Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.4%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -2.9% 2) Alt Energy -2.2% 3) Airlines -1.9%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• STRL, ENPH, STRO, ENPH, DASH, STRO, XP, POET, PKX, ORLA, SSTK, MWH, SVM, FUTU, ELE, OKLO, RBLX, IDR, PPTA, INOD, INFQ, FLNC, VPG, AMRC, NNE, OBE, CGEM, CHWY, AYA, SHAZ, HSAI, VELO, DXYZ, UEC and BLBD

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) SWKS 2) KVYO 3) CARR 4) NXE 5) GFS

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) LUXE 2) NUAI 3) PINS 4) CHWY 5) XP

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) ARKK 2) XLF 3) XLY 4) SILJ 5) IYW

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.1%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Semis +1.6% 2) Pharma +1.4% 3) Shipping +1.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• BKKT, ALAB, AGYS, CMBT, RVI, RXO, REPX, CRDO, MXL, WYFI, HIMX, ACMR, DRTS, SIMO, CLSK, RLAY, MU, AZTA, XPEL, HTLD, BEKE, LPTH, SHAK, OPCH, BLSH, UMC, FIVN, PENG, AS, AVTX, KRUS, ARM, WHR, DLO, SFM, RGEN, BKSY, TECH, SNOW, TSEM, KEP, AIP, BAP, CRTO, AMT, KR and BRC

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) BKKT 2) AMPG 3) CC 4) ATI 5) SMMT 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) NXXT 2) AGYS 3) AMST 4) RXO 5) WAY

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) IGV 2) XLI 3) KRE 4) SOXX 5) IBB

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (ADI)/2.89
• (HAS)/1.20
• (LOW)/2.97
• (ROIV)/-.29
• (TGT)/1.47
• (TJX)/1.02
• (VFC)/-.01 

After the Close: 

• (ELF)/.29
• (ENS)/2.99
• (INTU)/12.57
• (NVDA)/1.75
• (URBN)/1.14 

Economic Releases 

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -2,815,330 barrels versus a -4,306,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -2,656,750 barrels versus a -4,084,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -1,307,700 barrels versus a +190,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.95% versus a +1.6% gain prior. 

2:00 pm EST

• The April 29th FOMC Meeting Minutes. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Barr speaking, 20Y T-Bond auction, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, JPMorgan TMT Conference, RBC Healthcare Conference, Wolfe Transport/Industrials Conference, (BLK) annual meeting, (FE) annual meeting, (ZTS) annual meeting, (GEV) annual meeting, (CLH) annual meeting, (ODFL) annual meeting, (H) annual meeting, (MCD) annual meeting, (CAR) annual meeting, (SFM) annual meeting, (BG) annual meeting, (AAP) annual meeting, (MXL) annual meeting, (MSTR) investor meeting, (RS) annual meeting, (AMZN) annual meeting, (ALGN) annual meeting, (RKLB) annual meeting, (C) annual meeting, (KSS) annual meeting and the Jefferies Automotive Aftermarket Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +9.3% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 15.5 +.6 
• 5 Sectors Rising, 6 Sectors Declining
• 31.0% of Issues Advancing, 66.6% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .59 -7.8%
• Non-Block Money Flow -$129.1M
  
• 45 New 52-Week Highs, 100 New Lows
• 49.9% (-2.9%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 47.5 -1.1

Polymarket: 

• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 7.0% unch.
• Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by June 30th 48.0% +3.0 percentage points
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30th 34.0% +9.0 percentage points 
• US Invades Iran before 2027 28.0% -4.0 percentage points

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 124.6 +1.2%
• Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 86.0 -4.0
• Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 98.0% unch.
• US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 458. -.5 basis point
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 251.8 -1.9%
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 150.4 -1.6%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 61.0 (GREED) -1.0
• 1-Day Vix 11.7 -10.5%
• Vix 17.9 +.6%
  
• Total Put/Call .76 -3.8%

Tuesday Watch

Around X:

• @Business  

• Russian President Putin is set to travel to Beijing for talks with Chinese President Xi in his first foreign visit of the year, with the war in Iran offering an opportunity for the two countries to deepen energy links. 
• Supercharged gains in a handful of companies and weak market breadth are stoking concerns that the world’s hottest stock market is overheating in some pockets.
• Rising US bond yields pose a threat to Asia’s stock rally, as growing inflation fears offset ongoing optimism over benefits from the AI boom.
• Google is set to create an AI cloud business with Blackstone, aiming to compete with companies like CoreWeave, according to the Wall Street Journal.
• The Trump administration is poised to roll out a plan for trading digital versions of securities that could reshape the landscape of the American stock market as it continues to loosen the rules for free-wheeling crypto markets.
• Here’s the latest news and analysis on the oil market. 
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here’s what you need to know to start your day.     

• @ZeroHedge

• Hundreds Of Subpoenas Are Targeting The Russian Collusion Hoax.
• Trump Demands DOJ Probe Of Maryland's 500,000 "Illegal" Mail-In Ballots.
• Wayfair CFO's Muted Home-Goods Demand Outlook Offers More Bad News For Realtors.
• Combined NextEra-Dominion Would Have 130-GW Large-Load Pipeline.
• The Great American Squeeze Of 2026.
• 6 Questions An Honest, Intelligent Reporter Would Ask Dr. Fauci About COVID-19.
• BREAKING: San Diego police confirm 2 male teenage suspects, ages 17 and 19, died from what appear to be self-inflicted gunshot wounds following a shooting at the Islamic Center of San Diego.
• *TRUMP: MIDEAST ASKED IF IRAN ATTACK COULD BE DELAYED 2 OR 3 DAYS. *TRUMP, ON IRAN ATTACK PAUSE: COUNTRIES THINK DEAL IS CLOSE. *TRUMP: IRAN HAS TO PUT THE NUCLEAR TERMS DOWN IN WRITING.
• Netanyahu facing his biggest deficit to Bennett ahead of the October election.
• Momentum is having its worst two-day selloff since 2022, posting back-to-back 5%+ unwinds, also first time since 2022: GS.
• "It's All One Big Trade": Momentum Euphoria Is Cracking, Here's How Goldman Is Hedging The Coming Hangover.
• BREAKING: A fast-moving wildfire has erupted in Ventura County, CA, triggering evacuation orders and warnings across much of Simi Valley. Cal Fire says the blaze — now called the “Sandy Fire” — has already grown to nearly 200 acres.
• Graham Calls For 'Short But Forceful' New Strikes On Iran, Complains Waiting For 'Status Quo' Talks Looks Weak. 
• There should be a running total at the close of every trading day: how much did US inside traders make vs Iranian inside traders. 
• Renewed Iran Headline Roulette Triggers Market Mayhem: AI Angst, Momo Meltdown, Bitcoin Battered.   

• @CNBC

• Asia markets set to rise as oil eases after Trump delays planned Iran strike.
• Tuesday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.5% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 75.0 -1.25 basis points. 
• China Sovereign CDS 42.5 +.5 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 108.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.1%. 
• Crude Oil 107.30/bbl. -1.3% 
• Gold 4569.3 USD/t oz. +.2%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.66 +.09%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.30 -.05%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 123.61 +.31%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.60% +1.0 basis point.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 4.08% -2.0 basis points. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.2 -.6%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.39%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.07%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.10%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on Mideast War Resumption Fears, Global Supply Chain Disruption Worries, Rising Long-Term Rates, Alt Energy/Tech Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 54.0 -.2%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 72.1 -1.4% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .29 +6.0 basis points
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.11 +3.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 60.3 -1.2%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 161.1 +.9%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 64.6 +.8% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .7 unch.
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 86.0 -.8

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 45.1 +.1

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -52.2 +1.1

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 32.6 -9.4
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(454 of 500 reporting) +25.1% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 355.29 +1.38:  Growth Rate +28.2% +.5 percentage point, P/E 20.8 -.4
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.38% +2.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +62.1% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 862.98 +4.63: Growth Rate +118.0% +1.2 percentage points, P/E 19.8 -.7 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .98 -4.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 53.5 basis points (2s/10s) +6.75 basis points
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 182.5 +.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 50.0 euros/megawatt-hour -.4%
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 12.9% -2.3 percentage points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +4.0% unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.60% +1.0 basis point
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.14 unch.

• Highest target rate probability for July 29th FOMC meeting: 94.6% (unch.) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 16th meeting: 80.6%(-.6 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +490 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -44 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +10 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my industrial/tech/consumer discretionary/biotech sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long