Friday, November 01, 2024

Evening Headlines

Around X:

  • @elonmusk
  • “If freedom of speech is taken away, then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter.” ― George Washington. Yeah. (pic)
  • @DerrickEvans4WV
  • @Athan_K
  • @TaraBull808
  • @LauraLoomer
  • @BillboardChris
  • @MTGrepp
  • @LaraLogan
  • @CollinRugg
  • @bennyjohnson
  • @Libsoftiktok
  • @greg_price11
  • @InsiderGeo
  • The US Ministry of Defense announced a $425 million aid package to Ukraine. Ammunition for NASAMS and HIMARS; Stinger missiles; equipment and ammunition to counter unmanned aerial systems (c-UAS); air-to-ground ammunition; 155-mm and 105-mm artillery shells; tube-launched missiles with optical tracking and guided guidance (TOW); Javelin and AT-4 anti-tank complexes; Stryker armored personnel carriers; small arms and ammunition; medical equipment; equipment and ammunition for explosive works; spare parts, auxiliary equipment, services, training and transportation.
  • @nicksortor
  • @_Rob_29
  • @BehizyTweets
  • @mtgeenee
  • @ImMeme0
  • @JeffClarkUS
  • @WallStreetSilv
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @johncardillo
  • @pepesgrandma
  • @AlMeyer19
  • Last night in Levittown, PA, there were no lights, & people were forced to vote by cell phone light. Today, in Bucks, we are seeing wait times of 5 + hours to vote. More of the same tonight! Bucks election officials did the bare minimum. VOTER SUPPRESSION! STAY IN LINE! (video)
  • @amuse
  • @MJTruthUltra
  • @RickyDoggin
  • @DC_Draino
  • @VigilantFox 
  • @shaunmmaguire 
  • @CarolineWren
  • @CharlieKirk11 
  • @EricLDaugh

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Fed Rate Cut Hopes, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Pre-Election Window-Dressing, Medical/Airlines Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.02 -.39%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.51% -3.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 102.1 USD/Metric Tonne -.04%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 39.20 euros/megawatt-hour -3.5%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 31.7 -6.9 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 4.7 +.4 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.1 +.2 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(351 of 500 reporting) +8.7% -.4 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 268.44 -.17:  Growth Rate +15.3% +.2 percentage point, P/E 21.5 +.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.70% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +25.7% +1.0 percentage point
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 373.03 +.61: Growth Rate +31.2% +.4 percentage point, P/E 31.6 +.3
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .54 -21.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.10 -5.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 15.5 basis point (2s/10s) +4.75 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +2.32% -34.0 basis points
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 36.8% -4.7 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +2.56% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.33 unch.
  • Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th FOMC meeting: 81.9%(+6.8 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th meeting: 47.6%(+4.3 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 4.75-5.0%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +647 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +9 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +80 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial/biotech/consumer discretionary sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Value unch.
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Utilities -1.3% 2) REITs -.8% 3) Gold & Silver -.8%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • CSTL, GEO, ZYME, MOD, ACT, IMO, NSP, CTRA, ARCB, KTB, MDU, ETR, EVER, MTG, BJRI, WGS, CVNA, MSTR, TDS, WEAV, W, CAMT, AMCR, RDN, FOXF, VRRM, AES, NVT, ONTO, SMCI, ESNT, RMAX, AEHR, DBRG and MYGN
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) XRX 2) EMR 3) DBRG 4) TEAM 5) CAR
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) EPIX 2) CMLS 3) DBRG 4) MYGN 5) ESNT
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) XLF 2) XLE 3) XLK 4) XAR 5) XLV

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth +.9%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Airlines +1.9% 2) Medical Equipment +1.7% 3) Restaurants +1.5%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • TILE, PRLB, MDGL, TEAM, MD, ADMA, WAT, AMSC, XMTR, MBLY, CAR, BTSG, CHTR, SEM, LBRDK, HALO, IDCC, SNCY, COHU, MCS, VERA, WSC, POWL, CRSP, LULU, ROOT, HIMS, SKYW, INTC, CAH, GTLS, FTAI, PTLO, AMZN, TGTX, COCO, MTZ, MGA, PZZA, PENG, DELL, TWLO, BHE, GTLS, DAY, ABT, SNAP, MRVL, MCK, FSLR, CSIQ, CHD, NTGR, GO, LECO, A, CMG, SIRI and AOSL
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) TEAM 2) DBRG 3) ARDX 4) LEN 5) DHI
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) TILE 2) GSAT 3) PRLB 4) TEAM 5) WAT
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XLI 2) IGF 3) XLY 4) RING 5) MAGS
Charts:

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (AMG)/4.84
  • (BNTX)/-1.47
  • (CEG)/2.66
  • (FOXA)/1.13
  • (KRYS)/.99
  • (MAR)/2.31
  • (PEG)/.87
  • (YUMC)/.66
  • (ZTS)/1.46
After the Close: 
  • (AIG)/1.10
  • (ANDE)/.43
  • (BWXT)/.77
  • (AVB)/2.72
  • (CRUS)/2.02
  • (CLF)/-.31
  • (FANG)/4.02
  • (FN)/2.38
  • (FWRD)/-.17
  • (GT)/.22
  • (ILMN)/.88
  • (LSCC)/.24
  • (NXPI)/3.43
  • (PLTR)/.09
  • (SANM)/1.36
  • (WYNN)/1.04
Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

  • Factory Orders for Sept. is estimated to fall -.5% versus a -.2% decline in Aug.
  • Final Durable Goods Orders readings for Sept.

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The 3Y T-Note auction and the CB Employment Trends Index for Oct. could also impact global trading on Monday.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +2.8% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.0 +1.3
  • 2 Sectors Declining, 9 Sectors Rising
  • 63.7% of Issues Advancing, 34.0% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.07 +9.2%
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$110.5M
  • 51 New 52-Week Highs, 29 New Lows
  • 56.3% (+1.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 60.0 +1.0
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 62.1 +2.6%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 235.4 +1.7%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 20,049.0 +.63%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 52.0 (NEUTRAL) +5.0
  • 1-Day Vix 10.8 -43.8%
  • Vix 21.5 -7.3%
  • Total Put/Call .95 -4.0%