollar eases as risk appetite improves on China's measures.
• Oil stable on prospect of extended OPEC+ supply cuts.

MarketWatch.com:

• Energy stocks getting ready to take the lead again after crude’s August bounce, says strategist.
• Bad economic news is good news for stocks. When will that change?

NewsMax:

• Trump: Election 'Rigging' by Indictment 'Won't Hold Up'.
• Rep. Tim Burchett: Elderly, Weak Are Swamp's 'Gravy Train'. 
• GOP to Seize on Accounting Error in Ukraine Aid Fight.

Fox News:

• Attempt to bar Trump from 2024 ballot gains steam despite legal arguments.
• Hospital employee leaks DEI training pushing 3-year-olds identifying as transgender.
• Governor sends illegal immigrants to Democrat's doorstep but there's no red carpet treatment.
• Fauci makes pivotal admission about masking making a comeback.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Welcome to Campus: College Freshmen Given Condoms, Sexually Explicit Content in “Welcome” Package at North Carolina State.
• VIDEO: Lesbian Marxist American Library Association President Brags About Subverting “Normal Family Types” and Makes Anti-White Statements.
• Biden’s America: Majority Living Paycheck to Paycheck, Even Six-Figure Earners Overwhelmed.
• Burning Man Descends Into Chaos, Attendees Turn on Each Other as They Desperately Try to Flee Muddy Hellhole, Chris Rock Escapes in Back of Fan’s Truck (VIDEO).
• So Much for Free Speech: Twitter Shuts Down Generation Identity after Meeting with ADL’s Jonathan Greenblatt.
• Unfit to Serve? Obesity Epidemic Creating Recruitment Woes, National Security Risk – Biden’s DEI Policies Don’t Help.
• ‘Fight Fire with Fire’: Trump Calls on Republican DAs and AGs to Get Up Off the Mat.
• Chicago Teachers Union President Opposes School Choice, Except for Her Child.
• J6 Political Prisoner Zachary Alams’ Defense Attorneys PROMISE to Put Ashli Babbit’s Murderer Officer Michael Byrd on Stand at September 5th Trial!
• Wait, What? Even the CDC Now Admits That the Vaccinated Likely Have a Higher Risk of Infection With New Covid Variant.
• Use”Paper and Pencil… Digital Records are More Permanent:” Colorado Teachers Union Directs Educators How to HIDE and DESTROY Evidence of LGBTQ Indoctrination. 
• CDC & FDA Ignored U.S. Military Investigation Revealing Vaccine Failures, New FOIA Documents Reveal.
• Massachusetts Calls Up National Guard To Cope With Ilegal Immigrants Amid Protests.
• “Be Careful What You Wish For!” – President Trump Warns Democrats and DC Elites What Waits for Them When He Wins Again.
• Vaccine? No, it’s Long-Long Covid – ‘Experts’ Publish Warning That Covid Can Kill For Up to TWO YEARS Post-Infection.

The Epoch Times:  

• 6 Countries Reject China's New '10-Dash Line' Map That Includes Taiwan.
• US-China Tech Freeze Worries US Investors, Startups.
• China’s Economy Remains a Bad Bet.
• US Must Be ‘Vigilant’ of Chinese Investors Buying Farmland, Businesses: Commerce Secretary.

Twitter:

• @XVanFleet - Joseph Bast, former president and CEO of The Heartland Institute on the "climate" agenda: "Back in 1993, we identified 'global warming' as the mother of all environmental scare tactics…..Groups on the left understood that if you can control energy, you can control human beings. (video)
• @matttttt187 - UN food chief, David Beasley, warns that "hell on earth" food shortages will occur in 2023, as a result of fertiliser shortages. (video)
• @ANTIWEF - Hellman’s mayonnaise is now made with “bioengineered sources”. (pic)
• @TomFitton - Arson Confirmed as the Cause of Louisiana's Largest-Ever Wildfire in History (VIDEO).
• @DrJBhattacharya - At the @UMich, students testing covid positive must leave their dorms for 5 days & live in the community. A hotel room or a relative's house is ok. This cruel policy is designed to spread covid from the university into the wild. It won't stop covid from spreading @umich.
• @betterworld_24 - CDC Has Released a Public Statement Apparently you are more susceptible and more likely to contract "BA.2.86" if you have been VACCINATED. (video)
  

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 983,973 Reports(+1,886 from prior week) Through August 25th, 2023.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 117.5 -8.5 basis points.
  
• China Sovereign CDS 69.5 -6.5 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 115.1 USD/Metric Tonne +.34%.
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 42.5 -.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 70.75 +.03%.
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .34 unch. 
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 16.15 -.37%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.
• S&P 500 futures -.05%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.04%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by financial and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.