Wednesday, January 24, 2024

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:  

Zero Hedge:

Wall Street Journal:

MarketWatch.com:
Fox News:
TheGatewayPundit.com:

The Epoch Times:

X:
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 98.5 -3.75 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 63.75 -1.0 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 136.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.6%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 40.88 -.03%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 63.5 -.8%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 14.1 +.09%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.11%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.01%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.05%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Earnings Outlook Optimism, China Stimulus, US Economic "Soft-Landing" Hopes, Tech/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.9 +2.7%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .37% -20.7%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 62.9 +2.0%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 173.1 -.27%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.5 -.13%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 17.3 +1.4% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 154.0 -6.0
  • Total Put/Call .90 unch.
  • NYSE Arms 1.24 +73.6% 
  • NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$55.8M 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 55.64 +.47%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 321.64 -1.32%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 331 +14
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 68.25 -2.0% 
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 198.68 -1.94%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 156.0 basis points -1.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 99.5 -2.3%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 179.7 -.78%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 123.3 -1.5%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.48 +.33%
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -13.75 basis points +2.75 basis points
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 6.25 basis points +.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.25 +.25 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 149.0 -1.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 917.0 -13.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 71.0 -1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 40.9 +.19%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.36% +1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 136.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.6%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 28.93 euros/megawatt-hour +6.3%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 16.8 +8.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -4.7 +6.7 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index .3 -.4 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(83 of 500 reporting) -1.3% +1.4 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 243.89 -.04:  Growth Rate +10.2% unch., P/E 20.1 +.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 11.67% -3.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +1,629.0% n/a percentage points
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 293.11 +.27: Growth Rate +37.4% +.1 percentage point, P/E 30.8 -.1
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .96 +2.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .24 -44.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -20.25 basis points (2s/10s) +4.5 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 4Q GDPNow Forecast +2.38% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 65.0% +2.7 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.02% unch.: CPI YoY +2.96% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.30 +1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for March 20th FOMC meeting: 60.4%(+7.5 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for May 1st meeting: 54.6%(+3.4 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +163 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +234 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +115 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value -.3%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Alt Energy -2.4% 2) Gold & Silver -1.8% 3) Telecom -1.6%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • CART, RTO, IRBT, TDY, DDOG, VBTX, SNDX, KMB, BKR, CNMD, SRAD, DD and DWAC
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) MMM 2) UBS 3) RUM 4) BKR 5) DD
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) MVST 2) BB 3) VTNR 4) CHPT 5) EXFY
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth +.9%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Oil Service +2.8% 2) Semis +2.3% 3) Disk Drives +2.2%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • KURA, NFLX, DOMO, ASML, TNGX, TXT, SAP, TEL, AXS, SPR, VIPS, SMCI, FHN, AMD, RYTM, SPNT, WEAV, ASC, SF, SFNC, FCX, PGR, GD, STNG, GEO, INOD, APH, KMPR, AXSM, EDU, OSCR, NVDA, HAL, GSL, GNK, CHX, RDY, LBRT, NOV, YUMC, KROS, FUTU, DKNG, ALL, GOGL, YOU, BIDU, TAL, PAM, XPRO, MRVL and ZIM
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) DD 2) EWH 3) NFLX 4) ASML 5) MMM
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) NFLX 2) TEL 3) BZUN 4) GD 5) PGR

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (ALK)/.18
  • (AAL)/.11
  • (BX)/.96
  • (CMCSA)/.79
  • (DOW)/.40
  • (HUM)/.89
  • (MKC)/.79
  • (MBLY)/.27
  • (NEE)/.49
  • (NOC)/5.80
  • (SHW)/1.80
  • (LUV)/.12
  • (STM)/.95
  • (UNP)/2.58
  • (VLO)/2.94
  • (XEL)/.85
After the Close: 
  • (COF)/2.65
  • (FICO)/5.06
  • (INTC)/.45
  • (KLAC)/5.91
  • (LHX)/3.31
  • (OLN)/.20
  • (V)/2.34
  • (WAL)/1.68
  • (WDC)/-1.12
  • (WY)/.14
Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

  • The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for Dec. is estimated to rise to .06 versus .01 in Nov.
  • 4Q GDP QoQ is estimated to rise +2.0% versus +4.9% in 3Q.
  • 4Q Personal Consumption is estimated to rise +2.5% versus a +3.1% gain in 3Q.
  • 4Q GDP Price Index is estimated to rise +2.2% versus a +3.3% gain in 3Q.
  • 4Q Core PCE Price Index QoQ is estimated to rise +2.0% versus a +2.0% gain in 3Q. 
  • The Advance Goods Trade Balance for Dec. is estimated at -$88.7B versus -$89.3B in Nov.
  • Retail Inventories MoM for Dec. is estimated unch. versus a -.1% decline in Nov.
  • Wholesale Inventories MoM for Dec. is estimated to fall -.2% versus a -.2% decline in Nov.
  • Durable Goods Orders for Dec. is estimated to rise +1.5% versus a +5.4% gain in Nov.
  • Durables Ex Transports for Dec. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.4% gain in Nov.
  • Cap Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex-Air for Dec. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.8% gain in Nov.
  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to rise to 200K versus 187K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims is estimated to rise to 1820K versus 1806K prior.

10:00 am EST

  • New Home Sales MoM for Dec. is estimated to rise to 649K versus 590K in Nov.

11:00 am EST

  • The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for Jan. is estimated to fall to -3.0 versus -1.0 in Dec.

Upcoming Splits 

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Balance Sheet report, 7Y T-Note auction, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (APD) annual meeting, (VVV) annual meeting, (JBL) general meeting, (POST) annual meeting and the (WBA) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +23.9% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.2 -1.4
  • 5 Sectors Declining, 6 Sectors Rising
  • 56.9% of Issues Advancing, 40.7% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.22 +69.4% 
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$150.1M
  • 123 New 52-Week Highs, 5 New Lows
  • 61.8%(+.5%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 61.0 +4.0
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 63.9 +2.1%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 139.1 +.7%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,280.8 +1.1%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 77.0 (Extreme Greed) +4.0
  • 1-Day Vix 9.0 +4.9%
  • Vix 12.7 +1.4%
  • Total Put/Call .87 -3.3%