Stocks Close at Session Highs on US Economic "Soft-Landing" Hopes, Lower Long-Term Rates, Short-Covering, Tech/Biotech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.3 -.7%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .58% -27.7%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 57.2 -2.0%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 169.88 -.19%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.79 -1.6%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 19.5 -4.9% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 109.0 -36.0
  

• Total Put/Call .81 -33.0%

• NYSE Arms 1.49 +129.2% 
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$144.1M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 57.69 -3.1%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 341.33 -1.5%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 298 +1
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 72.96 +.4% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 222.5 -.45%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 168.0 basis points -2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 104.1 +2.0%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 181.92 -.03%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 113.68 +.76%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.24 unch.

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -15.0 basis points +1.75 basis points
  

• TED Spread 22.5 basis points +.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.5 +1.0 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 145.0 -4.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 966.0 unch.
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 74.0 -1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.3 -.11%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.37% -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 137.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.36%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.6 euros/megawatt-hour -8.6%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 5.9 -.2 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -17.4 +13.9 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 17.5 +2.0 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(21 of 500 reporting) +9.1% unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 243.63 +.15:  Growth Rate +12.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 19.4 +.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.05% +1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +0.0% -0.0 percentage points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 290.37 +.34: Growth Rate +36.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 29.5 +.4
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index n/a
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .39 -1.0 basis point
  
• US Yield Curve -35.5 basis points (2s/10s) unch.
  
• US Atlanta Fed 4Q GDPNow Forecast +2.51% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 64.2% +1.2 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.02% unch.: CPI YoY +3.32% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.23 unch.
  
• Highest target rate probability for March 20th FOMC meeting: 60.9%(-1.2 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for May 1st meeting: 51.1%(-2.1 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +538 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +22 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +127 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary/biotech/utility/transport sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.1%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Oil Service -3.2% 2) Energy -1.9% 3) Shipping -1.8%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• SIBN, SBLK, STNG, FIVE, AMPH, EXAS, LBRT, SPR, EXEL, BA, BROS, AIR, DVAX, ZIM, FNA, RGNX and PRTA
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) DLO 2) LUMN 3) DXCM 4) BA 5) ALLY
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) DADA 2) AUDA 3) SPR 4) GCO 5) BA
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +1.7%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Computer Hardware +3.3% 2) Semis +3.1% 3) Airlines +2.4%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• HARP, AMAM, RXST, AXNX, CROX, TREE, EWCZ, SIDU, GCT, CORT, CYTK, STAA, MGNX, ANF, MARA, TWLO, TXG and RXRX
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) DLO 2) SPR 3) ELAN 4) ARDX 5) ONON

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) RXST 2) CROX 3) STAA 4) CORT 5) UPWK
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (AYI)/3.23
• (ACI)/.65
• (NEOG)/.03
• (SNX)/2.67
• (TLRY)/-.05
  

After the Close: 

• (AZZ)/1.00
• (PSMT)/1.09
• (SGH)/.16
• (WDFC)/1.04
• (MSM)/1.30
  

Economic Releases

6:00 am EST

• The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for Dec. is estimated to rise to 90.8 versus 90.6 in Nov.
  

8:30 am EST

• The Trade Deficit for Nov. is estimated to widen to -$64.9B versus -$64.3B in Oct.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Barr speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow 4Q Update, weekly US retail sales reports, 3Y T-Note auction, EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock report, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index, JPMorgan Healthcare Conference, (CMC) annual meeting, (LNN) annual meeting, (DELL) investor meeting and the ISI Retail/Consumer Summit could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +1.0% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.7 +1.7
  
• 4 Sectors Declining, 7 Sectors Rising
• 65.3% of Issues Advancing, 32.5% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.62 +149.2% 
• Non-Block Money Flow +$93.2M
  
• 42 New 52-Week Highs, 23 New Lows
• 62.9%(+1.1%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 63.0 -2.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 56.1 -3.9%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 137.6 -.11%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,105.8 +1.1%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 71.0 (Greed) -2.0
• 1-Day Vix 8.8 -11.7%
  
• Vix 13.4 +.3%
  
• Total Put/Call .89 -26.5%

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Xi’s Solution for China’s Economy Risks Triggering New Trade War.
• China Sanctions Five US Defense Firms on Taiwan Arms Sales.
• Bond Sales Hit Record Pace as Emerging Markets See Year of Risks.
• These Are the Five Potential Trouble Spots That Could Knock the Global Economy Off Course.
• Blinken Calls Gaza Situation Dire as Risks Grow of Wider War.
• Boeing Max Grounding Goes Global as Carriers Follow FAA Order. 
• Asia Stocks in Narrow Ranges Before Inflation Data: Markets Wrap.
• Senate to Present Funding Package This Week, Lawmakers Say.
• Hundreds of Flights Canceled Due to Storms Across the US.
• US Animal Shelters in ‘Crisis’ From Surge in Unwanted Dogs.
• JPMorgan Strategists See Treasuries’ Rally Resuming After ‘Rest’.
• Investors Are Looking to Share Buybacks to Keep US Stock Market Afloat. 
• Boeing CEO’s Comeback Plan for 2024 Takes a Blow Five Days In.
• Fed Pivot Will Dominate Year of Rate Cuts in Turn of Global Cycle. 
• High-Flying Profit Forecasts Head Back Down to Earth. 
• Biden Faces Increasing Pressure for Border Measures in CBS Poll.
• Five Key Charts to Watch in Global Commodity Markets This Week.

Zero Hedge:

• Pension Fund Crisis? Calstrs Seeks $30 Billion In Leverage Amid CRE Turmoil. 
• 'High On Likes': Driving Under The Influence Of Social Media At The Crossroad Of Freedom & Serfdom.
• "Largest Selling Since Mid-October": Hedge Funds, Long-Onlies Resume Dumping Tech Stocks At Furious Pace.
• Positioning and technical indicators flash warning signs.
• New Hampshire House Passes Bill Banning Genital Transgender Surgery On Children.
• Speaker Johnson Announces $1.66 Trillion Bipartisan Package To Avert Shutdown.
• Weekend News Round Up - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• BRICS Expands Footprint In The Global South.
• Is Biden About To Put 10 Million Hispanics On The Path To American Citizenship?
• "Gobsmackingly Bananas": Weather Models Predict Polar Vortex Invasion Into US . 
• Paxlovid Does Not Reduce Risk Of Long COVID, Potentially Linked To Rebound Symptoms: Study. 
• An Eclectic Mix Of Things To Mull Over.
• Saturday Night Drive-By: Citing Anonymous Sources, WSJ Smears Musk As Drug Abuser.
• After Shooting Ashli Babbitt, Capitol Police Lt. Made False Radio Report: Lawsuit.
• Pension Fund Crisis? Calstrs Seeks $30 Billion In Leverage Amid CRE Turmoil.
• Two Weeks To Fix Three Problems - Will Republicans Cave Again?
• For Third Straight Year, Texas Is Top Destination For U-Haul Renters.
• ZeroHedge Live Debate: Was January 6 A Manufactured Crisis?
• Visualizing 50 Years Of Video Game Revenues, By Platform.
• The Diabolical Dozen: The Twelve "Most-Significant COVID Events".
• On Shaky Ground: These Are The Countries Hit Most By Earthquakes.
• Artificial Intelligence Is Allowing Them To Construct A Global Surveillance Prison From Which No Escape Is Possible.
• Obama's Weird New Movie And America's Extreme Vulnerability To Cyber-Attack.
• Global Security In 2024: 5 Contextual Trends, 10 Possibilities.
• The Perfidious Unreality Of The "New Normal".
• Hezbollah Strikes Israel Intel Base With 60+ Rockets As "Initial Response" To Hamas Leader Assassination.
• An Explainer Of Jan. 6 And Its Aftermath.
• St. Louis Mask Mandate Rescinded Less Than 24 Hours After Woke Health Officials Get Trigger Happy.
• US Warship Downs Houthi Drone Over Red Sea "In Self-Defense".
• White House Wasn't Aware For Days That Defense Secretary Austin Was Hospitalized.
• "The Death Toll Of A Global War": Bret Weinstein And Tucker Discuss COVID Vaccine, WHO's Authoritarian Plans For Humanity.

Wall Street Journal: 

• Bill Ackman’s Friend Inside Harvard’s Board.
• Top U.S. Economists Are Short-Term Happy, Long-Term Glum.
• ‘Is It OK if I Hold Your Hand?’: Inside the Cabin of Alaska Airlines Flight 1282.
• The Stock Rally Has Stalled. Now Comes Earnings Season.
• Can Stocks Surpass 2022 Highs? Yes, but the Math Looks Scarier From There.
• James Gorman Just Wrapped Up a Successful Tenure at Morgan Stanley. It Almost Didn’t Turn Out That Way.
• Claudine Gay and the Cheating Crisis on Campus. Academic dishonesty and crime are alike: No one will prosecute them if justice is hard to come by.

CNBC:

• U.S. congressional leaders reach deal on a top-line spending agreement to try to avoid a government shutdown.
• Largest U.S. radio company Audacy files for bankruptcy protection as ad sales tank.
• Americans are racking up more ‘phantom debt’ — why that’s a problem.
• FAA grounds more than 170 Boeing 737 Max 9s after section of Alaska Airlines plane blows out.
• The 2023 U.S. economy, in a dozen charts.
• Top Wall Street analysts prefer these 3 stocks for long-term growth.

Reuters:

• Spirit Aero made blowout part but Boeing has key role.
• China's COSCO halts shipping to Israel -Israeli media.

MarketWatch.com:

• Why stock-market investors will remain at mercy of shifting rate-cut expectations after wobbly start to 2024.
• Apple’s stock has started 2024 on a sour note not seen in 42 years.
• Whether or not it’s technically a recession, the U.S. is headed for a soft patch, economists say.

NewsMax:

• Trump: 'Haley Will Sell You Out Just Like She Sold Me Out'.
• Trump Accuses Nikki Haley of Globalist Ties.
• For Israel's Hostage Families, Despondency Sets In.
• Fleitz: 'Real Possibility' of Wider Middle East War.
• $1.59T Govt Funding Breakthrough May Avert Shutdown.
• Blinken to Arab Leaders: US Against Palestinian Displacement.

Fox News:

• DNC turns on state party, condemns strategic move as 'detrimental' to presidential election process.
• US hospitals under fire for forcing patients and visitors to wear masks: 'Here we go again'.
• Bad news for Chick-fil-A lovers on a budget as devotees are hit with a spicy blow to wallets.
• Taylor Swift fans go scorched earth on NY Times after op-ed questions her sexuality.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• George Stephanopoulos Stunned After Pelosi Suggests States Can Overrule Constitution and Ban Trump From Presidential Ballot (VIDEO).
• Deputy Defense Secretary – Who Was on Vacation in Puerto Rico – Was NOT TOLD Lloyd Austin Was Hospitalized When She Assumed His Duties.
• Report: Taliban Visited North Korea Seeking Nuclear Weapons.
• New Hampshire House of Representatives Passes Defend The Guard Act to Prohibit National Guard Deployment in Overseas Combat Unless Congress Officially Declares War.
• Biden Regime to Remove Statue of William Penn For “Rehabilitation” Project to Commemorate Native Americans.
• SHOCK VIDEO: Los Angeles Bakery Ransacked By 100 Looters After Driver Crashes Through Storefront (VIDEO).
• Trump on Track to Win More Black Votes Than Any Other Republican Presidential Candidate in History.
• WATCH: Team USA Defeats Sweden 6-2 in the World Juniors Gold Medal Championship Game, Proudly Sings National Anthem on the Ice.
• DC US Attorney Matthew Graves Says DOJ is Now Going to Target THOUSANDS of Americans Who Were Around the Capitol on Jan 6 – But Did Not Enter the Building (VIDEO).
• Agam Goldstein Almog, a 17-year-old Girl Kidnapped by Hamas Terrorists, Shares Harrowing Details of Captivity(Video).
• Desperate For Votes: Biden Claims His Administration Approved $132 Billion In Student Loan Forgiveness.
• IDF Finds Evidence Iran Aided Hamas in Developement of Cruise Missile Capabilities.
• In His First Campaign Speech – Joe Biden Lies and Says He Went to Funerals of Imaginary Police Officers Who Were Killed on Jan. 6 – A Complete Lie!
• ‘Release the J6 Hostages’: Trump Calls on Biden to Free January 6th Protesters During Iowa Speech (VIDEO).
• Did You Shop at These Stores? If You Did, Thieves May Already Have Your Credit Card Info.
• Far Left UC-Berkeley Has Built A WALL to Keep Protesters Away From the Construction of a New Building.
• WHAT A SHAME: The Liberal Washington Post is Losing $100 Million a Year and Online Engagement is Way Down.
• Media Watchdog Finds 81 Percent of Political Late Night Jokes Targeted Conservatives in 2023.
• “This is the Smartest, Best Informed Account of What Actually Happened on January 6th” – Rep. Higgins Tells Tucker All About Undercover Agents Involved in J6 (VIDEO).
• Biden Brags About *Mostly Peaceful* Pro-Trump J6 Protesters Being Sentenced to 840 Years in Prison (VIDEO).
• DeSantis Says He is Looking Into Ways to Keep Biden Off Florida Ballot: ‘We’re Going to Fight Back’.
• New Report Highlights Green Failure in Europe and Warns America.
• WATCH: Nikki Haley’s Campaign Calls Police on Laura Loomer, Kicks Her Out of Iowa Event.
• FBI Arrests Three J6rs in Pre-Dawn Raid on Anniversary of January 6 Capitol Protest…. THREE YEARS LATER.

The Epoch Times:

• The CCP Is Mired in Multiple Crises Going Into 2024.
• Behind the West’s Collective Failure to Prepare for the Trouble We Now Face.
• Federal Commission Calls on Biden Administration to Tackle China’s Malign Influence in US.

X:

• @kylenabecker - 'Inconvenient Facts' about January 6: Caution: Viewer discretion is advised. This was the moment that the U.S. government was on the verge of being toppled. You might want to have a box of tissues on hand. This is hard to watch. (video)
• @TonyClimate - This massive data tampering by @NOAA at a rural airport in Brazil defies explanation. What justification are they making for this obvious fraud? (graph)
• @songpinganq - Chinese citizens who refuse to sort their garbage will lose 5 social credit points and get fined 50 yuan (US＄7). Facial recognition technology has been deployed in trash bins to encourage people to recycle more. (video) China - Welcome to SkyNet (they really called it that). It's an interlinked system of facial recognition surveillance cameras to crack down anyone considered as an enemy of the State. Now China has 850,000,000 surveillance cameras, half of the world total. (video)
• @The_Real_Fly - Bill Ackman is incredibly disappointed in KKR’s management of Business Insider.
• @WallStreetApes - Here’s A Lesser Known Video From Deep State Nancy Pelosi Entrapment Day. If January 6th Was A Real Insurrection Then Why Are Capitol Police Clearly SMILING While HOLDING DOORS OPEN For Unarmed Protesters? (video) Welcome To The Future, Self Driving Technology. Will Officially Be Used To Self-Repo Your Car. If You Miss A Payment, Your Car Will Self Drive Itself To The Dealer. How Long Before This Technology Is Used When They Don’t Like Your Social Media Posts? You’ll Own Nothing. (video) Let’s Make This The Most Viral Video On X For The January 6th Anniversary. On The Record Testimony Nancy Pelosi BLOCKED Investigations Into Jan 6th. Proof It Was A Deep State Setup. (video)
• @julie_kelly2 - Mind-blowing. @RepClayHiggins says "well over 200" FBI assets were involved in Jan 6 including some dressed as Trump supporters inside the building leading people to key locations in the Capitol. Higgins is a former LEO and veteran--no chance he's making this up. (video)
  
• @TimRunsHisMouth - BLM Riots vs. Jan.6. The only correction would be that the j6 damage was closer to $2.7 million. (table)
• @TheRabbitHole84 - Over 500 riots were recorded in the summer of 2020. These riots, for the most part, have largely been forgotten by Legacy Media. Meanwhile, J6 is still regularly discussed. (map)
• @GenFlynn - Most Americans have zero idea of how big of a deal this actually is (and it’s not good). When will the media ask the tough questions (NEVER!).
• @WallStreetSilv - China burns more coal every year than the rest of the world combined. Why doesn’t Greta ever protest in China? Why doesn’t Bill Gates or Al Gore ever mention that? Instead they talk about shutting down our farmers. China is emitting almost a third of all energy-related greenhouse gases — more than the United States, Europe and Japan combined. (video) Here come the taxes. WSJ announces “The Era of Big Tax is Upon Us" as the lobster meets the trap. (video)
• @BillAckman - Last night, no one at @MIT had a good night’s sleep. Well, every faculty member knows that once their work is targeted by AI, they will be outed. No body of written work in academia can survive the power of AI searching for missing quotation marks, failures to paraphrase appropriately, and/or the failure to properly credit the work of others. 
• @VigilantFox - How many people have died from the COVID-19 vaccines? 17 million globally, according to a study from @denisrancourt and colleagues. The researchers found the fatal toxicity was 1 death per 800 doses across all ages and countries. (video)
  

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 997,917 Reports(+9,212 from prior week) Through November 3rd, 2023.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 102.5 +2.5 basis points.
  
• China Sovereign CDS 65.75 +.75 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 138.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.42%.
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.40 +.04%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 58.3 -.05%.
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index n/a. 
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 15.1 -.12%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.02%.
• S&P 500 futures +.14%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.19%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by financial and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.