Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Afternoon on Rising Fed Rate-Cut Odds, China Stimulus Hopes, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Energy/Defense Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Around Even
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 12.6 +1.2%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .94% -6.0%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 58.4 -2.3%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 170.9 -.40%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.45 -1.8%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 18.3 +5.1% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 105.0 -29.0
  

• Total Put/Call .84 -19.2%

• NYSE Arms 1.36 -14.5% 
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$145.7M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 54.63 -.05%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 334.92 +.5%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 349 +5
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 70.0 +1.8% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 210.97 -.44%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 155.0 basis points -2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 96.98 -.36%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 173.95 -.08%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 120.0 +.8%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.46 +.35%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -16.5 basis points +.75 basis point
  

• TED Spread 21.75 basis points n/a
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.25 unch.
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 139.0 -4.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 958.0 -2.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 75.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.24 -.03%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.35% -2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 129.1 USD/Metric Tonne -.5%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.99 euros/megawatt-hour +3.8%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 7.5 -.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -14.80 +1.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 9.9 -3.7 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(29 of 500 reporting) -7.2% -16.3 percentage points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 243.52 +.06:  Growth Rate +11.9% unch., P/E 19.6 +.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.04% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +0.0% -0.0 percentage points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 290.84 +.11: Growth Rate +36.3% unch., P/E 30.1 +.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .96 unch.
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .56 +7.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -20.0 basis points (2s/10s) +14.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 4Q GDPNow Forecast +2.21% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 67.1% +1.2 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.02% unch.: CPI YoY +2.97% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.27 +4.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for March 20th FOMC meeting: 74.2%(+4.0 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for May 1st meeting: 69.2%(+4.7 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +108 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -5 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +150 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my utility/biotech/tech sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.3%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Airlines -4.0% 2) Electric Vehicles -1.6% 3) Healthcare Providers -1.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• HUM, UNH, TTGT, MSTR, AAL, DAL, UAL and MARA
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) EVLV 2) TPR 3) ALK 4) CPRI 5) BITO
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) MNTS 2) AAL 3) HUM 4) BA 5) SLRN
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth unch.
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +1.9% 2) Computer Services +1.9% 3) Shipping +1.8%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• DOCU, NLOP, GRPN, CCJ, GFI, OSCR, AMRK, ALT, INFY, ACMR, PAAS, TNP, UTI, FRO, TNK, CTSH, CIEN, IDYA, INSW, BK and AU
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) PLAY 2) DB 3) SONY 4) DISH 5) DOCU

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) DOCU 2) AUVI 3) FLXS 4) TWLO 5) ZM
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tuesday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (GS)/3.62
• (MS)/1.07
• (PNC)/2.12
  

After the Close: 

• (IBKR)/1.53
• (PNFP)/1.67
• (PRGS)/.91
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Empire Manufacturing for Jan. is estimated to rise to -4.3 versus -14.5 in Dec.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Waller speaking, Taiwan election results, (MNST) investor meeting and the Needham Growth Conference could also impact global trading on Tuesday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +2.7% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.1 +1.1
  
• 4 Sectors Declining, 7 Sectors Rising
• 54.3% of Issues Advancing, 43.1% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.30 -18.2% 
• Non-Block Money Flow +$142.4M
  
• 88 New 52-Week Highs, 13 New Lows
• 63.2%(+1.5%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 60.0 +4.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 58.4 -2.3%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 136.66 -.58%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,646.5 +.29%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 71.0 (Greed) unch.
• 1-Day Vix 10.5 -5.5%
  
• Vix 12.8 +2.7%
  
• Total Put/Call .81 -22.1%

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 97.0 -2.75 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 61.25 -1.75 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 132.0 USD/Metric Tonne -1.7%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.2 -.05%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 60.8 +1.7%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 14.3 +.34%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.67%.

• S&P 500 futures -.17%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.15%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.